The case for nuclear electric power

Summary What role should the United States play in the energy economy of the world? Do we want to be uninvolved? Do we sit back and let the other industrial countries supply the rest of the world with nuclear power? Already, the world with four billion people and too high a growth rate is headed for trouble that could engulf us all. Four of five decades from now, when the population will have doubled to eight billion, the low sophistication level of today's energy users will very likely have run the total energy use very high. We in the United States will not only have our own energy problems; there will be an imperative need for a world energy policy, and we should be part of the negotiation. The United States will have to be more than self-sufficient. Power from uranium and thorium will expectably be our backbone. both at home and abroad. Among other things, Americans cannot afford to have profligate worldwide use of fossil fuel, with the expected movement of good crop weather northward, away from the best food-producing areas. American agriculture might be hit the hardest. Problems like these are world problems, and they just won't go away. We are part of them. Is it not to our own interest to have our own energy situation under control, so we can help shape the global outcome? This article is reprinted (excerpted) with the permission of Education Development Center, Inc., from “The Case for Nuclear Electric Power”, Occasional Paper No. 1 by Saville R. Davis and Jerrold R. Zacharias of the Energy in Perspective Project, funded by the Business Roundtable, the John D. and Catherine T. MacArthur Foundation, and Massachusetts Institute of Technology, For Biographic sketches of the Authors please see pages 305–306.     

Statistical Evaluation of Variables Affecting Occurrence of Hydrocarbons in Aquifers Used for Public Supply,California

The variables affecting the occurrence of hydrocarbons in aquifers used for public supply in California were assessed based on statistical evaluation of three large statewide datasets; gasoline oxygenates also were analyzed for comparison with hydrocarbons. Benzene is the most frequently detected (1.7%) compound among 17 hydrocarbons analyzed at generally low concentrations (median detected concentration 0.024 μg/l) in groundwater used for public supply in California; methyl tert‐butyl ether (MTBE) is the most frequently detected (5.8%) compound among seven oxygenates analyzed (median detected concentration 0.1 μg/l). At aquifer depths used for public supply, hydrocarbons and MTBE rarely co‐occur and are generally related to different variables; in shallower groundwater, co‐occurrence is more frequent and there are similar relations to the density or proximity of potential sources. Benzene concentrations are most strongly correlated with reducing conditions, regardless of groundwater age and depth. Multiple lines of evidence indicate that benzene and other hydrocarbons detected in old, deep, and/or brackish groundwater result from geogenic sources of oil and gas. However, in recently recharged (since ~1950), generally shallower groundwater, higher concentrations and detection frequencies of benzene and hydrocarbons were associated with a greater proportion of commercial land use surrounding the well, likely reflecting effects of anthropogenic sources, particularly in combination with reducing conditions.     

联合基于野外的代谢组学和化学分析手段筛选优先关注新兴污染物：在五大湖流域的案例研究

由于毒性评估项目很难与日渐增长的需要测试的污染物保持同步,所以较难将关注点集中在影响水生生态系统的最为生物相关的污染物上。由于评估潜在毒性污染物所造成的生物影响已被证明是有效的,内生性代谢物的研究（代谢组学）对于剔除那些较低可能造成生物影响的污染物或许有一定帮助,从而找出生物重要性最高的污染物。本研究在北美五大湖流域的18个地点针对置于笼中的黑头软口鲦（Pimephales promelas）进行实验。我们测定了水体温度和水样中的污染物浓度（目标污染物132种,检出86种）,并使用1H-NMR谱测量了肝极性提取物中的内生性代谢物。利用偏最小二乘法回归来比对内生性代谢物的相对丰度与污染物浓度和环境温度。结果表明内生性极性代谢物的指标与最多49种污染物存在共同变化。因此我们认为至多52%的检出污染物与内生性代谢物变化的共同变化不显著,表明这些污染物很可能不会在这些地点造成可以检测到的影响。这是通过缩短对于实验地点有着潜在影响的污染物列表从而扫描出检出污染物生物相关性的第一步。类似的信息有助于风险评估者区分不同污染物的重要性并将重点毒性测试放在最为生物相关的污染物上。
精选自Nicol Janecko, Lucie Pokludova, Jana Blahova, Zdenka Svobodova, Ivan Literak. Linking field-based metabolomics and chemical analyses to prioritize contaminants of emerging concern in the Great Lakes basin. Environmental Toxicology and Chemistry: Volume 35, Issue 10, pages 2493–2502, October 2016. DOI: 10.1002/etc.3409
详情请见http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/etc.3409/full
     

The importance of space, time, and stochasticity to the demography and management of Alliaria petiolata

As population modeling is increasingly called upon to guide policy and management, it is important that we understand not only the central tendencies of our study systems, but the consequences of their variation in space and time as well. The invasive plant Alliaria petiolata (garlic mustard) is actively managed in the United States and is the focus of a developing biological control program. Two weevils (Coleoptera: Curculionidae: Ceutorhynchus) that reduce fecundity (C. alliariae) and rosette survival plus fecundity (C. scrobicollis) are under consideration for release pending host specificity testing. We used a demographic modeling approach to (1) quantify variability in A. petiolata growth and vital rates and (2) assess the potential for single- or multiple-agent biocontrol to suppress growth of 12 A. petiolata populations in Illinois and Michigan studied over three plant generations. We used perturbation analyses and simulation models with stochastic environments to estimate stochastic growth rates (lambda(S)) and predict the probability of successful management using either a single biocontrol agent or two agent species together. Not all populations exhibited invasive dynamics. Estimates of lambda(S) ranged from 0.78 to 2.21 across sites, while annual, deterministic growth (lambda) varied up to sevenfold within individual sites. Given our knowledge of the biocontrol agents, this analysis suggests that C. scrobicollis alone may control A. petiolata at up to 63% of our study sites where lambda >1, with the combination of both agents predicted to succeed at 88% of sites. Across sites and years, the elasticity rankings were dependent on lambda. Reductions of rosette survival, fecundity, or germination of new seeds are predicted to cause the greatest reduction of lambda in growing populations. In declining populations, transitions affecting seed bank survival have the greatest effect on lambda. This contrasts with past analyses that varied parameters individually in an otherwise constant matrix, which may yield unrealistic predictions by decoupling natural parameter covariances. Overall, comparisons of stochastic and deterministic growth rates illustrate how analyses of individual populations or years could misguide management or fail to characterize complex traits such as invasiveness that emerge as attributes of populations rather than species.     

Incorporating behaviour into simple models of dispersal using the biological control agent Dicyphus hesperus

We explored the utility of incorporating easily measured, biologically realistic movement rules into simple models of dispersal. We depart from traditional random walk models by designing an individual-based simulation model where we decompose animal movement into three separate processes: emigration, between-patch movement, and immigration behaviour. These processes were quantified using experiments on the omnivorous insect Dicyphus hesperus moving through a tomato greenhouse. We compare the predictions of the individual-based model, along with a series of biased random walk models, against an independent experimental release of D. hesperus. We find that in this system, the short-term dispersal of these insects is described well by our individual-based model, but can also be described by a 2D grid-based biased random walk model when mortality is accounted for.     

Ontogeny of early diving and foraging behavior of northern fur seal (Callorhinus ursinus) pups from Bering Island,Russia

The ontogeny of diving and foraging behavior of northern fur seal pups from a stable population on Bering Island, Russia, was recorded with animal-borne instruments during their first few months at sea, a critical period during their first year at sea. Thirty-five pups were instrumented with satellite-linked time-depth recorders and stomach temperature pills. Diving occurred predominantly at night with deeper and longer dives as the pups matured. Mean dive depths were correlated with lunar illumination, whereas mean dive durations were also correlated with time of day and sex. Foraging success did not differ between sexes, and there was no relationship between meal size (as indicated by feeding event duration and minimum stomach temperature) and lunar illumination fraction or maximum foraging depth. Although most pups were able to successfully forage within 3 days of starting their migration, the number of feeding events recorded each day remained low (mean 1.6 events day^?1). There was no indication of an appreciable increase in meal size after the first 2 weeks of the migration despite an increase in dive frequency and depth. The results are consistent with observations that pups do not gain mass during their first year and emphasize the risk of starvation from infrequent foraging in cold water.     

Non-indigenous macroalga hosts different epiphytic assemblages to conspecific natives in southeast Australia

Codium fragile ssp. tomentosoides is one of the five most invasive macroalgae worldwide. We compared epiphytic assemblages between native (ssp. tasmanicum and ssp. novae-zelandiae combined) and non-indigenous (ssp. tomentosoides) subspecies of Codium fragile on three rocky intertidal shores in southeast Australia. Twelve species of epiphytes covered up to 20% of the surface of both native and non-indigenous Codium subspecies, but none were unique to either subspecies. For C. fragile subspecies, epiphytic cover declined from the lower (older) parts of the thallus to the branch tips. The abundance and species composition of epiphytes differed significantly between native and non-indigenous C. fragile, but differences varied among rocky shores. Results demonstrate that non-indigenous C. fragile does not play a functionally similar role to closely related native Codium subspecies. Spatial differences in epiphytic assemblages between Codium subspecies among rocky shores demonstrate that effects of non-indigenous species may be strongly location specific. Thus, our study emphasises the need to investigate variation in the effects of invaders across the regional landscape.     

Fertilization in a suite of coastal marine invertebrates from SE Australia is robust to near-future ocean warming and acidification

Climate change driven ocean acidification and hypercapnia may have a negative impact on fertilization in marine organisms because of the narcotic effect these stressors exert on sperm. In contrast, warmer, less viscous water may have a positive influence on sperm swimming speed and so ocean warming may enhance fertilization. To address questions on future vulnerabilities we examined the interactive effects of near-future ocean warming and ocean acidification/hypercapnia on fertilization in intertidal and shallow subtidal echinoids (Heliocidaris erythrogramma, H. tuberculata, Tripneustes gratilla, Centrostephanus rodgersii), an asteroid (Patiriella regularis) and an abalone (Haliotis coccoradiata). Batches of eggs from multiple females were fertilized by sperm from multiple males in all combinations of three temperature and three \textpH/P_\textCO2 {\text{pH}}/P_{{{\text{CO}}_{2} }} treatments. Experiments were placed in the setting of projected near-future conditions for southeast Australia, an ocean change hot spot. There was no significant effect of warming and acidification on the percentage of fertilization. These results indicate that fertilization in these species is robust to temperature and \textpH/P_\textCO2 {\text{pH}}/P_{{{\text{CO}}_{2} }} fluctuation. This may reflect adaptation to the marked fluctuation in temperature and pH that characterises their shallow water coastal habitats. Efforts to identify potential impacts of ocean change to the life histories of coastal marine invertebrates are best to focus on more vulnerable embryonic and larval stages because of their long time in the water column where seawater chemistry and temperature have a major impact on development.