Assessing vulnerabilities to the effects of global change: an eight step approach

In the recent years, global environmental change research has seen increased attention to the concept of vulnerability. There have been a growing number of vulnerability assessments, but relatively little discussion on appropriate and common methods. Here we propose a method to guide vulnerability assessments of coupled human–environment systems toward a common objective: informing the decision-making of specific stakeholders about options for adapting to the effects of global change. We suggest five criteria vulnerability assessments must at least possess to achieve this objective. They should have a knowledge base from various disciplines and stakeholder participation, be place based, consider multiple interacting stresses, examine differential adaptive capacity, and be prospective as well as historical. On the basis of these criteria, we present a general methodological guideline of eight steps. To examine whether these eight steps, if attentively coordinated, do in fact achieve the criteria, and in turn satisfy the objective of the assessment, we discuss two case studies. We expect most readers to identify some of the steps as part of their well-established disciplinary practices. However, they should also identify one or more steps as uncommon to their research traditions. Thus taken together the eight steps constitute a novel methodological framework. We hypothesize that if researchers employ this framework, then the products of the research will (1) achieve the objective of preparing stakeholders for the effects of global change on a site-specific basis, and (2) further the “public good” of additional insights through cross-study comparisons of research projects designed according to common principles.     

Uptake of nitroaromatic compounds in plants

The uptake of nitroaromatic compounds by plants from the soil was studied at an ammunition site. After the development of analytical methods for 2,4,6-trinitrotoluene, aminodinitrotoluenes and dinitrotoluenes in plant material, we could show that these substances accumulated in the roots of plants and are found to a lesser extent inleaves and stems. We observed only moderate differences between various plant species. It is likely that a metabolic transformation in plants leads to the formation of dinitrotoluenes which are considered to be potent carcinogens. Results from soils with a wide range of explosive concentrations show a good correlation between the plant and soil concentrations. The relative accumulation in plant material is higher at lower soil concentrations. At low soil concentrations of about 1 mg trinitrotoluene/kg soil, an accumulation factor of about 0.5 can be derived. These data are an important input for the risk assessment of ammunition sites.     

A stakeholder dialogue on European vulnerability

A stakeholder dialogue was embedded in the ATEAM project to facilitate the development and dissemination of its European-wide vulnerability assessment of global change impacts. Participating stakeholders were primarily ecosystem managers and policy advisers interested in potential impacts on ‘Agriculture’, ‘Forestry’, ‘Water’, ‘Carbon storage’, ‘Biodiversity’ and ‘Mountain environments’ sectors. First, stakeholder dialogue approaches to integrated assessment are introduced. Methodological considerations on stakeholder selection and dialogue implementation and evaluation follow. The dialogue content and process are evaluated from the perspectives of stakeholders and scientists. Its usefulness in the research process and the relevance of outcomes for stakeholders are particularly considered. The challenging compromises required to perform innovative research, which seeks to achieve both peer scientific credibility and societal relevance, are emphasized. Effective stakeholder dialogues play a substantial role in raising the visibility and meaningfulness of vulnerability assessments as critical means to improve awareness on global change and its potential worrying impacts on society. They further provide scientists with critical information on ecosystem management and sectoral adaptive capacity. These processes of mutual learning and knowledge exchange moreover foster a better understanding of the potential and limits of global change modelling and vulnerability assessment for policy and ecosystem management.

Kinship recognition and grouping in hatchling green iguanas

Summary The research addressed two questions: (1) doIguana iguana hatchlings recognize their kin, and (2) what are the recognition mechanisms? Eggs were collected from wild and captive-raised females and hatched in semi-natural incubators. In the first experiment we used eggs from two females. One of the clutches was subdivided to be placed in different incubators. Immediately after emergence one of these hatchling groups was introduced into a 10 m x 10 m enclosure. At the same time we introduced hatchlings from another female. The remaining hatchling group was kept separate for 3 weeks and was then introduced into the same cage. Unrelated hatchlings separated from each other. Related but separated hatchlings grouped according to introduction date. In the second experiment we maintained eight kin groups in individual cages and two hatchlings per kin group in an additonal cage. Hatchlings from the mixed group showed no preference for their kin before physical contact with pure kin groups had occurred. After physical contact hatchling recognized their kin by feces smell. Body odor is likely to be also involved.     

UN/ECE ICP Materials Dose-response Functions for the Multi-pollutant Situation

A “multi-pollutant exposure programme” reflecting the new pollution situation where SO₂ is no longer the dominating pollutant has been performed by the International Co-operative Programme on Effects on Materials, including Historic and Cultural Monuments (ICP Materials) within the activities of the Convention on Long-range Transboundary Air Pollution. The main results obtained in the period 1997–2003 are summarised. Dose-response functions are presented for carbon steel, zinc, copper, bronze and limestone. Parameters involved in the functions include besides SO₂ and pH, which were included in the previously developed functions from ICP Materials, also the effect of particulate matter and HNO₃.     

Assessment of solid waste generation and greenhouse gas emission potential in Yangon city,Myanmar

Due to booming economy, growing population and rapid urbanization, solid waste generation in the cities of developing countries has significantly increased. Yangon is the largest and most densely populated city, with over five million residents in Myanmar. Open dumping is the major waste disposal method and recycling sector remains at an early development stage. With increasing waste generation, current waste management activities in Yangon have significant environmental impacts. Therefore, the study developed two linear models to predict annual solid waste generation, regarding per capita waste generation, population growth scenarios, literacy rates and gross domestic products. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change and Institute for Global Environmental Strategies calculation methods were used for greenhouse gas (GHG) emission prediction from recycling, waste transportation and final disposal sites (FDSs). As a result, the total annual waste generation and GHG emission in 2015 may double over the next decade. Two major FDSs, Htawe Chaung and Hteinpin, may contribute waste disposal of 272–797 kilotons per year and emit 177–518 Gg of CO₂-eq per year by 2025. The assessment of annual solid waste generation and GHG emission potential may offer advantages in assisting development of waste management plans in Yangon.