Meeting emission targets under uncertainty—the case of Finnish non-emission-trading sector

The European Union (EU) has set a target to reduce its greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions at least 10 % below the 2005 levels by 2020 in the non-Emission Trading Sector (non-ETS). As part of this, each Member State has a binding national emission limitation target for the non-ETS sector. Finland’s target, examined as a case study in this paper, is to reduce emissions at least 16 % below 2005 levels by 2020. The objective of this study is to find cost optimal mitigation portfolios that meet Finland’s reduction target and to analyze the risks of not attaining the emission target or exceeding the assumed costs. The question was addressed with a stochastic optimization model, Stochastic Optimization of non-ETS Emissions (SONETS) selecting separate mitigation measures that meet the target on expectation. The results show that optimal portfolios include relatively high uncertainty both in costs and achieved reductions. The prices of crude oil and diesel, and the abatement cost of reducing hydrofluorocarbon (HFC) emissions seem to account for the majority of uncertainty regarding total costs. The baseline predictions for various non-ETS subsectors (such as transport and agriculture) were found to have the greatest contribution to the uncertainty of attaining emission target. The results also show that some abatement actions are chosen in nearly all efficient portfolios, while other actions are seldom chosen. For example replacing oil burners in the end of technical life time or recovery of methane (CH₄) from waste are often chosen whereas ban of landfilling of organic waste is chosen extremely seldom. It also seems that the results are somewhat sensitive to the inclusion or exclusion of the interdependencies of mitigation measures.     

Presence of Torque Teno Virus (TTV) in Tap Water in Public Schools from Southern Brazil

Torque teno virus (TTV) was surveyed in tap water collected in schools from three municipalities located in the south of Brazil. TTV genomes were found in 11.7 % (4/34) of the samples. TTV DNA was detected in 10.5 % (2/19) of the samples collected at the city of Caxias do Sul and in 25 % (2/8) of the samples from Pelotas. Those cities have a low rate of sewage treatment. All samples from Santa Cruz do Sul, which has nearly 92 % of its sewage treated, were negative. These results suggest that the amount of sewage treated may have an effect on the detection rates of TTV DNA in drinking water in a given urban area, showing a mild negative correlation (r = ?0.76), when comparing the percentage of sewage treatment to the detection of TTV genomes. The detection rate of TTV was also compared with Escherichia coli, showing a strong correlation (r = 0.97), indicating that TTV may be a suitable marker of fecal contamination.     

Triterpene saponin hemi-biosynthesis of a leaf beetle’s (<Emphasis Type="Italic">Platyphora kollari</Emphasis>) defensive secretion

The adults of the leaf beetle Platyphora kollari (Chrysomelidae) are able to metabolise the oleanane triterpene β-amyrin (1) into the glycoside 3-O-β-d-glucopyranosyl-(1→4)-β-d-glucuronopyranosyl-hederagenin (2) that is stored in their defensive glands. The aim of this study was to test the hypothesis that oleanolic acid (3) is an intermediate in the conversion of 1 into 2 and to check whether the sequestration of pentacyclic triterpenes is selective in favour of β-amyrin (1). To this end, adults of P. kollari were fed with Ipomoea batatas leaf disks painted with a solution of [2,2,3-²H₃]oleanolic acid or [2,2,3-²H₃]α-amyrin and the secretion of their defensive glands analysed by HPLC–ESIMS. The data presented in this work indicated that the first step of the transformation of β-amyrin (1) into the sequestered glycoside 2 is its oxidation into oleanolic acid (3) and that this conversion is selective but not specific in favour of β-amyrin (1).     

Time allocation between work and recreation and the associated injury risks among young people

PROBLEM: The purpose of this study was to examine the relationship between overall risk of injury and time use patterns between work and active recreation among adolescents and young adults. METHODS: Using a representative sample of 9,795 Canadians aged 15-24 years, a multivariate logistic regression on the likelihood of any medically attended injury was conducted, including sociodemographic, individual, and time factors. RESULTS: Young people who engaged in a combination of high work and high activity hours were twice as likely to sustain a medically attended injury compared to those who worked low hours, but did not participate in any recreational activity. Those respondents who were not in school had a 43% increase in injury risk compared to full-time students. SUMMARY: Our findings suggest that injury risk was not a simple function of fatigue and cumulative exposure time. Our findings suggest the importance of considering time use and the associated injury risk tradeoffs. IMPACT ON INDUSTRY: Relevant to state and federal work safety policy makers, our findings suggest the importance of understanding where youth might otherwise spend their time if constraint were placed on their employment opportunities, and the associated injury risk tradeoffs must be taken into consideration.     

Male satin bowerbirds (<Emphasis Type="Italic">Ptilonorhynchus violaceus</Emphasis>) compensate for sexual signal loss by enhancing multiple display features

Numerous studies have focussed on the relationship between female choice and the multiple exaggerated sexual traits of males. However, little is known about the ability of males to actively enhance specific components of their display in response to the loss of one component. We investigated the capacity of male satin bowerbirds (Ptilonorhynchus violaceus) to respond to the loss of one of their sexual signals by performing an experiment in which we removed decorations at their bowers. We found that males compensated for decoration loss by increasing bower construction behaviour and decreasing their latency to bower painting. These results are novel because they suggest that males can assess the quality of their own display and make decisions about how to augment their displays. We discuss these results in the context of previous studies of mate choice in satin bowerbirds, as both of the supplementary behaviours we observed are known correlates of male mating success.     

Improving graduated driver licensing systems: a conceptual approach and its implications

Graduated driver licensing (GDL) is a concept for how to transform non-drivers into reasonably safe drivers while minimizing the risks as they learn. Several state GDL programs can be improved by moving their structures closer to an adequate implementation of that concept. The learner stage of a GDL system needs to be long enough for beginners to obtain a thorough introduction to the vagaries of driving. The second or intermediate stage needs to effectively limit exposure to known high risk conditions as novices adapt to being fully in charge of the vehicle. The benefits of GDL to date are due almost entirely to the risk-reducing conditions it implements. To improve the functioning of GDL will probably require a better understanding of teen driving than we presently have. The likelihood of further gains will be enhanced by efforts to learn more about the actual causes of teen crashes, the nature and type of teen driver exposures, and what parents do with their teens during the supervised driving stage of GDL. Without a better understanding of these, and other, phenomena it will be difficult to further reduce crashes among young beginning drivers, whether through GDL enhancements or with other approaches.     

Impact on sward composition and stock performance of grazing Molinia-dominant grassland

A comparative experiment was conducted to test the extent to which grazing of rank Molinia caerulea-dominated grassland increases botanical diversity and improves animal performance. The study was carried out on an area of under-grazed Molinia-dominant pasture that had not been stocked for 20 years. Three treatments were compared from 2001 until 2008: (1) no grazing, (2) grazing by Welsh Mountain sheep and (3) grazing by Welsh Black heifers. Patterns of change in sward surface composition across the grazing season were consistent with greater consumption of Molinia by the cattle, but there was little evidence of management regime influencing changes in sward composition year-on-year. There was a significant effect of year on animal performance (P < 0.001). Although the growth rates of the heifers improved over the course of the first three years of the experiment, this performance was not sustained. In contrast, any weight changes for the sheep were positive. The results highlight the slow pace of change within upland swards, and the need to develop site-specific grazing guidelines.     

Application of winery and distillery waste composts to a Jumilla (SE Spain) vineyard: Effects on the characteristics of a calcareous sandy-loam soil

The effects on different physico-chemical, chemical and biological soil properties of the incorporation of different organic materials into a calcareous vineyard soil were studied in an experiment during three growing seasons. The organic materials used were sheep manure and four composts derived from the treatment of winery and distillery wastes. A multivariate technique, factor analysis (FA), was also used for interpreting the data obtained from the samplings carried out throughout the three vine growing seasons. The application of the organic materials induced an increase in the activity of the soil microorganisms and in the soil macro and micronutrient contents, as well as a slow release of inorganic N. Through FA of the soil properties studied, three factors that explained 74.7% of the variability were established and the effects of the treatments after the whole experimental period were assessed.     

Impact analysis of drought, water excess and salinity on grass production in The Netherlands using historical and future climate data

The coupled SWAP-WOFOST model was used to study the effects of increasing salinity of groundwater, drought and water excess on grass production in The Netherlands. WOFOST simulates crop growth and SWAP simulates transport of water, solutes and heat in the vadose zone. The model was tested using several datasets from field experiments. We applied the models at regional scale where we quantified the impact of various groundwater salinity levels on grass growth and production using historical weather data (1971-2000). The salt concentrations in the subsoil were derived from the National Hydrological Instrument. The results show that salinity effects on grass production are limited. In wet years the excess rainfall will infiltrate the soil and reduce salt water seepage. In a next step we used future weather data for the year 2050, derived from 3 Global Circulation Models. From each model we used data from two CO₂ emission scenarios. As expected higher temperatures increased drought stress, however, the production reduction as a result of salt water in the root zone is limited. Salt stress mainly occurred when irrigation was applied with saline water. The increased CO₂ concentration in combination with the limited drought stress resulted in increasing simulated actual and potential yields. Overall conclusion for grassland in The Netherlands: drought stress is stronger than stress caused by water excess which on its turn is stronger than salinity stress. Future water demand for irrigation may increase by 11-19% and result in water scarcity if water supply is insufficient.