Analysing the sensitivity behaviour of two hydrology models

Recently, the New Morris Method has been presented as an effective sensitivity analysis tool for mathematical models. The New Morris Method estimates the sensitivity of an output parameter to a given set of input parameters (first-order effects) and the extent these parameters interact with each other (second-order effects). This method requires the specification of two parameters (runs and resolution) that control the sampling of the output parameter to determine its sensitivity to various inputs. The criteria for these parameters have been set on the analysis of a well-behaved analytical function (see Cropp and Braddock, Reliab. Eng. Syst. Saf. 78:77–83, 2002), which may not be applicable to other physical models that describe complex processes. This paper will investigate the appropriateness of the criteria from (Cropp and Braddock, 2002) and hence the effectiveness of the New Morris Method to determine the sensitivity behaviour of two hydrologic models: the Soil Erosion and Deposition System and Griffith University Representation of Urban Hydrology. In the first case, this paper will separately analyse the sensitivity of an output parameter on a set of input parameters (first- and second-order effects) for each model and discuss the physical meaning of these sensitivities. This will be followed by an investigation into the sampling criteria by exploring the convergence of the sensitivity behaviour for each model as the sampling of the parameter space is increased. By comparing these trends to the convergence behaviour from Cropp and Braddock (2002), we will determine how well the New Morris Method estimates the sensitivity for each model and whether the sampling criteria are appropriate for these models. It will be shown that the New Morris Method can provide additional insight into the functioning of these models, and that, under a different metric, the sensitivity behaviour of these models does converge confirming the sampling criteria set by Cropp and Braddock.     

Scenario Analysis for the San Pedro River, Analyzing Hydrological Consequences of a Future Environment

Studies of future management and policy options based on different assumptions provide a mechanism to examine possible outcomes and especially their likely benefits and consequences. The San Pedro River in Arizona and Sonora, Mexico is an area that has undergone rapid changes in land use and cover, and subsequently is facing keen environmental crises related to water resources. It is the location of a number of studies that have dealt with change analysis, watershed condition, and most recently, alternative futures analysis. The previous work has dealt primarily with resources of habitat, visual quality, and groundwater related to urban development patterns and preferences. In the present study, previously defined future scenarios, in the form of land-use/land-cover grids, were examined relative to their impact on surface-water conditions (e.g., surface runoff and sediment yield). These hydrological outputs were estimated for the baseline year of 2000 and predicted twenty years in the future as a demonstration of how new geographic information system-based hydrologic modeling tools can be used to evaluate the spatial impacts of urban growth patterns on surface-water hydrology.     

Microbiological characteristics in a zero-valent iron reactive barrier

Zero-valent iron (Fe⁰)-based permeable reactive barriertreatment has been generating great interest for passivegroundwater remediation, yet few studies have paid particularattention to the microbial activity and characteristics withinand in the vicinity of the Fe⁰-barrier matrix. The presentstudy was undertaken to evaluate the microbial population andcommunity composition in the reducing zone of influence byFe⁰ corrosion in the barrier at the Oak Ridge Y-12 Plantsite. Both phospholipid fatty acids and DNA analyses were usedto determine the total microbial population and microbialfunctional groups, including sulfate-reducing bacteria,denitrifying bacteria, and methanogens, in groundwater andsoil/iron core samples. A diverse microbial community wasidentified in the strongly reducing Fe⁰ environment despitea relatively high pH condition within the Fe⁰ barrier (up topH 10). In comparison with those found in the backgroundsoil/groundwater samples, the enhanced microbial populationranged from 1 to 3 orders of magnitude and appeared to increase from upgradient of the barrier to downgradient soil. Inaddition, microbial community composition appeared to change overtime, and the bacterial types of microorganismsincreased consistently as the barrier aged. DNA analysisindicated the presence of sulfate-reducing and denitrifyingbacteria in the barrier and its surrounding soil. However, theactivity of methanogens was found to be relatively low,presumably as a result of the competition by sulfate/metal-reducing bacteria and denitrifying bacteria because of the unlimited availability of sulfate and nitrate in the site groundwater. Results of this study provide evidenceof a diverse microbial population within and in the vicinity ofthe iron barrier, although the important roles of microbial activity, either beneficially or detrimentally, on the longevityand enduring efficiency of the Fe⁰ barriers are yet to be evaluated.     

From proposal to decision: Suggestions for tightening up the “NEPA process”

Although the process of documenting compliance with NEPA (the National Environmental Policy Act) requires no drastic revisions, it can be managed more rigorously. Suggestions for revision can be grouped under five major steps: 1) getting a complete proposal from the applicant; 2) getting the decision-making process onto the right decision-making path; 3) modifying the applicant's proposal 4) going down a shorter path through the EA/FONSI (environmental assessment and finding of no significant impact) or through categorical exclusion review; and 5) going down the longer path through the EIS. Step 2 is perhaps the most critical, because there a decision must be made whether to write an EA/FONSI or an EIS, on the basis of whether the proposal would “significantly affect … the … environment.” In the past, this decision has not always been made promptly or rigorously. Accordingly, we suggest that the agency responsible for NEPA compliance should develop a system (a “black box”), consisting of a core group of specialists working with an interdisciplinary team, using sophisticated techniques for modeling impacts and directing both their research and their writing according to the concept of significance. By determining more efficiently and reliably whether the impacts of a proposal would be significant, such an approach would improve management of the total process.     

Quantitative PCR analysis of house dust can reveal abnormal mold conditions

Indoor mold concentrations were measured in the dust of moldy homes (MH) and reference homes (RH) by quantitative PCR (QPCR) assays for 82 species or related groups of species (assay groups). About 70% of the species and groups were never or only rarely detected. The ratios (MH geometric mean : RH geometric mean) for 6 commonly detected species (Aspergillus ochraceus, A. penicillioides, A. unguis, A. versicolor, Eurotium group, and Cladosporium sphaerospermum) were >1 (Group I). Logistic regression analysis of the sum of the logs of the concentrations of Group I species resulted in a 95% probability for separating MH from RH. These results suggest that it may be possible to evaluate whether a home has an abnormal mold condition by quantifying a limited number of mold species in a dust sample. Also, four common species of Aspergillus were quantified by standard culturing procedures and their concentrations compared to QPCR results. Culturing underestimated the concentrations of these four species by 2 to 3 orders of magnitude compared to QPCR.     

Analysis of BTEX and other substituted benzenes in water using headspace SPME-GC-FID: method validation

The analysis of BTEX and other substituted benzenes in water samples using solid phase microextraction (SPME) and quantification by gas chromatography with flame ionization detection (GC-FID) was validated. The best analytical conditions were obtained using PDMS/DVB/CAR fibre using headspace extraction (HS-SPME) at 50 [degree]C for 20 min without stirring. The linear range for each compound by HS-SPME with GC/FID was defined. The detection limits for these compounds obtained with PDMS/DVB/CAR fibre and GC/FID were: benzene (15 ng L(-1)), toluene (160 ng L(-1)), monochlorobenzene (54 ng L(-1)), ethylbenzene (32 ng L(-1)), m-xylene (56 ng L(-1)), p-xylene (69 ng L(-1)), styrene (35 ng L(-1)), o-xylene (42 ng L(-1)), m-dichlorobenzene (180 ng L(-1)), p-dichlorobenzene (230 ng L(-1)), o-dichlorobenzene (250 ng L(-1)) and trichlorobenzene (260 ng L(-1)). This headspace SPME-GC-FID method was compared with a previously validated method of analysis using closed-loop-stripping analysis (CLSA). The headspace SPME-GC-FID method is suitable for monitoring the production and distribution of potable water and was used, in field trials, for the analysis of samples from main intakes of water (surface or underground) and from the water supply system of a large area (Lisbon and neighbouring municipalities).     

Competitive Retention of Lead and Cadmium on an Agricultural Soil

Lead and cadmium contamination of an agricultural soil has been studied using batch and column experiments. Thermodynamics of theretention phenomena may be represented by a Langmuir isotherm foran aqueous metal concentration up to 100 mg L^-1. First order kinetics with respect to the solid phase yield good predictabilityfor both batch and column experiments. Kinetics and thermodynamics of lead retention predominate over those ofcadmium. As a consequence, lead is preferentially retainedand can even displace sorbed cadmium. In the event of anspill involving both metals, cadmium would move further inthe soil and its aqueous concentration downstream could beeven higher than that of the influent solution, increasingpotential risks. A two-region model has been used to fit all the experimental results. Satisfactory predictions for column experiments are obtained with parameters which are consistent with those obtained for the batch experiments, for which sorption is described by a Langmuir isotherm including competitive retention.     

Higher Plants As Bioindicators Of Sulphur Dioxide Emissions In Urban Environments

The evaluation of certain vascular plants that grow in the city of Madrid as biomonitors of SO₂ air pollution in urban environments has been carried out. Total concentration of sulphur in leaves of the chosen higher plants as well as other parameters in close relation to this contaminant (visible injury symptoms, chlorophyll a- and b-content and peroxidase activity) have been determined in order to study the spatial distribution and temporal changes in SO₂ deposition. Results obtained show that coniferous species such as Pinus pinea, were more sensitive to SO₂ atmospheric concentration than leafy species as Quercux ilex subspecies ballota and, in the same way, bush species, such asPyracantha coccinea and Nerium oleander, were more sensitive than wooded species, such as Cedrus deodaraandPinus pinea, respectively. There is a higher accumulation of sulphur in vegetable species located near highways and dense traffic incidence roads and near areas with high density of population. The minimum values for accumulation of SO₂ were registered in winter and spring seasons (from January to April) due to the vegetative stop; while maximum values are obtained during the summer season (from June to September), due to the stoma opening. The highest increments in sulphur concentration, calculated as the difference between two consecutive months, are obtained in May and June for all considered species except forCedrus deodara and Pyracantha coccinea, both species have few seasonal changes during the whole year. Some species are more sensitive to natural washing than others, showing a decrease in sulphur concentration after rainfall periods.     

Using Wet-FGD systems for mercury removal

A plan to control mercury emissions to the atmosphere and to establish mercury emission limits has recently been elaborated by the European Commission, making it necessary to devise an efficient and cost effective mercury removal technology. Towards this end wet flue gas desulfurization units appear as a promising option for multi-pollutant control. However, more investigation on mercury removal and a greater mercury removal efficiency are required to achieve this objective. In the present work scrubber chemistry and the application of various solid additives to enhance mercury removal in wet scrubbers is evaluated. The results obtained show a significant correlation between mercury removal efficiency and the pH of the scrubber slurry and SO2 concentration. A weaker correlation was observed between oxygen or slurry concentration and removal efficiency. Finally several solid oxides were found to be effective additives for enhancing mercury capture in wet scrubbers.