Analysing the sensitivity behaviour of two hydrology models

Recently, the New Morris Method has been presented as an effective sensitivity analysis tool for mathematical models. The New Morris Method estimates the sensitivity of an output parameter to a given set of input parameters (first-order effects) and the extent these parameters interact with each other (second-order effects). This method requires the specification of two parameters (runs and resolution) that control the sampling of the output parameter to determine its sensitivity to various inputs. The criteria for these parameters have been set on the analysis of a well-behaved analytical function (see Cropp and Braddock, Reliab. Eng. Syst. Saf. 78:77–83, 2002), which may not be applicable to other physical models that describe complex processes. This paper will investigate the appropriateness of the criteria from (Cropp and Braddock, 2002) and hence the effectiveness of the New Morris Method to determine the sensitivity behaviour of two hydrologic models: the Soil Erosion and Deposition System and Griffith University Representation of Urban Hydrology. In the first case, this paper will separately analyse the sensitivity of an output parameter on a set of input parameters (first- and second-order effects) for each model and discuss the physical meaning of these sensitivities. This will be followed by an investigation into the sampling criteria by exploring the convergence of the sensitivity behaviour for each model as the sampling of the parameter space is increased. By comparing these trends to the convergence behaviour from Cropp and Braddock (2002), we will determine how well the New Morris Method estimates the sensitivity for each model and whether the sampling criteria are appropriate for these models. It will be shown that the New Morris Method can provide additional insight into the functioning of these models, and that, under a different metric, the sensitivity behaviour of these models does converge confirming the sampling criteria set by Cropp and Braddock.     

Scenario Analysis for the San Pedro River, Analyzing Hydrological Consequences of a Future Environment

Studies of future management and policy options based on different assumptions provide a mechanism to examine possible outcomes and especially their likely benefits and consequences. The San Pedro River in Arizona and Sonora, Mexico is an area that has undergone rapid changes in land use and cover, and subsequently is facing keen environmental crises related to water resources. It is the location of a number of studies that have dealt with change analysis, watershed condition, and most recently, alternative futures analysis. The previous work has dealt primarily with resources of habitat, visual quality, and groundwater related to urban development patterns and preferences. In the present study, previously defined future scenarios, in the form of land-use/land-cover grids, were examined relative to their impact on surface-water conditions (e.g., surface runoff and sediment yield). These hydrological outputs were estimated for the baseline year of 2000 and predicted twenty years in the future as a demonstration of how new geographic information system-based hydrologic modeling tools can be used to evaluate the spatial impacts of urban growth patterns on surface-water hydrology.     

Suspended particulates and bioaerosols emitted from an agricultural non-point source

Suspended particulate and bioaerosol levels were measured at three sites downwind of an agricultural non-point source during the wheat harvesting season. Suspended particulates were detected at mean values ranging from 10000 to 2420 micrograms m-3 at distances of from 20 to 60 m downwind of the source, respectively. Airborne viable bacterial counts were recorded at mean values ranging between 10(4) and 10(6) colony forming units (cfu) m-3, whereas, Gram negative (Gram -ve) bacteria varied between 10(3) and 10(5) cfu m-3. Fungi levels were detected at mean values varying between 10(5) and 10(6) cfu m-3. However, streptomycetes were found at lower counts than those recorded for viable bacteria and fungi. Total viable bacteria, Gram -ve bacteria, fungi and streptomycetes associated hay fragments were determined at mean values of 1.5 x 10(6), 1.6 x 10(3), 2.2 x 10(4) and 6 x 10(3) cfu g-1 of hay, respectively. Cladosporium, white and red yeasts as well as Alternaria were the predominant airborne fungi, whereas, Alternaria was the dominant species associated with hay fragments. Pseudomonas, Acinetobacter and Enterobacteriaceae were the dominant Gram -ve bacteria. The most common fungal genera, such as Cladosporium and Fusarium (minor short axis), as well as Streptomyces species have an aerodynamic diameter (dae) of less than 5 microns, which can penetrate and deposit in the alveoli. Farmers and nearby residents are exposed to high levels of organic dust and bioaerosols during the wheat harvesting season. This may cause health problems in exposed persons based on toxic or allergic reactions.     

Microbiological characteristics in a zero-valent iron reactive barrier

Zero-valent iron (Fe⁰)-based permeable reactive barriertreatment has been generating great interest for passivegroundwater remediation, yet few studies have paid particularattention to the microbial activity and characteristics withinand in the vicinity of the Fe⁰-barrier matrix. The presentstudy was undertaken to evaluate the microbial population andcommunity composition in the reducing zone of influence byFe⁰ corrosion in the barrier at the Oak Ridge Y-12 Plantsite. Both phospholipid fatty acids and DNA analyses were usedto determine the total microbial population and microbialfunctional groups, including sulfate-reducing bacteria,denitrifying bacteria, and methanogens, in groundwater andsoil/iron core samples. A diverse microbial community wasidentified in the strongly reducing Fe⁰ environment despitea relatively high pH condition within the Fe⁰ barrier (up topH 10). In comparison with those found in the backgroundsoil/groundwater samples, the enhanced microbial populationranged from 1 to 3 orders of magnitude and appeared to increase from upgradient of the barrier to downgradient soil. Inaddition, microbial community composition appeared to change overtime, and the bacterial types of microorganismsincreased consistently as the barrier aged. DNA analysisindicated the presence of sulfate-reducing and denitrifyingbacteria in the barrier and its surrounding soil. However, theactivity of methanogens was found to be relatively low,presumably as a result of the competition by sulfate/metal-reducing bacteria and denitrifying bacteria because of the unlimited availability of sulfate and nitrate in the site groundwater. Results of this study provide evidenceof a diverse microbial population within and in the vicinity ofthe iron barrier, although the important roles of microbial activity, either beneficially or detrimentally, on the longevityand enduring efficiency of the Fe⁰ barriers are yet to be evaluated.     

Control of rumen methanogenesis

During the last decades, considerable research on methane production in the rumen and its inhibition has been carried out. Initially, as methane production represents a significant loss of gross energy in the feed (2–15%), the ultimate goal of such intervention in rumen fermentation was an increase in feed efficiency. A second reason favouring research on methane inhibition is its role in the global warming phenomenon and in the destruction of the ozone layer. In this review, the authors describe briefly several interventions for reducing methane emission by ruminants. The objective can be reached by intervention at the dietary level by ration manipulation (composition, feeding level) or by the use of additives or supplements. Examples of additives are polyhalogenated compounds, ionophores and other antibiotics. Supplementation of the ration with lipids also lowered methanogenesis. More biotechnological interventions, e.g., defaunation, probiotics and introduction of reductive acetogenesis in the rumen, are also mentioned. It can be concluded that drastic inhibition of methane production is not unequivocally successful as a result of several factors, such as: instantaneous inhibition often followed by restoration of methanogenesis due to adaptation of the microbes or degradation of the additive, toxicity for the host animal, negative effects on overall digestion and productive performance. Therefore, methanogenesis and its inhibition cannot be considered as a separate part of rumen fermentation and its consequences on the animal should be taken into account.     

From proposal to decision: Suggestions for tightening up the “NEPA process”

Although the process of documenting compliance with NEPA (the National Environmental Policy Act) requires no drastic revisions, it can be managed more rigorously. Suggestions for revision can be grouped under five major steps: 1) getting a complete proposal from the applicant; 2) getting the decision-making process onto the right decision-making path; 3) modifying the applicant's proposal 4) going down a shorter path through the EA/FONSI (environmental assessment and finding of no significant impact) or through categorical exclusion review; and 5) going down the longer path through the EIS. Step 2 is perhaps the most critical, because there a decision must be made whether to write an EA/FONSI or an EIS, on the basis of whether the proposal would “significantly affect … the … environment.” In the past, this decision has not always been made promptly or rigorously. Accordingly, we suggest that the agency responsible for NEPA compliance should develop a system (a “black box”), consisting of a core group of specialists working with an interdisciplinary team, using sophisticated techniques for modeling impacts and directing both their research and their writing according to the concept of significance. By determining more efficiently and reliably whether the impacts of a proposal would be significant, such an approach would improve management of the total process.     

Development of an ombrotrophic peat bog (low ash) reference material for the determination of elemental concentrations

Given the increasing interest in using peat bogs as archives of atmospheric metal deposition, the lack of validated sample preparation methods and suitable certified reference materials has hindered not only the quality assurance of the generated analytical data but also the interpretation and comparison of peat core metal profiles from different laboratories in the international community. Reference materials play an important role in the evaluation of the accuracy of analytical results and are essential parts of good laboratory practice. An ombrotrophic peat bog reference material has been developed by 14 laboratories from nine countries in an inter-laboratory comparison between February and October 2002. The material has been characterised for both acid-extractable and total concentrations of a range of elements, including Al, As, Ca, Cd, Cr, Cu, Fe, Hg, Mg, Mn, Na, Ni, P, Pb, Ti, V and Zn. The steps involved in the production of the reference material (i.e. collection and preparation, homogeneity and stability studies, and certification) are described in detail.     

Quantitative PCR analysis of house dust can reveal abnormal mold conditions

Indoor mold concentrations were measured in the dust of moldy homes (MH) and reference homes (RH) by quantitative PCR (QPCR) assays for 82 species or related groups of species (assay groups). About 70% of the species and groups were never or only rarely detected. The ratios (MH geometric mean : RH geometric mean) for 6 commonly detected species (Aspergillus ochraceus, A. penicillioides, A. unguis, A. versicolor, Eurotium group, and Cladosporium sphaerospermum) were >1 (Group I). Logistic regression analysis of the sum of the logs of the concentrations of Group I species resulted in a 95% probability for separating MH from RH. These results suggest that it may be possible to evaluate whether a home has an abnormal mold condition by quantifying a limited number of mold species in a dust sample. Also, four common species of Aspergillus were quantified by standard culturing procedures and their concentrations compared to QPCR results. Culturing underestimated the concentrations of these four species by 2 to 3 orders of magnitude compared to QPCR.     

The fate of fipronil in modular estuarine mesocosms

The degradation and corresponding product manifold for the pesticide fipronil was determined in three replicate estuarine mesocosms. Aqueous fipronil concentrations rapidly decreased over the 672 h timescale of the experiment (95% removal). Loss was apparently first-order in fipronil, although there appeared to be a change in the removal mechanism after 96 h that corresponded to a dramatic slowdown in its disappearance. The reduction product of fipronil, fipronil sulfide, was not detected in the water column; however, it formed rapidly in sediments and was identified as the major product of fipronil degradation in the system (20% yield at 672 h, with respect to initial fipronil concentration). Fipronil sulfone is thought to form primarily via biological oxidation; and, although it was generated rapidly in the water column (10% yield), only trace amounts were detected in the sediment (1% yield). The direct photolysis product of fipronil, fipronil desulfinyl, was present in all samples; it formed rapidly in the water column (4% yield) and partitioned into the sediment phase (7% yield) over the course of the experiment. The mass balance on fipronil and associated products was 42% at 672 h.