Estimating Potential Climate Change Effects on the Upper Neuse Watershed Water Balance Using the SWAT Model

Climate change poses water resource challenges for many already water stressed watersheds throughout the world. One such watershed is the Upper Neuse Watershed in North Carolina, which serves as a water source for the large and growing Research Triangle Park region. The aim of this study was to quantify possible changes in the watershed’s water balance due to climate change. To do this, we used the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) model forced with different climate scenarios for baseline, mid‐century, and end‐century time periods using five different downscaled General Circulation Models. Before running these scenarios, the SWAT model was calibrated and validated using daily streamflow records within the watershed. The study results suggest that, even under a mitigation scenario, precipitation will increase by 7.7% from the baseline to mid‐century time period and by 9.8% between the baseline and end‐century time period. Over the same periods, evapotranspiration (ET) would decrease by 5.5 and 7.6%, water yield would increase by 25.1% and 33.2%, and soil water would increase by 1.4% and 1.9%. Perhaps most importantly, the model results show, under a high emission scenario, large seasonal differences with ET estimated to decrease by up to 42% and water yield to increase by up to 157% in late summer and fall. Planning for the wetter predicted future and corresponding seasonal changes will be critical for mitigating the impacts of climate change on water resources.     

Circumpolar status of Arctic ptarmigan: Population dynamics and trends

Rock ptarmigan (Lagopus muta) and willow ptarmigan (L. lagopus) are Arctic birds with a circumpolar distribution but there is limited knowledge about their status and trends across their circumpolar distribution. Here, we compiled information from 90 ptarmigan study sites from 7 Arctic countries, where almost half of the sites are still monitored. Rock ptarmigan showed an overall negative trend on Iceland and Greenland, while Svalbard and Newfoundland had positive trends, and no significant trends in Alaska. For willow ptarmigan, there was a negative trend in mid-Sweden and eastern Russia, while northern Fennoscandia, North America and Newfoundland had no significant trends. Both species displayed some periods with population cycles (short 3–6 years and long 9–12 years), but cyclicity changed through time for both species. We propose that simple, cost-efficient systematic surveys that capture the main feature of ptarmigan population dynamics can form the basis for citizen science efforts in order to fill knowledge gaps for the many regions that lack systematic ptarmigan monitoring programs.

     

The effects of tourism and globalization over environmental degradation in developed countries

Environmental Science and Pollution Research - This paper focuses on long-term evidence on economic growth, international tourism, globalization, energy consumption and carbon dioxide (CO2)...     

Hurricane Harvey and Greater Houston households: comparing pre-event preparedness with post-event health effects,event exposures,and recovery

Most disaster studies rely on convenience sampling and ‘after-only’ designs to assess impacts. This paper, focusing on Hurricane Harvey (2017) and leveraging a pre-/post-event sample of Greater Houston households (n=71) in the United States, establishes baselines for disaster preparedness and home structure flood hazard mitigation, explores household-level ramifications, and examines how preparedness and mitigation relate to health effects, event exposures, and recovery. Between 70 and 80 per cent of participants instituted preparedness measures. Mitigation actions varied: six per cent had interior drainage systems and 83 per cent had elevated indoor heating/cooling components. Sixty per cent reported home damage. One-half highlighted allergies and two-thirds indicated some level of post-traumatic stress (PTS). Three-quarters worried about family members/friends. The results of generalised linear models revealed that greater pre- event mitigation was associated with fewer physical health problems and adverse experiences, lower PTS, and faster recovery. The study design exposed the broad benefits of home structure flood hazard mitigation for households after Harvey.     

Fine-resolution mapping of wildfire fuel types for Canada: Fuzzy logic modeling for an Alberta pilot area

The Canadian Forest Fire Danger Rating System (CFFDRS) is used daily across Canada for evaluating forest fire danger. Fuel-type information is one of the inputs required by the models used in the CFFDRS. In this project, three fuel-type maps with a 25 m resolution were produced for a pilot study area located in Alberta using land cover only; land cover and biomass; and, land cover, biomass and leaf area index data derived from satellite imagery. The relationships between inputs and fuel types were determined mainly by the opinions of forest fire scientists and incorporated into a computer program using fuzzy set methodology. Not all the CFFDRS fuel types could be distinguished using these inputs; three of the coniferous types had to be grouped into one common fuel type. Overall accuracy was between 74 and 83% based on ground-truth comparisons. The most accurate map resulted from land cover and biomass data. Detailed accuracy assessment indicated that the overall accuracy increased up to 86% if ambiguous fuel type identification was considered. No combination of inputs was able to define a fuel type with absolute certainty, which is a reflection of differing expert opinions and the small number of inputs used to produce the maps.     

A Simulation Study to Assess the Sensitivity of a Forest Health Monitoring Network to Outbreaks of Defoliating Insects

The sensitivity of the United States Forest Health Monitoring network to outbreaks of defoliating insects was examined by means of a simulation study. A model constructed specifically for the study was used to generate a wide variety of defoliation patterns in forested landscapes. Forest configuration was that of Minnesota, USA, as expressed by the GAP land cover classification. Combinations of model parameters were based on a Latin Hypercube sample. The relationship between the average number of plots defoliated and outbreak characteristics was then examined via multiple regression. Both theoretical and model results pointed to a strong, linear relationship between the average number of plots defoliated and outbreak size. Model results provided additional insight, suggesting a significant relationship between the average number of plots defoliated and other outbreak characteristics after outbreak size was taken into account.     

Ecosystem Responses to Extreme Natural Events: Impacts of Three Sequential Hurricanes in Fall 1999 on Sediment Quality and Condition of Benthic Fauna in the Neuse River Estuary, North Carolina

A study was conducted in November 1999 to assess sediment quality and condition of benthic fauna in the Neuse River Estuary (NRE), North Carolina, USA, following the passage of three Atlantic hurricanes during the two months prior. Samples for analysis of macroinfauna (>0.5 mm sieve size), chemical contamination of sediments, and other abiotic environmental variables (salinity, dissolved oxygen, pH, depth, sediment granulometry) were collected at 20 sites from the mouth of the Neuse River at Pamlico Sound to approximately 90 km upstream. Results were compared to those obtained from the same area in July 1998 using similar protocols. Depressed salinity, caused by extreme rainfall and associated high freshwater flow, persisted throughout much of the estuary, which had experienced periods of water-column stratification and hypoxia of underlying waters. Fifteen of the 20 sites, representing 299 km² (76% of the survey area), also showed signs of benthic stress based on a multi-metric benthic index of biotic integrity (B-IBI). Benthic impacts included reductions in the abundance, diversity, and numbers of species and shifts in taxonomic composition, with a notable increase in dominance of the opportunistic polychaete Mediomastus ambiseta as other former dominant species declined. There was no significant increase in the extent of chemical contamination compared to pre-hurricane conditions. Storm-related reductions in dissoved oxygen and salinity were the more likely causes of the observed benthic impacts, though it was not possible, based on these results, to separate storm effects from seasonal changes in the benthos and annual episodes of summer anoxia and hypoxia.     

A Screening Test for the Determination of Ethylene Sensitivity

Ethephon, which releases ethylene within plant tissues after application, was chosen to perform assessments of the relative sensitivity of crops to ethylene and to determine which stages of plant development were most sensitive. The species chosen were: barley, wheat, oats, canola and field pea, all of which are important crops in the province of Alberta, Canada. Plants were treated with ethephon at one of 7 different stages. Plants were assessed for their vegetative and reproductive growth, including height, biomass, yield and seed quality. Visual symptoms were photographed and documented to compare them with symptoms caused by ethylene applied as a gas. It was concluded that in barley, wheat and canola the late vegetative and early reproductive stages were most sensitive, at least when sensitivity was defined as reductions in yield and quality. As for field pea, ethephon had no effect on yield but did cause increased numbers of pods, which in certain conditions could lead to increased yields. Significant effects on vegetative growth were only observed in the early vegetative stages of development but with no effects on yield. The screening protocol successfully identified sensitive cultivars and growth stages for further investigation of the effects of ethylene exposure.     

Supervisor expediency to employee expediency: The moderating role of leader–member exchange and the mediating role of employee unethical tolerance

We utilize social learning theory to test the role‐modeling effect of supervisor expediency (i.e., a supervisor's use of unethical practices to expedite work for self‐serving purposes). In particular, we examine the relationship between supervisor expediency and employee expediency, as moderated by leader–member exchange (LMX) and mediated by employee unethical tolerance. We predict that employees are more likely to model their supervisors' expedient behaviors when their relationship is characterized by high‐LMX (a high‐quality exchange relationship that is rich in socioemotional support). Furthermore, we argue that supervisor expediency, especially when LMX is high, influences employees' attitudes of unethical tolerance, which then affects employees' expedient behaviors. Across 2 multisource field studies and a third time‐lagged field study, we found general support for our theoretical predictions. Theoretical and practical implications are discussed.