Species abundance distributions result from body size-energetics relationships

Abundance distributions are a central characteristic of ecosystems. Certain distributions have been derived from theoretical models of community organization, and therefore the fit of data to these distributions has been proposed as a test of these theories. However, it is shown here that the geometric sequence distribution can be derived directly from the empirical relationship between population density and body size, with the assumption of random or uniform body size distributions on a log scale (as holds at local scales). The geometric sequence model provides a good to excellent fit to empirical data. The presence of noise in the relationship between population density and body size creates a curve that begins to approximate a lognormal species abundance distribution as the noise term increases. For continental-scale data in which the body size distribution is not flat, the result of sampling tends again toward the lognormal. Repeat sampling over time smooths out species population fluctuations and damps out the noise, giving a more precise geometric sequence abundance distribution. It is argued that the direct derivation of this distribution from empirical relationships gives it priority over distributions derived from complex theoretical community models.     

A Bayesian approach to retransformation bias in transformed regression

Ecological data analysis often involves fitting linear or nonlinear equations to data after transforming either the response variable, the right side of the equation, or both, so that the standard suite of regression assumptions are more closely met. However, inference is usually done in the natural metric and it is well known that retransforming back to the original metric provides a biased estimator for the mean of the response variable. For the normal linear model, fit under a log-transformation, correction factors are available to reduce this bias, but these factors may not be generally applicable to all model forms or other transformations. We demonstrate that this problem is handled in a straightforward manner using a Bayesian approach, which is general for linear and nonlinear models and other transformations and model error structures. The Bayesian framework provides a predictive distribution for the response variable so that inference can be made at the mean, or over the entire distribution to incorporate the predictive uncertainty.     

Applied tracer tests in fractured rock: Can we predict natural gradient solute transport more accurately than fracture and matrix parameters?

Applied tracer tests provide a means to estimate aquifer parameters in fractured rock. The traditional approach to analysing these tests has been using a single fracture model to find the parameter values that generate the best fit to the measured breakthrough curve. In many cases, the ultimate aim is to predict solute transport under the natural gradient. Usually, no confidence limits are placed on parameter values and the impact of parameter errors on predictions of solute transport is not discussed. The assumption inherent in this approach is that the parameters determined under forced conditions will enable prediction of solute transport under the natural gradient. This paper considers the parameter and prediction uncertainty that might arise from analysis of breakthrough curves obtained from forced gradient applied tracer tests. By adding noise to an exact solution for transport in a single fracture in a porous matrix we create multiple realisations of an initial breakthrough curve. A least squares fitting routine is used to obtain a fit to each realisation, yielding a range of parameter values rather than a single set of absolute values. The suite of parameters is then used to make predictions of solute transport under lower hydraulic gradients and the uncertainty of estimated parameters and subsequent predictions of solute transport is compared. The results of this study show that predictions of breakthrough curve characteristics (first inflection point time, peak arrival time and peak concentration) for groundwater flow speeds with orders of magnitude smaller than that at which a test is conducted can sometimes be determined even more accurately than the fracture and matrix parameters.     

Relations between Conspecific Density and Effects of Ultraviolet‐B Radiation on Tadpole Size in the Striped Marsh Frog

Global increases in ultraviolet‐B radiation (UVBR) associated with stratospheric ozone depletion are potentially contributing to the decline of numerous amphibian species around the world. Exposure to UVBR alone reduces survival and induces a range of sublethal effects in embryonic and larval amphibians. When additional environmental stressors are present, UVBR can have compounding negative effects. Thus, examination of the effects of UVBR in the absence of other stressors may substantially underestimate its potential to affect amphibians in natural habitats. We examined the independent and interactive effects of increased UVBR and high conspecific density would have embryonic and larval striped marsh frogs (Limnodynastes peronii). We exposed individuals to a factorial combination of low and high UVBR levels and low, medium, and high densities of striped marsh frog tadpoles. The response variables were time to hatching, hatching success, posthatch survival, burst‐swimming performance of tadpoles (maximum instantaneous swim speed following an escape response), and size and morphology of tadpoles. Consistent with results of previous studies, we found that exposure to UVBR alone increased the time to hatching of embryos and reduced the burst‐swimming performance and size of tadpoles. Similarly, increasing conspecific density increased the time to hatching of embryos and reduced the size of tadpoles, but had no effect on burst‐swimming performance. The negative effect of UVBR on tadpole size was not apparent at high densities of tadpoles. This result suggests that tadpoles living at higher densities may invest relatively less energy in growth and thus have more energy to repair UVBR‐induced damage. Lower densities of conspecifics increased the negative effects of UVBR on developing amphibians. Thus, low‐density populations, which may include declining populations, may be particularly susceptible to the detrimental effects of increased UVBR and thus may be driven toward extinction faster than might be expected on the basis of results from single‐factor studies. Relaciones entre la Densidad Conespecífica y los Efectos de la Radiación Ultravioleta‐B sobre el Tamaño de Renacuajos de Limnodynastes peronei     

Microbial diversity and dynamics during methane production from municipal solid waste

The objectives of this study were to characterize development of bacterial and archaeal populations during biodegradation of municipal solid waste (MSW) and to link specific methanogens to methane generation. Experiments were conducted in three 0.61-m-diameter by 0.90-m-tall laboratory reactors to simulate MSW bioreactor landfills. Pyrosequencing of 16S rRNA genes was used to characterize microbial communities in both leachate and solid waste. Microbial assemblages in effluent leachate were similar between reactors during peak methane generation. Specific groups within the Bacteroidetes and Thermatogae phyla were present in all samples and were particularly abundant during peak methane generation. Microbial communities were not similar in leachate and solid fractions assayed at the end of reactor operation; solid waste contained a more abundant bacterial community of cellulose-degrading organisms (e.g., Firmicutes). Specific methanogen populations were assessed using quantitative polymerase chain reaction. Methanomicrobiales, Methanosarcinaceae, and Methanobacteriales were the predominant methanogens in all reactors, with Methanomicrobiales consistently the most abundant. Methanogen growth phases coincided with accelerated methane production, and cumulative methane yield increased with increasing total methanogen abundance. The difference in methanogen populations and corresponding methane yield is attributed to different initial cellulose and hemicellulose contents of the MSW. Higher initial cellulose and hemicellulose contents supported growth of larger methanogen populations that resulted in higher methane yield.     

An application of economic choice experiments to a traditional land use—deer hunting and landscape change in the Scottish Highlands

Stalking (deer hunting) is an important land use and activity in the Scottish Highlands, and deer managers have traditionally maintained large numbers of female deer in order to supply a guaranteed number of stags for stalking. Unfortunately, grazing by large numbers of deer conflicts with environmental objectives that are seeking to improve upland habitats and increase the area of native Caledonian Pine forest. This study uses a multi-attribute choice experimental approach to quantify the various characteristics of the stalking experience to determine the value that amateur stalkers attach to the stag numbers, the landscape and other attibutes. Unlike previous applications of stated preference, a large proportion (one-third) of a full factorial design is used to present stalkers with different alternative stalking packages within a postal survey. The results indicate a way forward that could be agreeable to both deer managers and conservationists.     

MANAGING CRISIS: THE EFFECTIVENESS OF LOCAL DISTRICTS FOR CONTROL OF GROUND WATER MINING1

: This article examines the willingness and capacity of local districts to control ground water mining of the Ogallala Aquifer in the High Plains. The questions of willingness and capacity were approached through extensive field interviews and a survey of all district board members and managers. The analysis focuses on the policy alternatives board members and managers perceive and how they evaluate these alternatives. Methodologically, the study utilized factor analysis of responses rating the desirability of various policy alternatives to ascertain what alternatives were perceived by the sample. Then the sample's preferences for each of the identified factors were calculated. The results demonstrate that the sample of those who must regulate if ground water mining is to be controlled at the substate level are not oriented to regulatory policies and therefore lack the willingness to deal with ground water mining.