A COMPUTER SIMULATION PROGRAM FOR OPTIMIZING CONJUNCTIVE OPERATION OF DESALTING PLANTS1

ABSTRACT .Desalting plants can provide a means of firming up erratic natural supplies when properly operated in conjunction with existing water supply reservoir systems. Since the natural inflow is variable, the choice of when to run the desalting plant is difficult. If the plant is turned on too late, a shortage may result; or if the plant runs too long, costly water may be wasted. A computer program is described that can help water planners find an optimal operating rule, i.e., a policy that tells when to turn the plant on and off to meet a given demand. Criteria for defining the firm water yield of the system (with and without desalting) are first defined. The logic of the program is then described. The program, written in FORTRAN IV, successively simulates operation of the given size reservoir-desalting plant system under control of various operating rules and selects the optimal rule as the one which produces the required firm water yield at the least unit cost. The optimal plant size and the staging of construction can also be studied by making a series of computations. Applications of the Operating Rule Program to water systems in California, Utah and New York are described. The studies show that, compared with base load operation, substantial savings are possible if optimum intermittent conjunctive operation of the desalting plant is followed.     

Early Days of Food and Environmental Virology

In July 1962, the author joined the Food Research Institute (FRI), then at the University of Chicago, to become its food virologist. There was a limited record of waterborne viral disease outbreaks at the time; recorded data on foodborne outbreaks were fewer still. Laboratory environmental (water and wastewater) virology was in its infancy, and food virology was in gestation. Detection of viruses was most often attempted by inoculation of primary primate cell cultures, with observation for plaque formation or cytopathic effects. Focus was initially on enteroviruses and reoviruses. Environmental and food samples had to be liquefied if not already in liquid form; clarified to remove solids, bacteria, and fungi; and concentrated to a volume that could be tested in cell culture. Cytotoxicity was also a concern. Studies at the FRI and some other laboratories addressed all of these challenges. The FRI group was the World Health Organization’s Collaborating Center for Food Virology for many years. Other topics studied were virus inactivation as functions of temperature, time, matrix, disinfectants, and microbial action; peroral and ex-vivo infectivity; and the suitability of various virus surrogates for environmental monitoring and inactivation experiments. Detection of noroviruses and hepatitis A virus required molecular methods, most often RT-PCR. When it was found that inactivated virus often gave the same RT-PCR signal as that of infectious virus, sample treatments were sought, which would prevent false-positive test results. Many laboratories around the world have taken up food and environmental virology since 1962, with the result that a dedicated journal has been launched.     

Capsid and Infectivity in Virus Detection

The spectacular achievements and elegance of viral RNA analyses have somewhat obscured the importance of the capsid in transmission of viruses via food and water. The capsid’s essential roles are protection of the RNA when the virion is outside the host cell and initiation of infection when the virion contacts a receptor on an appropriate host cell. Capsids of environmentally transmitted viruses are phenomenally durable. Fortuitous properties of the capsid include antigenicity, isoelectric point(s), sometimes hemagglutination, and perhaps others. These can potentially be used to characterize capsid changes that cause or accompany loss of viral infectivity and may be valuable in distinguishing native from inactivated virus when molecular detection methods are used.     

Modeling the contribution of speeding and impaired driving to insurance claim counts and costs when contributing factors are unknown

PROBLEM: There are no specific indicators for distinguishing insurance claims related to speeding and impaired driving in the information warehouse at the Insurance Corporation of British Columbia. Contributing factors are only recorded for that part of the claim data that is also reported by the police. Most published statistics on crashes that are related to alcohol or speeding are based on police-reported data, but this represents only a fraction of all incidents. METHOD: This paper proposes surrogate models to estimate the counts and the average costs associated with speeding and impaired driving to insurance claims when contributing factors are unknown. Using police-reported data, classification rules and logistic regression models are developed to form such estimates. One approach applies classification rules to categorize insurance claims into those related to speeding, impaired driving, and other factors. The counts and the costs of insurance claims for each of these strata and overall are then estimated. A second method models the probability that an insurance claim is related to speeding or impaired driving using logistic regression and uses this to estimate the overall counts and the average costs of the claims. The two methods are compared and evaluated using simulation studies. RESULTS: The logistic regression model was found to be superior to the classification model for predicting insurance claim counts by category, but less efficient at predicting average claim costs. IMPACT: Having estimates of counts and costs of insurance claims related to impaired driving or speeding for all reported crash events provides a more accurate basis for policy-makers to plan changes and benefits of road safety programs.     

Antipredator responses of koomal (Trichosurus vulpecula hypoleucus) against introduced and native predators

Antipredator behavior studies generally assess prey responses to single predator species although most real systems contain multiple species. In multi-predator environments prey ideally use antipredator responses that are effective against all predator species, although responses may only be effective against one predator and counterproductive for another. Multi-predator systems may also include introduced predators that the prey did not co-evolve with, so the prey may either fail to recognize their threat (level 1 naiveté), use ineffective responses (level 2 naiveté) or succumb to their superior hunting ability (level 3 naiveté). We analyzed microhabitat selection of an Australian marsupial (koomal, Trichosurus vulpecula hypoleucus) when faced with spatiotemporal differences in the activity/density levels of one native (chuditch, Dasyurus geoffroii) and two introduced predators (red fox, Vulpes vulpes; feral cat, Felis catus). From this, we inferred whether koomal recognized introduced predators as a threat, and whether they minimized predation risk by either staying close to trees and/or using open or dense microhabitats. Koomal remained close to escape trees regardless of the predator species present, or activity/density levels, suggesting koomal employ this behavior as a first line of defense. Koomal shifted to dense cover only under high risk scenarios (i.e., with multiple predator species present at high densities). When predation risk was low, koomal used open microhabitats, which likely provided benefits not associated with predator avoidance. Koomal did not exhibit level 1 naiveté, although further studies are required to determine if they exhibit higher levels of naiveté (2–3) against foxes and cats.     

Population-level compensation impedes biological control of an invasive forb and indirect release of a native grass

The intentional introduction of specialist insect herbivores for biological control of exotic weeds provides ideal but understudied systems for evaluating important ecological concepts related to top-down control, plant compensatory responses, indirect effects, and the influence of environmental context on these processes. Centaurea stoebe (spotted knapweed) is a notorious rangeland weed that exhibited regional declines in the early 2000s, attributed to drought by some and to successful biocontrol by others. We initiated an experiment to quantify the effects of the biocontrol agent, Cyphocleonus achates, on Ce. stoebe and its interaction with a dominant native grass competitor, Pseudoroegneria spicata, under contrasting precipitation conditions. Plots containing monocultures of each plant species or equal mixtures of the two received factorial combinations of Cy. achates herbivory (exclusion or addition) and precipitation (May-June drought or "normal," defined by the 50-year average) for three years. Cy. achates herbivory reduced survival of adult Ce. stoebe plants by 9% overall, but this effect was stronger under normal precipitation compared to drought conditions, and stronger in mixed-species plots compared to monocultures. Herbivory had no effect on Ce. stoebe per capita seed production or on recruitment of seedlings or juveniles. In normal-precipitation plots of mixed composition, greater adult mortality due to Cy. achates herbivory resulted in increased recruitment of new adult Ce. stoebe. Due to this compensatory response to adult mortality, final Ce. stoebe densities did not differ between herbivory treatments regardless of context. Experimental drought reduced adult Ce. stoebe survival in mixed-species plots but did not impede recruitment of new adults or reduce final Ce. stoebe densities, perhaps due to the limited duration of the treatment. Ce. stoebe strongly depressed P. spicata reproduction and recruitment, but these impacts were not substantively alleviated by herbivory on Ce. stoebe. Population-level compensation by dominant plants may be an important factor inhibiting top-down effects in herbivore-driven and predator-driven cascades.     

Relationships between hope,optimism, and conservation engagement

The loss and degradation of nature can lead to hopelessness and despair, which may undermine engagement in conservation actions. Emerging movements, such as that behind the organization Conservation Optimism, aim to avert potential despair of those involved in conservation. Some argue that fostering positive states, such as hope or optimism, can motivate engagement and action; however, others question whether fostering hope or optimism may inadvertently undermine perceived gravity of conservation challenges. We examined this issue by quantifying dispositional hope and optimism with a representative sample of Australians (n = 4285) and assessing their relationship with indicators of conservation engagement. We used the Great Barrier Reef (GBR) in Australia as a case study. We asked participants what they could do to help the GBR, then classified their responses into 2 outcome variables: identifying climate actions (i.e., actions that tackle the main threat to the reef) and identifying plastic actions (i.e., actions that are popular among community members). We also quantified likelihood of performing these actions and appraisals of both threats and actions. One dimension of hope, hope pathways (defined by Snyder's hope theory as knowing different ways to act), was associated with greater capacity to identify climate-related behaviors (odds ratio [OR] = 1.44) and plastic reduction behaviors (OR = 1.22) and greater likelihood of adopting climate-related actions (β = 0.20). Optimism was associated with recognition of plastic reduction behaviors only (OR = 1.22). Neither hope nor optimism undermined appraisal of conservation threats. The effects of optimism were mediated by reduced action futility, and effects of hope pathways were mediated by stronger perceptions of threats to the reef (threat appraisal) and confidence in performing useful actions (coping appraisal). Our findings suggest that dispositional hope can strengthen, rather than undermine, appraisal of conservation challenges and solutions and thereby increase conservation engagement.     

Characterization of phosphorus species in biosolids and manures using XANES spectroscopy

Identification of the chemical P species in biosolids or manures will improve our understanding of the long-term potential for P loss when these materials are land applied. The objectives of this study were to determine the P species in dairy manures, poultry litters, and biosolids using X-ray absorption near-edge structure (XANES) spectroscopy and to determine if chemical fractionation techniques can provide useful information when interpreted based on the results of more definitive P speciation studies. Our XANES fitting results indicated that the predominant forms of P in organic P sources included hydroxylapatite, PO(4) sorbed to Al hydroxides, and phytic acid in lime-stabilized biosolids and manures; hydroxylapatite, PO(4) sorbed on ferrihydrite, and phytic acid in lime- and Fe-treated biosolids; and PO(4) sorbed on ferrihydrite, hydroxylapatite, beta-tricalcium phosphate (beta-TCP), and often PO(4) sorbed to Al hydroxides in Fe-treated and digested biosolids. Strong relationships existed between the proportions of XANES PO(4) sorbed to Al hydroxides and NH(4)Cl- + NH(4)F-extractable P, XANES PO(4) sorbed to ferrihydrite + phytic acid and NaOH-extractable P, and XANES hydroxylapatite + beta-TCP and dithionite-citrate-bicarbonate (DCB)- + H(2)SO(4)-extractable P (r(2) = 0.67 [P = 0.01], 0.78 [P = 0.01], and 0.89 [P = 0.001], respectively). Our XANES fitting results can be used to make predictions about long-term solubility of P when biosolids and manures are land applied. Fractionation techniques indicate that there are differences in the forms of P in these materials but should be interpreted based on P speciation data obtained using more advanced analytical tools.     

Entrepreneurial motivation: A review of the literature and an agenda for future research

Given the substantial impact that new ventures have on the global economy, understanding what motivates entrepreneurs is of both practical and theoretical importance. Although research on the nature, causes, and consequences of entrepreneurial motivation has grown rapidly, it has evolved in distinct theoretical silos that tend to isolate motives based on the phase of business development (e.g., initiation, growth, and exit) rather than acknowledge that individuals often traverse all these phases and experience multiple types of motivation throughout their entrepreneurial journey. To advance the study of motivation in the fields of entrepreneurship and organizational behavior and provide a means through which these advancements can contribute to our understanding of how motivation drives the start-up, growth, and exiting of businesses, we organize and review the extant literature on entrepreneurial motives based on the phases of the new venture process. In doing so, this article develops a roadmap of the current state of entrepreneurial motivation research and its nomological network and provides suggestions to guide future research in extending our understanding of motivation in the entrepreneurship domain as well as in traditional organizational settings.