Scenario Analysis for the San Pedro River, Analyzing Hydrological Consequences of a Future Environment

Studies of future management and policy options based on different assumptions provide a mechanism to examine possible outcomes and especially their likely benefits and consequences. The San Pedro River in Arizona and Sonora, Mexico is an area that has undergone rapid changes in land use and cover, and subsequently is facing keen environmental crises related to water resources. It is the location of a number of studies that have dealt with change analysis, watershed condition, and most recently, alternative futures analysis. The previous work has dealt primarily with resources of habitat, visual quality, and groundwater related to urban development patterns and preferences. In the present study, previously defined future scenarios, in the form of land-use/land-cover grids, were examined relative to their impact on surface-water conditions (e.g., surface runoff and sediment yield). These hydrological outputs were estimated for the baseline year of 2000 and predicted twenty years in the future as a demonstration of how new geographic information system-based hydrologic modeling tools can be used to evaluate the spatial impacts of urban growth patterns on surface-water hydrology.     

Suspended particulates and bioaerosols emitted from an agricultural non-point source

Suspended particulate and bioaerosol levels were measured at three sites downwind of an agricultural non-point source during the wheat harvesting season. Suspended particulates were detected at mean values ranging from 10000 to 2420 micrograms m-3 at distances of from 20 to 60 m downwind of the source, respectively. Airborne viable bacterial counts were recorded at mean values ranging between 10(4) and 10(6) colony forming units (cfu) m-3, whereas, Gram negative (Gram -ve) bacteria varied between 10(3) and 10(5) cfu m-3. Fungi levels were detected at mean values varying between 10(5) and 10(6) cfu m-3. However, streptomycetes were found at lower counts than those recorded for viable bacteria and fungi. Total viable bacteria, Gram -ve bacteria, fungi and streptomycetes associated hay fragments were determined at mean values of 1.5 x 10(6), 1.6 x 10(3), 2.2 x 10(4) and 6 x 10(3) cfu g-1 of hay, respectively. Cladosporium, white and red yeasts as well as Alternaria were the predominant airborne fungi, whereas, Alternaria was the dominant species associated with hay fragments. Pseudomonas, Acinetobacter and Enterobacteriaceae were the dominant Gram -ve bacteria. The most common fungal genera, such as Cladosporium and Fusarium (minor short axis), as well as Streptomyces species have an aerodynamic diameter (dae) of less than 5 microns, which can penetrate and deposit in the alveoli. Farmers and nearby residents are exposed to high levels of organic dust and bioaerosols during the wheat harvesting season. This may cause health problems in exposed persons based on toxic or allergic reactions.     

Microbiological characteristics in a zero-valent iron reactive barrier

Zero-valent iron (Fe⁰)-based permeable reactive barriertreatment has been generating great interest for passivegroundwater remediation, yet few studies have paid particularattention to the microbial activity and characteristics withinand in the vicinity of the Fe⁰-barrier matrix. The presentstudy was undertaken to evaluate the microbial population andcommunity composition in the reducing zone of influence byFe⁰ corrosion in the barrier at the Oak Ridge Y-12 Plantsite. Both phospholipid fatty acids and DNA analyses were usedto determine the total microbial population and microbialfunctional groups, including sulfate-reducing bacteria,denitrifying bacteria, and methanogens, in groundwater andsoil/iron core samples. A diverse microbial community wasidentified in the strongly reducing Fe⁰ environment despitea relatively high pH condition within the Fe⁰ barrier (up topH 10). In comparison with those found in the backgroundsoil/groundwater samples, the enhanced microbial populationranged from 1 to 3 orders of magnitude and appeared to increase from upgradient of the barrier to downgradient soil. Inaddition, microbial community composition appeared to change overtime, and the bacterial types of microorganismsincreased consistently as the barrier aged. DNA analysisindicated the presence of sulfate-reducing and denitrifyingbacteria in the barrier and its surrounding soil. However, theactivity of methanogens was found to be relatively low,presumably as a result of the competition by sulfate/metal-reducing bacteria and denitrifying bacteria because of the unlimited availability of sulfate and nitrate in the site groundwater. Results of this study provide evidenceof a diverse microbial population within and in the vicinity ofthe iron barrier, although the important roles of microbial activity, either beneficially or detrimentally, on the longevityand enduring efficiency of the Fe⁰ barriers are yet to be evaluated.     

Optimal and suboptimal control of anaerobic digesters

Anaerobic digester failure due to entry of inhibitors or sudden changes in the feed substrate concentration may be encompassed beneficially by applying optimal control theory. An almost proportional relationship between the dilution rate and the methane production rate leads to a simple suboptimal control law with only minor loss in performance, after the occurrence of the above mentioned events.     

Integrated assessment of potential health impact of global environmental change: Prospects and limitations

Estimating the future health impact of global environmental change requires scientific methods that extend beyond conventional health risk assessment in relation to existing exposures. The dynamic and non‐linear nature of these changes in large complex biophysical systems, the interactions between them, and the reference to future scenarios all contribute uncertainty. Potential health impacts can be estimated from historical analogues, by mathematical modelling, or by reasonable foresight (especially in relation to social and economic disruptions). Integrated assessment methods draw upon all these techniques. In particular, integrated mathematical modelling techniques are evolving, as scientists (and policy‐makers) come to terms with this complex scenario‐based impact assessment task.     

A national framework for monitoring and reporting on environmental sustainability in Canada

In 1991, a collaborative project to revise the terrestrial component of a national ecological framework was undertaken with a wide range of stakeholders. This spatial framework consists of multiple, nested levels of ecological generalization with linkages to existing federal and provincial scientific databases. The broadest level of generalization is the ecozone. Macroclimate, major vegetation types and subcontinental scale physiographic formations constitute the definitive components of these major ecosystems. Ecozones are subdivided into approximately 200 ecoregions which are based on properties like regional physiography, surficial geology, climate, vegetation, soil, water and fauna. The ecozone and ecoregion levels of the framework have been depicted on a national map coverage at 1:7 500 000 scale. Ecoregions have been subdivided into ecodistricts based primarily on landform, parent material, topography, soils, waterbodies and vegetation at a scale (1:2 000 000) useful for environmental resource management, monitoring and modelling activities. Nested within the ecodistricts are the polygons that make up the Soil Landscapes of Canada series of 1:1 000 000 scale soil maps. The framework is supported by an ARC-INFO GIS at Agriculture Canada. The data model allows linkage to associated databases on climate, land use and socio-economic attributes.     

Development of Ecological Land Classification and mapping in support of forest management in northern Newfoundland,Canada

For the sustainable development of forest land, as recently prescribed by the Canadian Forest Strategy, a land classification project in northern Newfoundland was initiated to support the local forest management activities. The method adopted here is a modification of the Canadian Committee for Ecological Land Classification's (CCELC) system, and it applies various levels of mapping to uniform areas based on geomorphology, soils, vegetation, climate, water, and fauna.In this study, all CCELC levels were mapped; resulting maps were digitized and imported into a Geographic Informations System (GIS). The GIS data base contained the following maps: 1) digital terrain model, 2) bedrock geology, 3) surficial geology, 4) forest inventory, and 5) various levels of the ecological land classification, including Vegetation Types at the lowest level. In addition to the mapping, mensurational data were analyzed to provide stand and stock tables for each of the forest types, including growth curves that could be entered into specific forest growth modelling systems to predict wood supply scenarios based upon different management interventions.     

Impact of desertification on temperature trends in the Middle East

The intense interest in desertification and climate change has stimulated detailed studies of temperature records in many areas of the world. In this investigation, the temperature records from the Middle East region are analyzed over the period 1950–1990. Results reveal a linear, statistically significant temperature increase of 0.07 °C/decade over the 41-year period. An analysis of spatial controls on these temperature changes reveals a warming effect associated with both overgrazing and the degree of human-induced desertification. The results of this study are consistent with theoretical and empirical studies predicting and demonstrating a warming signal associated with these land surface changes in the world's dryland areas.     

Assessing the influence of altitude and temperature on biological monitoring of freshwater quality: A preliminary investigation

The effect of altitude and water temperature on biomonitoring of freshwater quality was examined along an unpolluted area (36 km in length) of the upper Río Tajo (central Spain). The macrobenthic and fish communities were studied, and the Biological Monitoring Water Quality (BMWQ) method was applied. As expected, values of altitude and temperature respectively decreased and increased with increasing distance from the river source; these two physical parameters exhibited a negative and significant (P<0.05) correlation coefficient between them. However, despite evident changes in the functional structure of both aquatic communities along the study area, BMWQ scores were similar at all sampling sites. Pearson correlation coefficients between physical and biological parameters were not significant (P>0.05). The BMWQ index only exhibited significant (positive) correlation coefficients with macrobenthic and fish biomasses, indicating that freshwater quality could affect the biological production of fluvial ecosystems. It is concluded that biomonitoring of freshwater quality may be independent of the influence of altitude and water temperature at local spatial scales. Nonetheless, further investigations would be needed to clearly differentiate between the effects of anthropogenic and natural causes on biological monitoring at larger spatial scales.     

From proposal to decision: Suggestions for tightening up the “NEPA process”

Although the process of documenting compliance with NEPA (the National Environmental Policy Act) requires no drastic revisions, it can be managed more rigorously. Suggestions for revision can be grouped under five major steps: 1) getting a complete proposal from the applicant; 2) getting the decision-making process onto the right decision-making path; 3) modifying the applicant's proposal 4) going down a shorter path through the EA/FONSI (environmental assessment and finding of no significant impact) or through categorical exclusion review; and 5) going down the longer path through the EIS. Step 2 is perhaps the most critical, because there a decision must be made whether to write an EA/FONSI or an EIS, on the basis of whether the proposal would “significantly affect … the … environment.” In the past, this decision has not always been made promptly or rigorously. Accordingly, we suggest that the agency responsible for NEPA compliance should develop a system (a “black box”), consisting of a core group of specialists working with an interdisciplinary team, using sophisticated techniques for modeling impacts and directing both their research and their writing according to the concept of significance. By determining more efficiently and reliably whether the impacts of a proposal would be significant, such an approach would improve management of the total process.