Predicting biodiversity change: outside the climate envelope, beyond the species-area curve

Efforts to anticipate threats to biodiversity take the form of species richness predictions (SRPs) based on simple correlations with current climate and habitat area. We review the major approaches that have been used for SRP, species-area curves and climate envelopes, and suggest that alternative research efforts may provide more understanding and guidance for management. Extinction prediction suffers from a number of limitations related to data and the novelty of future environments. We suggest additional attention to (1) identification of variables related to biodiversity that are diagnostic and potentially more predictable than extinction, (2) constraints on species dispersal and reproduction that will determine population persistence and range shifts, including limited sources or potential immigrants for many regions, and (3) changes in biotic interactions and phenology. We suggest combinations of observational and experimental approaches within a framework available for ingesting heterogeneous data sources. Together, these recommendations amount to a shift in emphasis from prediction of extinction numbers to identification of vulnerabilities and leading indicators of change, as well as suggestions for surveillance tools needed to evaluate important variables and the experiments likely to provide most insight.     

Mortality in rural locations after severe injuries from motor vehicle crashes

BackgroundMortality from traffic crashes is often higher in rural regions, and this may be attributable to decreased survival probability after severe injury.MethodsData were obtained from the National Automotive Sampling System – General Estimates System (NASS-GES) for 2002–2008. Using weighted survey logistic regression, three injury outcomes were analyzed: (a) Death overall, (b) Severe injury (incapacitating or fatal), and (c) Death, after severe injury. Models controlled for (pre-crash) person, event, and county level factors.ResultsThe sample included 883,473 motorists. Applying weights, this represented a population of 98,411,993. Only 2% of the weighted sample sustained a severe injury, and 9% of these severely injured motorists died. The probability of death overall and the probability of severe injury increased with older age, safety belt nonuse, vehicle damage, high speed, and early morning crashes . Males were less likely to be severely injured, but more likely to die if severely injured. Motorists in southern states were more likely to have severe injuries, but not more likely to die if severely injured. Motorists who crashed in very rural counties were significantly more likely to die overall, and were more likely to die if severely injured.ConclusionsMotorists with severe injury are more likely to die in rural areas, after controlling for person- and event-specific factors.     

灰色关联分析与内梅罗指数法在克钦湖水体重金属评价中的应用

以扎龙湿地克钦湖水体重金属监测资料为基础,在湖内均匀布设了12个采样点,用电感耦合等离子体质谱仪法测定各点的重金属质量浓度.水体中Mn、Cu、Cd、As、Pb和Se的平均质量浓度分别为2.23 mg/L、0.65 mg/L、0.12 mg/L、5.98 mg/L、0.48 mg/L、0.13 mg/L.应用灰色关联分析方法和内梅罗水污染指数法综合评价克钦湖的水环境质量.结果表明:灰色关联分析方法体现了各评价因子的综合影响,得出克钦湖总体达到V类水质标准,水体受到严重污染;内梅罗指数法反映了各重金属元素的污染程度,由大到小依次为As、Mn、Pb、Se、Cd、Cu.应用两种方法从不同角度分析水体重金属的污染程度,并得出污染原因,最后提出扎龙湿地克钦湖生态环境保护对策.     

Genetic divergence of Maldivian and Micronesian demes of the damselfishes Stegastes nigricans,Chrysiptera biocellata,C. glauca and C. leucopoma (Pomacentridae)

Samples representing the damselfishes (Perciformes: Pomacentridae) Stegastes nigricans, Chrysiptera biocellata, C. glauca, and C. leucopoma from North Male Atoll, Republic of Maldives, and Guam, Southern Marianas, were surveyed electrophoretically. A sample representing C. leucopoma from Ngemelis Island, Republic of Palau, was included in the analysis to provide a within-Micronesia comparison. On average, products of 23 presumptive protein-coding loci were examined in each sample. In comparisons of Maldivian and Guamanian samples, absolute or virtually fixed allelic differences were detected at: (1) ADA ^* and PEPS ^* for Stegastes nigricans; (2) ADA ^*, AAT-1 ^*, AAT-2 ^*, and mMDH ^* for C. biocellata, and; (3) ADA ^*, AAT-1 ^*, and AAT-2 ^* for C. glauca. At three polymorphic loci, ADA ^*, sMDH-1 ^*, and sMDH-2 ^*, similar allele frequencies were found in Palauan and Guamanian samples representing C. leucopoma, suggesting that these samples share a gene pool. Significantly different allele frequencies at ADA ^* and sMDH-1 ^* and a virtually fixed allelic difference at sMDH-2 ^* were detected between the Maldivian samples and each of the Micronesian samples representing C. leucopoma. The observed patterns of allele frequency differentiation suggest that Maldivian and Micronesian samples of each of the four study species represent separate demes.     

A comparative study of prognostic MM5 meteorological modeling with aircraft, wind profiler, lidar, tethered balloon and RASS data over Philadelphia during a 1999 summer episode

This study presents a comparative evaluation of the prognostic meteorological Fifth Generation NCAR Pennsylvania State University Mesoscale Model (MM5) using data from the Northeast Oxidant and Particle Study (NE-OPS) research program collected over Philadelphia, PA during a summer episode in 1999. A set of model simulations utilizing a nested grid of 36 km, 12 km and 4 km horizontal resolutions with 21 layers in the vertical direction was performed for a period of 101 h from July 15, 1999; 12 UTC to July 19, 1999; 17 UTC. The model predictions obtained with 4 km horizontal grid resolution were compared with the NE-OPS observations. Comparisons of model temperature with aircraft data revealed that the model exhibited slight underestimation as noted by previous investigators. Comparisons of model temperature with aircraft and tethered balloon data indicate that the mean absolute error varied up to 1.5 °C. The comparisons of model relative humidity with aircraft and tethered balloon indicate that the mean relative error varied from –11% to –22% for the tethered balloon and from –5% to –30% for the aircraft data. The mean relative error for water vapor mixing ratio with respect to the lidar data exhibited a negative bias consistent with the humidity bias corresponding to aircraft and tethered balloon data. The tendency of MM5 to produce estimates of very low wind speeds, especially in the early-mid afternoon hours, as noted by earlier investigators, is seen in this study also. It is indeed true that the initial fields as well as the fields utilized in the data assimilation also contribute to some of the differences between the model and observations. Studies such as these which compare the grid averaged mean state variables with observations have inherent difficulties. Despite the above limitations, the results of the present study broadly conform to the general traits of MM5 as noted by earlier investigators.     

Cu,Cr and As distribution in soils adjacent to pressure-treated decks,fences and poles

Chromated copper arsenate (CCA)-treated wood has been widely used in the Southeastern United States to protect wood products from microbial and fungal decay. The aims of this study were to (1). determine the distribution of arsenic (As), chromium (Cr), and copper (Cu), in soils surrounding CCA-treated wood structures such as decks, fences and poles; and (2). evaluate the impacts of these structures on As, Cr and Cu loading of the soils. Profile and lateral soil samples were collected under CCA-treated decks and adjacent to poles and fences. The results showed elevation of As, Cr and Cu concentrations close to and under the structures, with mean As concentrations as high as 23 mg x kg(-1) close to utility poles compared with less than 3 mg x kg (-1) at distances of about 1.5 m away. Concentrations of As, Cr, and Cu decreased with depth in areas close to CCA-treated poles. However, these results were only apparent in relatively new structures. A combination of weathering and leaching with time may have reduced the impact in older poles. Increased concentrations of As, Cu and Cr were also observed close to CCA-treated decks and fences, with age showing a similar impact. These results are helpful for CCA-treated wood product users to determine the safe use of these structures.