Uncertainty requirements in radiative forcing of climate change

The continuing increase in atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO2) makes it essential that climate sensitivity, the equilibrium change in global mean surface temperature that would result from a given radiative forcing, be quantified with known uncertainty. Present estimates are quite uncertain, 3 +/- 1.5 K for doubling of CO2. Model studies examining climate response to forcing by greenhouse gases and aerosols exhibit large differences in sensitivities and imposed aerosol forcings that raise questions regarding claims of their having reproduced observed large-scale changes in surface temperature over the 20th century. Present uncertainty in forcing, caused largely by uncertainty in forcing by aerosols, precludes meaningful model evaluation by comparison with observed global temperature change or empirical determination of climate sensitivity. Uncertainty in aerosol forcing must be reduced at least three-fold for uncertainty in climate sensitivity to be meaningfully reduced and bounded.     

The Rossby Centre Regional Atmospheric Climate Model part II: application to the Arctic climate

The Rossby Centre regional climate model (RCA2) has been integrated over the Arctic Ocean as part of the international ARCMIP project. Results have been compared to observations derived from the SHEBA data set. The standard RCA2 model overpredicts cloud cover and downwelling longwave radiation, during the Arctic winter. This error was improved by introducing a new cloud parameterization, which significantly improves the annual cycle of cloud cover. Compensating biases between clear sky downwelling longwave radiation and longwave radiation emitted from cloud base were identified. Modifications have been introduced to the model radiation scheme that more accurately treat solar radiation interaction with ice crystals. This leads to a more realistic representation of cloud-solar radiation interaction. The clear sky portion of the model radiation code transmits too much solar radiation through the atmosphere, producing a positive bias at the top of the frequent boundary layer clouds. A realistic treatment of the temporally evolving albedo, of both sea-ice and snow, appears crucial for an accurate simulation of the net surface energy budget. Likewise, inclusion of a prognostic snow-surface temperature seems necessary, to accurately simulate near-surface thermodynamic processes in the Arctic.     

Influence of kinetic sorption and diffusion on pesticide movement through aggregated soils

Laboratory studies were carried out to investigate solute leaching at different times from application in relation to temperature and initial soil moisture. Aggregates of a heavy clay soil were treated with a non-interactive solute (bromide) and the herbicides chlorotoluron, isoproturon and triasulfuron. The soil was incubated at 90% field capacity and either 5 or 15 degrees C. The influence of application to initially dry and initially wet aggregates on the behaviour of isoproturon was also investigated. At intervals, samples were either leached in small columns, centrifuged to characterise the fraction of chemical available in pore water under natural moisture conditions or extracted with organic solvents to assess total residues in soil. Bromide concentrations in leachate and in pore water extracted by centrifugation were constant with time. In contrast, availability for leaching and concentration in pore water of the herbicides decreased with increasing time from application in soil incubated at 15 degrees C. The effect of residence time was much smaller at 5 than at 15 degrees C. At the higher temperature, pesticide concentrations in leachate and pore water declined faster than would be expected from degradation alone, probably due to slow diffusion of the pesticides into soil aggregates where they are less available for leaching and/or slow sorption-desorption. The faster decline in availability for leaching at 15 than at 5 degrees C was attributed to faster degradation of the readily available fraction. There was no significant influence of initial soil moisture on either the leaching behaviour of isoproturon or its availability in soil water.     

PCB and PAH releases from power stations and waste incineration processes in the UK

This study focused on emissions of polychlorinated biphenyls (PCB) and polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAH) from incineration and power generation processes. Increased concern over human exposure to both classes of compounds has meant that environmental regulators need to assess the contribution made by emissions from regulated processes to human exposure. In the first part of an assessment in the UK we reviewed literature data on emissions of PCB, focusing on the dioxin-like PCB assigned toxic equivalency factors by the World Health Organization, and PAH. The literature study was supplemented by a series of plant tests to gather initial real plant data. Literature data were limited and the lack of standard protocols for measurement and reporting of both PCB and PAH meant that few data sets were comparable. Levels of dioxin-like PCB reported in the literature and measured in UK plant tests showed that well-controlled modem combustion plants with comprehensive pollution controls gave low emissions, typically about 5-10% of the toxic equivalent of the emissions of polychlorinated dibenzodioxins and dibenzofurans at the same plants and below the widely used standard of 0.1 ng TEQ/N m3.     

Comparative toxicity of a zinc salt, zinc powder and zinc oxide to Eisenia fetida, Enchytraeus albidus and Folsomia candida

The pore water zinc concentration and the calcium chloride extracted zinc fraction are higher in the soils spiked with a zinc salt (ZnCl2) compared to soils spiked with zinc oxide or zinc powder. Based on total zinc concentrations in the soil, the acute toxicity of zinc salt to the compost worm Eisenia fetida, the potworm Enchytraeus albidus and the springtail Folsomia candida was lower compared to zinc oxide and zinc powder. However, when expressed on the basis of pore water concentrations or calcium chloride extracted fractions, acute toxicity was higher for zinc salt, which indicated that dermal uptake via the pore water is not the only route of uptake. Chronic toxicity of zinc salt, zinc oxide and zinc powder was similar when based on total concentrations in the soil which again indicates that the pore water route of uptake is not the only route of exposure but that oral uptake is also important.     

Tolerance and acclimation to zinc of Ceriodaphnia dubia

Zinc is an essential metal for all living organisms. However, so far, little or no attention has been paid to the consequences of zinc deficiency or acclimation to this metal during culturing and testing on toxicity test results. In this study, the cladoceran Ceriodaphnia dubia was acclimated for 10 generations to four zinc concentrations ranging from 0 to 100 microg Zn/l and changes in zinc tolerance were monitored using acute (48 h) and chronic (9 days) assays. C. dubia deprived of zinc and acclimated to 13 microg Zn/l had a lower fitness in comparison with organisms acclimated to 50 and 100 microg Zn/l. In the two lowest versus the two highest acclimation concentrations the 9dEC50 values (on immobility) were 358-387 microg Zn/l versus 486-489 microg Zn/l; the mean number of young per female was 11-18 versus 25-32; and the time to first brood was 4.7-5.0 days versus 4.0-4.3 days. Moreover, the coefficient of variation of all parameters tested was highest in the two lowest acclimation concentrations. The results indicate that culturing test animals in media lacking trace metals such as zinc could give rise to animals that are unnaturally sensitive to those same metals daring toxicity tests.     

The contribution from shipping emissions to air quality and acid deposition in Europe

A global three-dimensional Lagrangian chemistry-transport model STOCHEM is used to describe the European regional acid deposition and ozone air quality impacts along the Atlantic Ocean seaboard of Europe, from the SO2, NOx, VOCs and CO emissions from international shipping under conditions appropriate to the year 2000. Model-derived total sulfur deposition from international shipping reaches over 200 mg S m(-2) yr(-1) over the southwestern approaches to the British Isles and Brittany. The contribution from international shipping to surface ozone concentrations during the summertime, peaks at about 6 ppb over Ireland, Brittany and Portugal. Shipping emissions act as an external influence on acid deposition and ozone air quality within Europe and may require control actions in the future if strict deposition and air quality targets are to be met.     

Flame retardants, surfactants and organotins in sediment and mysid shrimp of the Scheldt estuary (The Netherlands)

Sediment and mysids from the Scheldt estuary, one of the largest and most polluted estuaries in Western Europe, were analyzed for a number of contaminants that have been shown to possess endocrine-disrupting activity, i.e. organotins, polybrominated diphenyl ethers (PBDEs), hexabromocyclododecane (HBCD), tetrabromobisphenol A (TBBPA), nonylphenol ethoxylates (NPE) and transformation products, nonylphenol (NP) and nonylphenol ether carboxylates (NPEC). In addition, in vitro estrogenic and androgenic potencies of water and sediment extracts were determined. Total organotin concentrations ranged from 84 to 348 ng/g dw in sediment and 1110 to 1370 ng/g dw in mysid. Total PBDE (excluding BDE-209) concentrations ranged from 14 to 22 ng/g dw in sediment and from 1765 to 2962 ng/g lipid in mysid. High concentrations of BDE-209 (240-1650 ng/g dw) were detected in sediment and mysid (269-600 ng/g lipid). Total HBCD concentrations in sediment and mysid were 14-71 ng/g dw and 562-727 ng/g lipid, respectively. Total NPE concentrations in sediment were 1422 ng/g dw, 1222 ng/g dw for NP and 80 ng/g dw for NPEC and ranged from 430 to 1119 ng/g dw for total NPE and from 206 to 435 ng/g dw for NP in mysid. Significant estrogenic potency, as analyzed using the yeast estrogen assay, was detected in sediment and water samples from the Scheldt estuary, but no androgenic activity was found. This study is the first to report high levels of endocrine disruptors in estuarine mysids.     

Prenatal exclusion of haemophilia a and carrier testing by direct detection of a disease lesion

A novel mutation was detected in the Factor VIII gene of a sporadic case of severe haemophilia A. The lesion, a CGA → TGA transition, converts Arg 795 to Term and adequately accounts for the severe phenotype observed. PCR/direct sequencing was used to confirm the carrier status in the mother. Exclusion of haemophilia A in an at-risk pregnancy was then achieved by demonstration of the absence of this lesion in fetal DNA from a chorionic villus sample. The mutation was also detectable by chemical cleavage of mismatch (CCM), which both confirmed the prenatal diagnosis and established the carrier status of the proband's sister. This example therefore serves to illustrate the potential of direct gene analysis in sporadic cases of haemophilia A and/or in families uninformative for known RFLPs.