Analysing the sensitivity behaviour of two hydrology models

Recently, the New Morris Method has been presented as an effective sensitivity analysis tool for mathematical models. The New Morris Method estimates the sensitivity of an output parameter to a given set of input parameters (first-order effects) and the extent these parameters interact with each other (second-order effects). This method requires the specification of two parameters (runs and resolution) that control the sampling of the output parameter to determine its sensitivity to various inputs. The criteria for these parameters have been set on the analysis of a well-behaved analytical function (see Cropp and Braddock, Reliab. Eng. Syst. Saf. 78:77–83, 2002), which may not be applicable to other physical models that describe complex processes. This paper will investigate the appropriateness of the criteria from (Cropp and Braddock, 2002) and hence the effectiveness of the New Morris Method to determine the sensitivity behaviour of two hydrologic models: the Soil Erosion and Deposition System and Griffith University Representation of Urban Hydrology. In the first case, this paper will separately analyse the sensitivity of an output parameter on a set of input parameters (first- and second-order effects) for each model and discuss the physical meaning of these sensitivities. This will be followed by an investigation into the sampling criteria by exploring the convergence of the sensitivity behaviour for each model as the sampling of the parameter space is increased. By comparing these trends to the convergence behaviour from Cropp and Braddock (2002), we will determine how well the New Morris Method estimates the sensitivity for each model and whether the sampling criteria are appropriate for these models. It will be shown that the New Morris Method can provide additional insight into the functioning of these models, and that, under a different metric, the sensitivity behaviour of these models does converge confirming the sampling criteria set by Cropp and Braddock.     

Scenario Analysis for the San Pedro River, Analyzing Hydrological Consequences of a Future Environment

Studies of future management and policy options based on different assumptions provide a mechanism to examine possible outcomes and especially their likely benefits and consequences. The San Pedro River in Arizona and Sonora, Mexico is an area that has undergone rapid changes in land use and cover, and subsequently is facing keen environmental crises related to water resources. It is the location of a number of studies that have dealt with change analysis, watershed condition, and most recently, alternative futures analysis. The previous work has dealt primarily with resources of habitat, visual quality, and groundwater related to urban development patterns and preferences. In the present study, previously defined future scenarios, in the form of land-use/land-cover grids, were examined relative to their impact on surface-water conditions (e.g., surface runoff and sediment yield). These hydrological outputs were estimated for the baseline year of 2000 and predicted twenty years in the future as a demonstration of how new geographic information system-based hydrologic modeling tools can be used to evaluate the spatial impacts of urban growth patterns on surface-water hydrology.     

Microbiological characteristics in a zero-valent iron reactive barrier

Zero-valent iron (Fe⁰)-based permeable reactive barriertreatment has been generating great interest for passivegroundwater remediation, yet few studies have paid particularattention to the microbial activity and characteristics withinand in the vicinity of the Fe⁰-barrier matrix. The presentstudy was undertaken to evaluate the microbial population andcommunity composition in the reducing zone of influence byFe⁰ corrosion in the barrier at the Oak Ridge Y-12 Plantsite. Both phospholipid fatty acids and DNA analyses were usedto determine the total microbial population and microbialfunctional groups, including sulfate-reducing bacteria,denitrifying bacteria, and methanogens, in groundwater andsoil/iron core samples. A diverse microbial community wasidentified in the strongly reducing Fe⁰ environment despitea relatively high pH condition within the Fe⁰ barrier (up topH 10). In comparison with those found in the backgroundsoil/groundwater samples, the enhanced microbial populationranged from 1 to 3 orders of magnitude and appeared to increase from upgradient of the barrier to downgradient soil. Inaddition, microbial community composition appeared to change overtime, and the bacterial types of microorganismsincreased consistently as the barrier aged. DNA analysisindicated the presence of sulfate-reducing and denitrifyingbacteria in the barrier and its surrounding soil. However, theactivity of methanogens was found to be relatively low,presumably as a result of the competition by sulfate/metal-reducing bacteria and denitrifying bacteria because of the unlimited availability of sulfate and nitrate in the site groundwater. Results of this study provide evidenceof a diverse microbial population within and in the vicinity ofthe iron barrier, although the important roles of microbial activity, either beneficially or detrimentally, on the longevityand enduring efficiency of the Fe⁰ barriers are yet to be evaluated.     

From proposal to decision: Suggestions for tightening up the “NEPA process”

Although the process of documenting compliance with NEPA (the National Environmental Policy Act) requires no drastic revisions, it can be managed more rigorously. Suggestions for revision can be grouped under five major steps: 1) getting a complete proposal from the applicant; 2) getting the decision-making process onto the right decision-making path; 3) modifying the applicant's proposal 4) going down a shorter path through the EA/FONSI (environmental assessment and finding of no significant impact) or through categorical exclusion review; and 5) going down the longer path through the EIS. Step 2 is perhaps the most critical, because there a decision must be made whether to write an EA/FONSI or an EIS, on the basis of whether the proposal would “significantly affect … the … environment.” In the past, this decision has not always been made promptly or rigorously. Accordingly, we suggest that the agency responsible for NEPA compliance should develop a system (a “black box”), consisting of a core group of specialists working with an interdisciplinary team, using sophisticated techniques for modeling impacts and directing both their research and their writing according to the concept of significance. By determining more efficiently and reliably whether the impacts of a proposal would be significant, such an approach would improve management of the total process.     

Quantitative PCR analysis of house dust can reveal abnormal mold conditions

Indoor mold concentrations were measured in the dust of moldy homes (MH) and reference homes (RH) by quantitative PCR (QPCR) assays for 82 species or related groups of species (assay groups). About 70% of the species and groups were never or only rarely detected. The ratios (MH geometric mean : RH geometric mean) for 6 commonly detected species (Aspergillus ochraceus, A. penicillioides, A. unguis, A. versicolor, Eurotium group, and Cladosporium sphaerospermum) were >1 (Group I). Logistic regression analysis of the sum of the logs of the concentrations of Group I species resulted in a 95% probability for separating MH from RH. These results suggest that it may be possible to evaluate whether a home has an abnormal mold condition by quantifying a limited number of mold species in a dust sample. Also, four common species of Aspergillus were quantified by standard culturing procedures and their concentrations compared to QPCR results. Culturing underestimated the concentrations of these four species by 2 to 3 orders of magnitude compared to QPCR.     

A comparison of X-ray fluorescence and wet chemical analysis of air filter samples from a scrap lead smelting operation

Personal and area air samples were taken at a scrap lead smelter operation in a bullet manufacturing facility. Samples were taken using the 37-mm styrene-acrylonitrile closed-face filter cassette (CFC, the current US standard device for lead sampling), the 37-mm GSP or "cone" sampler, the 25-mm Institute of Occupational Medicine (IOM) inhalable sampler, and the 25-mm Button sampler (developed at the University of Cincinnati). Polyvinylchloride filters were used for sampling. The filters were pre- and post-weighed, and analyzed for lead content using a field-portable X-ray fluorescence (XRF) analyzer. The filters were then extracted with dilute nitric acid in an ultrasonic extraction bath and the solutions were analyzed by inductively coupled plasma optical emission spectroscopy. The 25-mm filters were analyzed using a single XRF reading, while three readings on different parts of the filter were taken from the 37-mm filters. The single reading from the 25-mm filters was adjusted for the nominal area of the filter to obtain the mass loading, while the three readings from the 37-mm filters were inserted into two different algorithms for calculating the mass loadings, and the algorithms were compared. The IOM sampler was designed for material collected in the body of the sampler to be part of the collected sample as well as that on the filter. Therefore, the IOM sampler cassettes were rinsed separately to determine if wall-loss corrections were necessary. All four samplers gave very good correlations between the two analytical methods above the limit of detection of the XRF procedure. The limit of detection for the 25-mm filters (5 microg) was lower than for the 37-mm filters (10 microg). The percentage of XRF results that were within 25% of the corresponding ICP results was evaluated. In addition, the bias from linear regression was estimated. Linear regression for the Button sampler and the IOM sampler using single readings and the GSP using all tested techniques for total filter loading gave acceptable XRF readings at loadings equivalent to sampling at the OSHA 8-hour Action Level and Permissible Exposure Limit. However, the CFC only had acceptable results when the center reading corrected for filter area was used, which was surprising, and may be a result of a limited data set. In addition to linear regression, simple estimation of bias indicated reasonable agreements between XRF and ICP results for single XRF readings on the Button sampler filters, (82% of the individual results within criterion), and on the IOM sampler filters (77% or 61%--see text), and on the GSP sampler filters using the OSHA algorithm (78%). As a result of this pilot project, all three samplers were considered suitable for inclusion in further field research studies.     

The study of age influence on human bone lead metabolism by using a simplified model and X-ray fluorescence data

Long term lead metabolism in the human body has never been fully understood due to the lack of human data in this area. The technological improvement of bone lead measurement systems has made bone lead data of substantial populations available. In this study, a set of X-ray fluorescence bone lead data was used to test Leggett's lead metabolism model (R. W. Leggett, Environ. Health Perspect., 1993a, 101, 598-616), especially the model of metabolism in bone. The data set includes the bone lead concentration of 539 occupationally exposed workers, of whom 327 were measured twice in five years. The bone lead concentrations of both cortical bone (tibia) and trabecular bone (calcaneus) were obtained by Cd-109 gamma-ray induced XRF measurement. The histories of blood lead concentration for these workers were used to regulate the input file of the model. The results show that the bone lead concentrations predicted by Leggett's model greatly underestimate the measured values, especially for older workers. This data set was then organized into five age groups. A new simplified model was applied to estimate the lead transfer rates between blood and lead compartments for these age groups. The original transfer rates and the new transfer rates are compared, and the differences are discussed. When the transfer rates derived from measured bone lead data were put into the input file of the model to replace the existing parameters, the predicted values were much closer to the measured values for both cortical bone and trabecular bone.     

Environmental quality control and environmental games

Conclusion  In this paper we have considered a specific environmental game emphasizing both control-prevention efforts and the propensity to pollute by a firm which adopts a given pollution abatement technology. A random payoff game was constructed and solved under a risk neutral assumption and quadratic utilities for both the firm and the environmental controller. The game thus defined, provides a wide range of interpretations and potential approaches for selecting a control-inspection policies to prevent environmental risks. There are of course many facets to this problem, which could be considered and have not been considered in sufficient depth. For example, more complex control mechanisms and liabilities, the effects of insurance and risk sharing, the application of cooperative efforts and subvention of pollution abatement investments (through tax incentives and their like), etc. have not been considered [5,7]. These are topics for further research. The basic presumption of this paper is that it is very difficult to fully enforce pollution prevention by firms, as a result, some controls are needed to ensure that firms be controlled so that appropriate efforts are carried.     

Examples of the role of analytical chemistry in environmental risk management research

Analytical chemistry is an important tier of environmental protection and has been traditionally linked to compliance and/or exposure monitoring activities for environmental contaminants. The adoption of the risk management paradigm has led to special challenges for analytical chemistry applied to environmental risk analysis. Namely, methods developed for regulated contaminants may not be appropriate and/or applicable to risk management scenarios. This paper contains examples of analytical chemistry applied to risk management challenges broken down by the analytical approach and analyte for some selected work in our laboratory. Specific techniques discussed include stable association complex electrospray mass spectrometry (cESI-MS), gas chromatography-mass spectrometry (GC-MS), split-flow thin cell (SPLITT) fractionation and matrix-assisted laser desorption time of flight mass spectrometry (MALDI-ToF-MS). Specific analytes include haloacetic acids (HAA9), perchlorate, bromate, triazine degradation products, metal-contaminated colloids and Cryptosporidium parvum oocysts.