Scenario Analysis for the San Pedro River, Analyzing Hydrological Consequences of a Future Environment

Studies of future management and policy options based on different assumptions provide a mechanism to examine possible outcomes and especially their likely benefits and consequences. The San Pedro River in Arizona and Sonora, Mexico is an area that has undergone rapid changes in land use and cover, and subsequently is facing keen environmental crises related to water resources. It is the location of a number of studies that have dealt with change analysis, watershed condition, and most recently, alternative futures analysis. The previous work has dealt primarily with resources of habitat, visual quality, and groundwater related to urban development patterns and preferences. In the present study, previously defined future scenarios, in the form of land-use/land-cover grids, were examined relative to their impact on surface-water conditions (e.g., surface runoff and sediment yield). These hydrological outputs were estimated for the baseline year of 2000 and predicted twenty years in the future as a demonstration of how new geographic information system-based hydrologic modeling tools can be used to evaluate the spatial impacts of urban growth patterns on surface-water hydrology.     

Plant Phenology in Western Canada: Trends and Links to the View From Space

One feature of climate change is the trends to earlier spring onset in many north temperate areas of the world. The timing of spring flowering and leafing of perennial plants is largely controlled by temperature accumulation; both temperature and phenological records illustrate changes in recent decades. Phenology studies date back over a century, with extensive databases existing for western Canada. Earlier spring flowering has been noted for many woody plants, with larger trends seen for species that develop at spring's start. Implications for ecosystems of trends to earlier spring arrival include changes in plant species composition, changes in timing and distribution of pests and disease, and potentially disrupted ecological interactions. While Alberta has extensive phenology databases (for species, years, and geographic coverage) for recent decades, these data cannot provide continuous ground coverage. There is great potential for phenological data to provide ground validation for satellite imagery interpretation, especially as new remote sensors are becoming available. Phenological networks are experiencing a resurgence of interest in Canada (www.plantwatch.ca) and globally, and linking these ground-based observations with the view from space will greatly enhance our capacity to track the biotic response to climate changes.     

Mercury and trace elements in cloud water and precipitation collected on Mt. Mansfield,Vermont

The lack of high quality measurements of Hg and trace elements in cloud and fog water led to the design of a new collector for clean sequential sampling of cloud and fog water. Cloud water was collected during nine non-precipitating cloud events on Mt. Mansfield, VT in the northeastern USA between August 1 and October 31, 1998. Sequential samples were collected during six of these events. Mercury cloud water concentrations ranged from 7.5 to 71.8 ng l(-1), with a mean of 24.8 ng l(-1). Liquid water content explained about 60% of the variability in Hg cloud concentrations. Highest Hg cloud water concentrations were found to be associated with transport from the Mid-Atlantic and Ohio River Valley, and lowest concentrations with transport from the north of Mt. Mansfield out of Canada. Twenty-nine event precipitation samples were collected during the ten-week cloud sampling period near the base of Mt. Mansfield as part of a long-term deposition study. The Hg concentrations of cloud water were similar to, but higher on average (median of 12.5 ng l(-1)) than Hg precipitation concentrations (median of 10.5 ng l(-1)). Cloud and precipitation samples were analyzed for fifteen trace elements including Mg, Cu, Zn, As, Cd and Pb by ICP-MS. Mean concentrations were higher in cloud water than precipitation for elements with predominately anthropogenic, but not crustal origin in samples from the same source region. One possible explanation is greater in-cloud scavenging of crustal elements in precipitating than non-precipitating clouds, and greater below-cloud scavenging of crustal than anthropogenic aerosols.     

Laboratory-polluted soils: a methodological approach to establish equilibrium conditions for different metal chemical forms in soils

An approach based on the number of extractions performed over time was applied to study the time necessary to attain equilibrium conditions between the different chemical forms present in two natural soils laboratory-loaded with heavy metals (Cu(II), Pb(II), Zn(II)). The influence of some soil parameters, such as pH value, cation exchange capacity and organic matter content, on the equilibrium time was evidenced both by the different nature of the soils and by the treatment of soils with paper mill sludge. Equilibrium conditions were determined by studying the metal partitioning in the soil on a case by case basis. The behaviour of the three metals was not the same, and the conditions of equilibrium among the different chemical forms were the result of the amount of heavy metals added as well as of the nature of the soil.     

Working backwards to move forwards: Graph-based connectivity metrics for reserve network selection

In this paper we apply graph theory in a reserve selection exercise to explore the tradeoffs between maintaining connectivity and minimizing the total area of a protected area network. Rather than focus on a single organism, we used a multi-species approach and looked at the tradeoff curves for organisms with varying dispersal abilities. We first generated the tradeoff curves using a graph-based metric to determine the importance of individual patches for maintaining connectivity. We then performed an analogous set of analyses using patch size as a surrogate measure of importance.     

Dissolved and Total Copper in a Coal Ash Effluent and Receiving Stream: Assessment of In Situ Biological Effects

An in situ chemical and biological study was conducted in the lower Muskingum River (southeast Ohio, U.S.A.) to evaluate potential effects of copper (Cu) discharged from a coal ash effluent. Effluent total Cu, dissolved Cu, TSS and pH measurements were performed monthly during January-December 1995. Benthic macroinvertebrates were sampled at five river locations using artificial substrate samplers, and in situ Cu analyses were conducted. Effluent Cu (total) ranged from 8 to 142 microg L(-1) (mean = 58 microg L(-1)), but dissolved Cu never exceeded 78 microg L(-1) (mean = 20 microg L(-1)). The mean ratio of dissolved Cu to total Cu in these samples was 32%. Total Cu concentrations at the biological sampling sites adjacent to the effluent discharge were higher than levels at ambient sites, but dissolved Cu levels were similar among all sites. The macroinvertebrate community proximal to the coal ash effluent had the highest number of taxa and total number of individuals; a high number of mayfly and caddis fly taxa; and the highest Invertebrate Community Index score. The high water velocity of the discharge (which likely contained particulate organic matter) apparently created a favorable microhabitat that, combined with Cu-complexing constituents in the discharge, superceded potential adverse effects of high Cu levels. This study emphasizes the importance of instream biological data when obtained in conjunction with chemical analyses.     

Microbiological characteristics in a zero-valent iron reactive barrier

Zero-valent iron (Fe⁰)-based permeable reactive barriertreatment has been generating great interest for passivegroundwater remediation, yet few studies have paid particularattention to the microbial activity and characteristics withinand in the vicinity of the Fe⁰-barrier matrix. The presentstudy was undertaken to evaluate the microbial population andcommunity composition in the reducing zone of influence byFe⁰ corrosion in the barrier at the Oak Ridge Y-12 Plantsite. Both phospholipid fatty acids and DNA analyses were usedto determine the total microbial population and microbialfunctional groups, including sulfate-reducing bacteria,denitrifying bacteria, and methanogens, in groundwater andsoil/iron core samples. A diverse microbial community wasidentified in the strongly reducing Fe⁰ environment despitea relatively high pH condition within the Fe⁰ barrier (up topH 10). In comparison with those found in the backgroundsoil/groundwater samples, the enhanced microbial populationranged from 1 to 3 orders of magnitude and appeared to increase from upgradient of the barrier to downgradient soil. Inaddition, microbial community composition appeared to change overtime, and the bacterial types of microorganismsincreased consistently as the barrier aged. DNA analysisindicated the presence of sulfate-reducing and denitrifyingbacteria in the barrier and its surrounding soil. However, theactivity of methanogens was found to be relatively low,presumably as a result of the competition by sulfate/metal-reducing bacteria and denitrifying bacteria because of the unlimited availability of sulfate and nitrate in the site groundwater. Results of this study provide evidenceof a diverse microbial population within and in the vicinity ofthe iron barrier, although the important roles of microbial activity, either beneficially or detrimentally, on the longevityand enduring efficiency of the Fe⁰ barriers are yet to be evaluated.     

Applying mathematical programming to reserve selection

During the last 10–15 years heuristic methods have been developed for problems in optimal reserve selection. Unfortunately, there is no guarantee that heuristics will find optimal solutions. In recognizing this limitation, analysts have formulated reserve selection problems as set covering problems, for which matrix reduction and integer (0/1) programming can be used to find optimal solutions. In this paper we restate the set covering formulation and review solution techniques. A new 0/1 programming model, which is a generalization of the set covering model, is then presented and applied to a hypothetical reserve selection problem. Objectives of minimizing the number of sites selected and maximizing the number of species represented are addressed. Solutions which characterize the tradeoffs between these objectives provide a rich set of information for planners and decision makers. Applications of mathematical programming to related problems in land use planning and forestry are also discussed.     

Optimal and suboptimal control of anaerobic digesters

Anaerobic digester failure due to entry of inhibitors or sudden changes in the feed substrate concentration may be encompassed beneficially by applying optimal control theory. An almost proportional relationship between the dilution rate and the methane production rate leads to a simple suboptimal control law with only minor loss in performance, after the occurrence of the above mentioned events.     

Integrated assessment of potential health impact of global environmental change: Prospects and limitations

Estimating the future health impact of global environmental change requires scientific methods that extend beyond conventional health risk assessment in relation to existing exposures. The dynamic and non‐linear nature of these changes in large complex biophysical systems, the interactions between them, and the reference to future scenarios all contribute uncertainty. Potential health impacts can be estimated from historical analogues, by mathematical modelling, or by reasonable foresight (especially in relation to social and economic disruptions). Integrated assessment methods draw upon all these techniques. In particular, integrated mathematical modelling techniques are evolving, as scientists (and policy‐makers) come to terms with this complex scenario‐based impact assessment task.