Slash fire hazard analysis on the Siskiyou National Forest

Potential increase in fire hazard as a result of timber harvesting is a concern of forest managers throughout the United States. Treating fuels can help reduce unacceptable fire hazards. To evaluate alternative fuel treatments, managers need to know their effects on fire hazard. A decision analysis approach to estimating fire hazard in terms of expected burned area was applied to a watershed in the Siskiyou National Forest (Oregon). Three treatment alternatives (do nothing and two levels of yarding unmerchantable material) were evaluated, and the effects of the treatments were projected over a 90-yr period. Initially, the effects of applying a treatment are small. After 50 years of treatment, the most intense alternative can be expected to show almost a 50% reduction in burned area compared to no treatment. The procedure also estimates burned are by fire size and fire intensity classes. Managers may find this useful for estimating expected fire effects associated with a particular fuel treatment regime.     

Strategies for controlling hazards at work

This paper presents an heuristic framework for analyzing hazards (potential for loss or harm) and strategies that may be developed to control their realization. Two basic forms of intervention for hazard control (anticipation and reaction) are identified. Three broad anticipative strategies are discussed: (1) elimination of the source of the hazard, (2) containment of the risk of its realization, and (3) mitigation of likely consequences. The communication and judgmental processes involved in decisions about strategies are shown to be embedded in the organizational “political” context, in which a variety of interests backed by varying sources of power and influence are represented. The development, implementation, and monitoring of any strategies that are decided upon are then discussed, including the fact that such actions and events may not produce the intended results. Comments are also made on the need for data provided by monitoring to be evaluated and appropriate adaptations made. Finally, a brief section of the paper discusses reactive strategies.     

The effect of right-turn-on-red on pedestrian and bicyclist accidents

Right-Turn-on-Red (RTOR), in its “Western” version allows motorists to turn right on a red signal after stopping and yielding, unless specifically prohibited by a sign. The objective of this study was to determine the effect of Western RTOR on pedestrian and bicycle accidents in selected jurisdictions adopting the rule in the mid-1970s. The results showed significant increases in pedestrian and bicyclist accidents involving right-turning vehicles at signalized locations following the introduction of Western RTOR. These increases were: 40 % for pedestrians and 82 % for bicycles in New York State; 107 % for pedestrians and 72 % for bicycles in Wisconsin; 57 % for pedestrians and 80 % for bicycles in Ohio; and 82 % for pedestrians in New Orleans. Analysis of police accident reports suggested that drivers stopped for a red light are looking left for a gap in traffic and do not see pedestrians and bicyclists coming from their right. Countermeasure research and development was recommended to deal with this well defined problem which involves between 1 % and 3 % of all pedestrian and bicycle accidents.     

Reviews

Planning theory

Andreas Faludi

Pergamon Press, Oxford, 1973. Hard cover £4.75, flexi‐cover £3.

PLANNING AND THE INNOVATION PROCESS (Progress in Planning, Vol. 1, Part 3)

Ray Jefferson

Pergamon Press, Oxford, 1973

THRESHOLD ANALYSIS MANUAL

Scottish Development Department H.M.S.O., London, 1973. £6

THE PLANNER IN SOCIETY: THE CHANGING ROLE OF A PROFESSION

David Eversley

Faber and Faber, London, 1973. £4.75.

SUB‐REGIONAL PLANNING STUDIES: AN EVALUATION

T. M. Cowling and G. C. Steeley

Pergamon Press, Oxford, 1973. £3.80

SKETCHBOOKS OF PAOLO SOLERI

Paolo Soleri.

M.I.T. Press, Cambridge, Massachusetts & London, England, 1971.

ARCOLOGY: THE CITY IN THE IMAGE OF MAN.

Paolo Soleri.

M.I.T. Press, Cambridge, Massachusetts & London, England, 1969.

FREDERICK LAW OLMSTED AND THE AMERICAN ENVIRONMENTAL TRADITION

Albert Fein

George Braziller, New York. $10.00 cloth. $3.95 paper.

ECOLOGY AND RECLAMATION OF DEVASTED LAND (2 vols.) ed. Russel Hutnick and Grant Davis

Gordon and Breach, New York, 1973. £25.00.

MAN MADE THE LAND: Essays in English Historical Geography

Ed. Alan R. H. Baker and J. B. Harley.

David and Charles, Newton Abbot, 1973. £5.25.

THE UNKNOWN URBAN REALM (Vol. 2, Europe 2,000, Project 3, Urbanization, Planning Human Environment in Europe)

U. Neveling, R. Sulzer, W. Ubbens, G. Wersig.

Martinus Nijhoff, The Hague, 1973.     

Public-Health Impact of Outdoor Air Pollution in Russia

Based on the well-known approaches to risk assessment, estimates of the number of attributable deaths caused by atmospheric air pollution in the towns of Russia have been obtained. The data of daily monitoring of air pollution in 1993 and 1998 carried out by Rosgidromet (Weather Service of Russia) were used for assessment. The epidemiology-based exposure–response function for a 10 g/m³ increase in particulate matter PM₁₀ was used to assess the attributable number of cases of deaths in Russia. The EPA approach was applied to derive the risk of carcinogenesis caused by outdoor carcinogens controlled by Rosgidromet. In the present paper, it has been shown that up to 219–233 thousands of premature deaths or 15–17% out of the total annual mortality might be caused by air pollution in Russia. The data are given on a possible contribution of various carcinogens controlled by Rosgidromet at the stations of constant observation to the total mortality caused by atmospheric pollution. On the whole, the number of people that fell ill with cancer as a result of exposure to all the carcinogens present in the atmosphere can be assessed within the range of 2000–4000 humans. This assessment estimates the public-health impacts of air pollution. At the present time, we have no information concerning the degree of universality of the exposure–response function for PM₁₀ and its sensitivity to a change in social-demographic indicators. Nevertheless, the assessments, given in the present work, make it possible to obtain important information concerning the possible scale of health-outcome due to atmospheric pollution for the population of Russia.     

Uranium bioassay and radioactive dust measurements at some uranium processing sites in Egypt--health effects

The safety of radiation workers in the uranium mining industry requires close and continuous monitoring of their working conditions. In this study, external radiation surveillance, radioactive dust monitoring and the bioassay of uranium were carried out in some processing sites. As dust represents one of the most important sources of radiation exposure in mills and mines, dust monitoring and bioassays were performed for a sample of workers on the production lines. The concentration of uranium in air ranged from 22.6 x 10(-7) to 11.1 x 10(-5) Bq cm-3, and the exposure levels ranged from 1 to 80 microSv h-1. Laser fluorimetric determination of uranium in urine samples showed concentrations in the range 8.4-29.2 micrograms L-1. Renal function parameters, such as serum creatinine and urea, and hematological parameters were determined in an attempt to correlate them with radiation exposure and the health status of the workers. Urine specimens collected from workers at the ore crushing and separation site showed elevated concentrations of uranium (up to 29.2 micrograms L-1) and a strong correlation between these concentrations and the registered serum creatinine. The mean uranium excretion in the investigated group was more than 20 times the occupational exposure decision level for urine uranium of 0.8 microgram L-1.     

Characterisation of mineralogical forms of barium and trace heavy metal impurities in commercial barytes by EPMA, XRD and ICP-MS

This study was carried out to characterise the mineralogical forms of barium and the trace heavy metal impurities in commercial barytes of different origins using electron probe microanalysis (EPMA), X-ray diffraction (XRD) and inductively coupled plasma mass spectrometry (ICP-MS). Qualitative EPMA results show the presence of typically eight different minerals in commercial barytes including barite (BaSO4), barium feldspar, galena (PbS), pyrite (FeS2), sphalerite (ZnS), quartz (SiO2), and silicates, etc. Quantitative EPMA confirms that the barite crystals in the barytes contain some strontium and a little calcium, whereas trace heavy metals occur in the associated minerals. Analysis of aqua regia extracts of barytes samples by ICP-MS has shown the presence of a large number of elements in the associated minerals. Arsenic, copper and zinc concentrations correlate closely in all 10 samples. The findings suggest that barytes is not, as traditionally thought, an inert mineral, but is a potentially toxic substance due to its associated heavy metal impurities, which can be determined by an aqua regia digest without the need for complete dissolution of the barite itself. X-ray powder diffraction was not informative as the complex barite pattern masks the very weak lines from the small amounts of associated minerals.     

The stable isotope signature of methane emitted from plant material under UV irradiation

Recent experiments have shown that dry and fresh leaves, other plant matter, as well as several structural plant components, emit methane upon irradiation with UV light. Here we present the source isotope signatures of the methane emitted from a range of dry natural plant leaves and structural compounds. UV-induced methane from organic matter is strongly depleted in both ¹³C and D compared to the bulk biomass. The isotopic content of plant methoxyl groups, which have been identified as important precursors of aerobic methane formation in plants, falls roughly halfway between the bulk and CH₄ isotopic composition. C3 and C4/CAM plants show the well-established isotope difference in bulk ¹³C content. Our results show that they also emit CH₄ with different δ¹³C value. Furthermore, δ¹³C of methoxyl groups in the plant material, and ester methoxyl groups only, show a similar difference between C3 and C4/CAM plants. The correlation between the δ¹³C of emitted CH₄ and methoxyl groups implies that methoxyl groups are not the only source substrate of CH₄.Interestingly, δD values of the emitted CH₄ are also found to be different for C3 and C4 plants, although there is no significant difference in the bulk material. Bulk δD analyses may be compromised by a large reservoir of exchangeable hydrogen, but no significant δD difference is found either for the methoxyl groups, which do not contain exchangeable hydrogen. The δD difference in CH₄ between C3 and C4 plants indicates that at least two different reservoirs are involved in CH₄ emission. One of them is the OCH₃ group, the other one must be significantly depleted, and contribute more to the emissions of C3 plants compared to C4 plants. In qualitative agreement with this hypothesis, CH₄ emission rates are higher for C3 plants than for C4 plants.     

Statistical Power of Presence-Absence Data to Detect Population Declines

Abstract: Population declines may be inferred from a decrease in the number of sites at which a species is detected. Although such presence-absence data often are interpreted informally, it is simple to test the statistical significance of changes in the number of sites occupied by a species. I used simulations to examine the statistical power (i.e., the probability of making the Type II error that no population decline has occurred when the population actually has declined) of presence-absence designs. Most presence-absence designs have low power to detect declines of < 20–50% in populations but have adequate power to detect steeper declines. Power was greater if the population disappeared entirely from a subset of formerly occupied sites than if it declined evenly over its entire range. Power also rose with (1) increases in the number of sites surveyed; (2) increases in population density or sampling effort at a site; and (3) decreases in spatial variance in population density. Because of potential problems with bias and inadequate power, presence-absence designs should be used and interpreted cautiously.