Spatial and temporal variability of ambient air toxics data

This paper summarizes information on the spatial and temporal variability of selected air toxics pollutants collected on a national basis primarily for a period encompassing 1990-2003. Spatial information on pollutant concentrations is characterized in terms of within-city and between-city variability. Temporal information is summarized as diurnal and seasonal variability and in multiyear trends. The information on variability is presented in the framework of a larger need for systematic documentation of information on air toxics pollutants to assess progress in air pollution control programs.     

Causal regulations vs. political will: why human zoonotic infections increase despite precautionary bans on animal antibiotics.

Using precautionary principles when facing incomplete facts and causal conjectures raises the possibility of a Faustian bargain. This paper applies systems dynamics based on previously unavailable data to show how well intended precautionary policies for promoting food safety may backfire unless they are informed by quantitative cause-and-effect models of how animal antibiotics affect animal and human health. We focus on European Union and United States formulations of regulatory precaution and then analyze zoonotic infections in terms of the consequences of relying on political will to justify precautionary bans. We do not attempt a political analysis of these issues; rather, we conduct a regulatory analysis of precautionary legal requirements and use Quantitative Risk Assessment (QRA) to assess a set of policy outcomes. Thirty-seven years ago, the Joint Committee on the Use of Antibiotics in Animal Husbandry and Veterinary Medicine (the Swann Report) warned that uncontrolled use of similar antibiotics in humans and food animals could promote the emergence of resistant strains of foodborne bacteria that could endanger human health. Since then, many countries have either banned or restricted antibiotics as feed additives for promoting animal growth. Others, including the United States, have relied on prudent use guidelines and programs that reduce total microbial loads, rather than focusing exclusively on antibiotic-resistant bacteria. In retrospect, the regulatory strategy of banning or restricting animal antibiotic uses has had limited success: it has been followed in many cases by deteriorating animal health and increases in human illnesses and resistance rates. Conversely, a combination of continued prudent use of antibiotics to prevent and control animal infections, together with HACCP and other improvements, has been followed by large improvements in the microbial safety of chickens and other food animals in the United States, leaving both animals and people better off now than they were decades ago. A quantitative risk assessment model of microbiological risks (Campylobacter because of data availability) suggests that these outcomes may be more than coincidental: prudent use of animal antibiotics may actually improve human health, while bans on animal antibiotics, intended to be precautionary, inadvertently may harm human health.     

DECISION PARAMETERS FOR COMBINED USE OF EFFLUENT DISCHARGES,SURFACE FLOWS,AND GROUND WATER1

ABSTRACT: Decision parameters affecting combined use of effluent discharges and surface flows and ground water available at Gillespie Dam on the Gila River in Arizona are identified and analyzed. Hydrologic, economic, legal, and institutional parameters are considered separately and in combination. The interrelationships of irrigation subsystems, water use functions, institutional involvement, economic and legal constraints are illustrated. Recent hydrologic studies indicate that the natural flow of the Gila River will increase with the discharge of Phoenix sewage effluent and then there will be a drastic decline when the Palo Verde Nuclear Generating Station commences in 1985. Competition for any increases in effluent discharges and surface flows could be ameliorated through the combined efforts of existing or reorganized entities resulting in sharing of costs and benefits. The analysis leads to recommendations concerning joint use of facilities, proration of fixed and variable costs, and creation of a mutual water company.     

COMPLEMENTING OBJECTIVE PROCEDURES WITH SUBJECTIVE PRIORS IN WATER RESOURCE PLANNING1

A procedure is outlined which allows consideration of both objective and subjective indicators to establish priorities in plan implementation of water resource development. The objective procedure utilizes stepwise multiple discriminant analysis to predict community performance regarding planned project implementation, based on previous project implementation in the Northeast. The subjective procedure incorporates prior probabilities developed by the planner, based on observation and experience gained through the planning process. The proposed analysis could eliminate waste through better allocation of planning funds to implementation studies exhibiting higher probability of early implementation.     

Effects of mechanical fracturing and experimental trampling on Hawaiian corals

In situ trampling occurred under experimental conditions to quantify the differences in the responses to anthropogenic trampling in four dominant species of Hawaiian corals, Porites compressa, Porites lobata, Montipora capitata, and Pocillopora meandrina. Trampling was simulated daily for a period of nine days at which time further breakage was minimal. Forty treatment colonies produced 559 fragments. Trampling was followed by an 11-month recovery period. Coral colony and fragment mortality was low. All four species were highly tolerant of inflicted damage, suggesting that some species of corals can withstand limited pulse events that allow time for recovery. Growth rates following trampling were significantly lower in the treatment groups for three of the four species. This study demonstrated that very few trampling events can produce significant changes in growth even after a long recovery period. Survivorship of fragments is clearly size- and species-dependent in M. capitata and P. compressa. Smaller fragments (<5 cm) had higher mortality than larger fragments (>5 cm). High breakage rates for M. capitata and P. compressa are consistent with the nearshore, low-energy regions they inhabit—the same environment frequented by skin divers and waders. Mechanical tests were conducted to determine tensile and compressive strengths. Pocillopora meandrina exhibited the strongest skeletal strength, followed in decreasing order by Porites lobata, Porites compressa, and Montipora capitata. The skeletal strength obtained from the experiments correlate with the wave energy present in the environments in the regions they inhabit, suggesting that structural strength of corals is an adaptive response to hydraulic stress.     

Current Status and Temporal Trends in Concentrations of Persistent Toxic Substances in Sport Fish and Juvenile Forage Fish in the Canadian Waters of the Great Lakes

This paper presents a summary of the current status and temporal trends over the past 15 - 20 years in contaminant levels in sport fish and juvenile forage fish in the Canadian waters of the Great Lakes. Fish consumption advisories summarized from the 1995 Guide to Eating Ontario Sport Fish showed that 67% of the 1736 consumption advisories in the Canadian waters of the Great Lakes had no restrictions. In the remaining 33% of the advisories, consumption of sport fish was restricted to 4 meals per month or less. Lake Erie had the fewest consumption restrictions (19%) and Lake Ontario the most (45%). PCBs were the principal contaminants of concern responsible for 47% of the consumption restrictions in the Canadian waters of the Great Lakes and caused the most consumption restrictions in each of the Great Lakes except Lake Superior where toxaphene caused 69% of the consumption restrictions. Concentrations of PCBs in sport fish declined in Lake Huron and Lake Ontario over the period 1976-1994. A decline in mirex concentrations in sport fish from Lake Ontario was also observed over the same time period. Concentrations of Hg in sport fish from Lake St. Clair declined over the period 1970-1994, but mercury in sport fish showed no trend over time in Lake Huron or Lake Ontario over the period 1981-1994. Contaminant levels in juvenile forage fish collected in 1993 and 1994 at 44 locations in the lower Great Lakes were assessed against wildlife protection guidelines. Concentrations that exceeded the Forage Fish Contaminant Index were observed at 17 locations with PCBs being the principal contaminant of concern. PCB concentrations in spottail shiners declined at 12 of 16 locations monitored in the lower Great Lakes over the period 1975-1994.     

Precision Measurements from Very-Large Scale Aerial Digital Imagery

Managers need measurements and resource managers need the length/width of a variety of items including that of animals, logs, streams, plant canopies, man-made objects, riparian habitat, vegetation patches and other things important in resource monitoring and land inspection. These types of measurements can now be easily and accurately obtained from very large scale aerial (VLSA) imagery having spatial resolutions as fine as 1 millimeter per pixel by using the three new software programs described here. VLSA images have small fields of view and are used for intermittent sampling across extensive landscapes. Pixel-coverage among images is influenced by small changes in airplane altitude above ground level (AGL) and orientation relative to the ground, as well as by changes in topography. These factors affect the object-to-camera distance used for image-resolution calculations. ‘ImageMeasurement’ offers a user-friendly interface for accounting for pixel-coverage variation among images by utilizing a database. ‘LaserLOG’ records and displays airplane altitude AGL measured from a high frequency laser rangefinder, and displays the vertical velocity. ‘Merge’ sorts through large amounts of data generated by LaserLOG and matches precise airplane altitudes with camera trigger times for input to the ImageMeasurement database. We discuss application of these tools, including error estimates. We found measurements from aerial images (collection resolution: 5–26 mm/pixel as projected on the ground) using ImageMeasurement, LaserLOG, and Merge, were accurate to centimeters with an error less than 10%. We recommend these software packages as a means for expanding the utility of aerial image data.     

Shadow attenuation with high dynamic range images

Shadow often interferes with accurate image analysis. To mitigate shadow effects in near-earth imagery (2 m above ground level), we created high dynamic range (HDR) nadir images and used them to measure grassland ground cover. HDR composites were created by merging three differentially exposed images spanning a wide exposure range and resulted in lightened shadows. HDR images showed more detail; reduced the numbers of pure black, pure white, and pixels visually indistinguishable from black and white; reapportioned skewed luma values towards a normal distribution; and increased the Euclidean distance between litter and bare ground RGB values--allowing increased feature separation; all of which facilitated an increase in real feature classification through manual image analysis. Drawbacks to the method included decreased image sharpness due to minor misalignment of images or moving vegetation, time required to create HDR images, and difficulty with acquiring primary images from a moving platform. We conclude that HDR imagery can provide more accurate measurements of bare soil cover for ecosystem monitoring and assessment.     

Managing Baltic Sea fisheries under contrasting production and predation regimes: ecosystem model analyses

Based on an earlier published ecosystem model, we have explored possible effects of different management scenarios for the Baltic Sea. The scenarios include an oligotrophication of the system, a drastic increase in the number of seals, and changes in the fishery management. From these simulations we conclude that fisheries, seals, and eutrophication all have strong and interacting impacts on the ecosystem. These interactions call for integrated management. The modeling highlights the potential for conflicts among management mandates such as flourishing fisheries, rebuilt seal populations, and substantially reduced eutrophication. The results also suggest that fisheries management reference points have to be adjusted in response to changes in the presence of natural predators or ecosystem productivity.