Estimating Potential Climate Change Effects on the Upper Neuse Watershed Water Balance Using the SWAT Model

Climate change poses water resource challenges for many already water stressed watersheds throughout the world. One such watershed is the Upper Neuse Watershed in North Carolina, which serves as a water source for the large and growing Research Triangle Park region. The aim of this study was to quantify possible changes in the watershed’s water balance due to climate change. To do this, we used the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) model forced with different climate scenarios for baseline, mid‐century, and end‐century time periods using five different downscaled General Circulation Models. Before running these scenarios, the SWAT model was calibrated and validated using daily streamflow records within the watershed. The study results suggest that, even under a mitigation scenario, precipitation will increase by 7.7% from the baseline to mid‐century time period and by 9.8% between the baseline and end‐century time period. Over the same periods, evapotranspiration (ET) would decrease by 5.5 and 7.6%, water yield would increase by 25.1% and 33.2%, and soil water would increase by 1.4% and 1.9%. Perhaps most importantly, the model results show, under a high emission scenario, large seasonal differences with ET estimated to decrease by up to 42% and water yield to increase by up to 157% in late summer and fall. Planning for the wetter predicted future and corresponding seasonal changes will be critical for mitigating the impacts of climate change on water resources.     

Comparison and Evaluation of Gridded Precipitation Datasets in a Kansas Agricultural Watershed Using SWAT

Gridded precipitation datasets are becoming a convenient substitute for gauge measurements in hydrological modeling; however, these data have not been fully evaluated across a range of conditions. We compared four gridded datasets (Daily Surface Weather and Climatological Summaries [DAYMET], North American Land Data Assimilation System [NLDAS], Global Land Data Assimilation System [GLDAS], and Parameter‐elevation Regressions on Independent Slopes Model [PRISM]) as precipitation data sources and evaluated how they affected hydrologic model performance when compared with a gauged dataset, Global Historical Climatology Network‐Daily (GHCN‐D). Analyses were performed for the Delaware Watershed at Perry Lake in eastern Kansas. Precipitation indices for DAYMET and PRISM precipitation closely matched GHCN‐D, whereas NLDAS and GLDAS showed weaker correlations. We also used these precipitation data as input to the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) model that confirmed similar trends in streamflow simulation. For stations with complete data, GHCN‐D based SWAT‐simulated streamflow variability better than gridded precipitation data. During low flow periods we found PRISM performed better, whereas both DAYMET and NLDAS performed better in high flow years. Our results demonstrate that combining gridded precipitation sources with gauge‐based measurements can improve hydrologic model performance, especially for extreme events.     

Spatiotemporal Variability of Modeled Watershed Scale Surface‐Depression Storage and Runoff for the Conterminous United States

This study explores the viability of using simulated monthly runoff as a proxy for landscape‐scale surface‐depression storage processes simulated by the United States Geological Survey’s National Hydrologic Model (NHM) infrastructure across the conterminous United States (CONUS). Two different temporal resolution model codes (daily and monthly) were run in the NHM with the same spatial discretization. Simulated values of daily surface‐depression storage (treated as a decimal fraction of maximum volume) as computed by the daily Precipitation‐Runoff Modeling System (NHM‐PRMS) and normalized runoff (0 to 1) as computed by the Monthly Water Balance Model (NHM‐MWBM) were aggregated to monthly and annual values for each hydrologic response unit (HRU) in the CONUS geospatial fabric (HRU; n = 109,951) and analyzed using Spearman’s rank correlation test. Correlations between simulated runoff and surface‐depression storage aggregated to monthly and annual values were compared to identify where which time scale had relatively higher correlation values across the CONUS. Results show Spearman’s rank values >0.75 (highly correlated) for the monthly time scale in 28,279 HRUs (53.35%) compared to the annual time scale in 41,655 HRUs (78.58%). The geographic distribution of HRUs with highly correlated monthly values show areas where surface‐depression storage features are known to be common (e.g., Prairie Pothole Region, Florida).     

Backwater Confluences of the Ohio River: Organic and Inorganic Fingerprints Explain Sediment Dynamics in Wetlands and Marinas

In the Ohio River (OR), backwater confluence sedimentation dynamics are understudied, however, these river features are expected to be influential on the system’s ecological and economic function when integrated along the river’s length. In the following paper, we test the efficacy of organic and inorganic tracers for sediment fingerprinting in backwater confluences; we use fingerprinting results to evidence sediment dynamics controlling deposition patterns in confluences used for wetland and marina functions; and we quantify the spatial extent of tributary drainages with wetland and marina features in OR confluences. Both organic and inorganic tracers statistically differentiate sediment from stream and river end‐members. Carbon and nitrogen stable isotopes produce greater uncertainty in fingerprinting results than inorganic elemental tracers. Uncertainty analysis of the nonconservative tracer term in the organic matter fingerprinting application estimates an apparent enrichment of the carbon stable isotopes during instream residence, and the nonconservativeness is quantified with a statistical approach unique to the fingerprinting literature. Wetland and marina features in OR confluences impact 42% and 11% of tributary drainage areas, respectively. Sediment dynamics show wetland and marina confluences experience deposition from river backwaters with longitudinally linear and nonlinear patterns, respectively, from sediment sources.     

Pollution,place, and premature death: evidence from a mid-sized city

ABSTRACT

Neighborhood life expectancy varies by as much as 10 years across the City of Louisville. In 2013, the Greater Louisville Project funded by local government, businesses, and foundations, argued these differences had little to do with environmental factors. The Greater Louisville Project (2013) study argued that these neighborhood differences could be attributed 40% to socio-economic factors (with a major emphasis on education), 10% to physical environment, 30% to health behaviors, and 20% to access to medical care. To test these claims, we construct our own model of neighborhood variation in years of potential life lost (YPLL) by adding two variables testing environmental degradation. We operationalise two separate measures of environmental contamination: proximity to EPA designated brownfield sites and proximity to chemical factories in an industrial park in the neighborhood known as “Rubbertown”. We conduct several regression analyses, which show a relationship between proximity to environmental contaminants and an increase in neighborhood YPLL. Our beta weights challenge the claims made by the Greater Louisville Project, which minimize the impact nearness to environmental contaminants has on reductions in life expectancy in Louisville neighborhoods.     

Environmental pollution,hydropower and nuclear energy generation before and after catastrophe: Bathtub-Weibull curve and MS-VECM methods

In this paper, the life span of hydro and nuclear energy generations and the relationship between hydro and nuclear energy generations, environmental pollution, and economic growth were investigated for Japan covering the period of 1960–2018 by employing the Bathtub-Weibull curve and Markov switching-vector error correcting (MSVEC) method, respectively. According to the Bathtub-Weibull curve analysis, a rising failure rate for nuclear energy was found, indicating that the life of nuclear energy has expired, but a decreasing failure rate for hydroelectric energy has been detected. Then two different MSVEC models were used. The MSVEC method, unlike traditional approaches, determines the relationship between variables under different regimes. The results of MSVEC methods indicate three important points. First, regime-dependent asymmetry and regime changes are crucial for policy recommendations. Second, the shocks to hydropower and nuclear energy generations cause temporary deviations from the long-run growth path in both regimes. Lastly, the increase in hydropower generation leads to a decrease in environmental pollution and an increase in GDP, and an increase in nuclear power generation increases pollution and growth in both regimes.     

Relevance of radiation compensation litigation to compensation for toxic exposures

Several recent court decisions add to the growing body of law concerning the responsibility of Government in radiation matters and the quantum of proof needed to show causation between radiation exposures and certain types of cancer and leukemia. The courts have also been addressing a wide range of compensation claims for exposures to toxic chemicals with demonstration of causation being a particularly difficult task. Meanwhile, the Congress has been attempting to legislate a far reaching administrative and judicial framework for compensating toxic victims, including an easing of burden-of-proof requirements for demonstrating causation and a broadening of the basis for admissibility of scientific evidence. Drawing parallels between radiation and toxic exposure problems can be both instructive and misleading. Some of the technical issues are quite similar, including the importance of person-specific exposure estimates and of epidemiological studies. However, the uncertainties associated with toxic exposures are usually far greater, and the scientific data base for relating exposures and effects is much more uncertain.     

Organic interference of solidified/stabilized hazardous wastes

Liquid hazardous waste disposal in landfills is usually allowed only after solidification/stabilization. Although various procedures are commonly practiced, little is known about the mechanism(s) of the processes. A particular problem is the interference of organics. Small amounts of organics can interfere with the reaction between inorganic sludges and cementitous matrices. The present communication reports studies of the interaction between selected organic hazardous wastes and Type I Portland cement. Microscopic studies of the structural differences between cements set with water and those set with water plus organic liquids are discussed. In these studies the scanning electron microscope is used to observe samples fractured at 78K. The results provide technical background data on the ultimate stability of critical waste constituents solidified by various binding agents.     

On the search for mimetic patterns in environmental disclosure: an international perspective

In this paper, we assert and test the proposition that environmental disclosure (ED) is structured by institutionalised myths and that is why ED is decoupled from environmental performance and media pressures. Focusing on firms from Canada, France and Germany, findings show that ED mimetic isomorphism for different topics varies among countries and by industry sensitiveness to the environment. The results corroborate the institutional presumption that institutionalised myths vary among different contexts. Our findings also suggest that institutionalised ED structures may not reflect environmental performance, mimetic patterns being affected by environmental performance. However, the decoupling between ED mimetic isomorphism and environmental performance decrease when firms’ ED credibility is questioned by the media.