Biophysical suitability,economic pressure and land-cover change: a global probabilistic approach and insights for REDD+

There has been a concerted effort by the international scientific community to understand the multiple causes and patterns of land-cover change to support sustainable land management. Here, we examined biophysical suitability, and a novel integrated index of “Economic Pressure on Land” (EPL) to explain land cover in the year 2000, and estimated the likelihood of future land-cover change through 2050, including protected area effectiveness. Biophysical suitability and EPL explained almost half of the global pattern of land cover (R ² = 0.45), increasing to almost two-thirds in areas where a long-term equilibrium is likely to have been reached (e.g. R ² = 0.64 in Europe). We identify a high likelihood of future land-cover change in vast areas with relatively lower current and past deforestation (e.g. the Congo Basin). Further, we simulated emissions arising from a “business as usual” and two reducing emissions from deforestation and forest degradation (REDD) scenarios by incorporating data on biomass carbon. As our model incorporates all biome types, it highlights a crucial aspect of the ongoing REDD + debate: if restricted to forests, “cross-biome leakage” would severely reduce REDD + effectiveness for climate change mitigation. If forests were protected from deforestation yet without measures to tackle the drivers of land-cover change, REDD + would only reduce 30 % of total emissions from land-cover change. Fifty-five percent of emissions reductions from forests would be compensated by increased emissions in other biomes. These results suggest that, although REDD + remains a very promising mitigation tool, implementation of complementary measures to reduce land demand is necessary to prevent this leakage.     

The SSC cycle: a PDCA approach to address site-specific characteristics in a continuous shallow water quality monitoring project

In any water quality-monitoring project there are several critical success factors that must be adequately addressed in order to ensure the implementation and realization of the monitoring objectives. Site selection is one of these critical success factors. The monitoring sites must be selected to comply with the monitoring and data quality objectives. In the real world, ideal monitoring setting conditions are difficult to achieve, and compromises must be made in order to locate the monitoring stations that best represent the environment to be monitored. Site-specific characteristics are all the environmental, logistical and management factors particular to the monitoring site, that could influence the fulfilment of the monitoring and data quality objectives. Therefore, during the site selection process, it is essential to properly consider and evaluate these site-specific characteristics. The SSC cycle was developed with this goal in mind, to assist the monitoring team to systematically address site-specific characteristics. The cycle is a methodology to organize the site-specific characteristics in different categories, and to ensure a comprehensive overview of these characteristics throughout the project life cycle.     

Relative Phytoplankton growth responses to physically and chemically dispersed South Louisiana sweet crude oil

We conducted controlled laboratory exposure experiments to assess the toxic effects of water-accommodated fractions (WAFs) of South Louisiana sweet crude oil on five phytoplankton species isolated from the Gulf of Mexico. Experiments were conducted with individual and combinations of the five phytoplankton species to determine growth inhibitions to eight total petroleum hydrocarbon (TPH) equivalent concentrations ranging from 461 to 7,205 ppb. The composition and concentration of crude oil were altered by physical and chemical processes and used to help evaluate crude oil toxicity. The impact of crude oil exposure on phytoplankton growth varied with the concentration of crude oil, species of microalgae, and their community composition. At a concentration of TPH <?1,200 ppb, dinoflagellate species showed significantly better tolerance, while diatom species showed a higher tolerance to crude oil at higher concentrations of TPH. For both groups, the larger species were more tolerant to crude oil than smaller ones. The toxicity potential of crude oil seems to be strongly influenced by the concentration of polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs). The addition of the dispersant, Corexit® EC9500A, increased the amount of crude oil up to 50-fold in the water column, while the physical enhancement (vigorous mixing of water column) did not significantly increase the amount of TPH concentration in the water column. The species response to crude oil was also examined in the five-species community. Each phytoplankton species showed considerably less tolerance to crude oil in the five-species community compared to their individual responses. This study provides baseline information about individual phytoplankton responses to crude oil and dispersed crude oil for subsequent research efforts seeking to understand the impacts of oil on the phytoplankton in the bigger picture.     

The Bayesian conditional independence model for measurement error: applications in ecology

The measurement error model is a well established statistical method for regression problems in medical sciences, although rarely used in ecological studies. While the situations in which it is appropriate may be less common in ecology, there are instances in which there may be benefits in its use for prediction and estimation of parameters of interest. We have chosen to explore this topic using a conditional independence model in a Bayesian framework using a Gibbs sampler, as this gives a great deal of flexibility, allowing us to analyse a number of different models without losing generality. Using simulations and two examples, we show how the conditional independence model can be used in ecology, and when it is appropriate.     

Spatially stratified sampling using auxiliary information for geostatistical mapping

This paper presents a method of spatial sampling based on stratification by Local Moran’s I _i calculated using auxiliary information. The sampling technique is compared to other design-based approaches including simple random sampling, systematic sampling on a regular grid, conditional Latin Hypercube sampling and stratified sampling based on auxiliary information, and is illustrated using two different spatial data sets. Each of the samples for the two data sets is interpolated using regression kriging to form a geostatistical map for their respective areas. The proposed technique is shown to be competitive in reproducing specific areas of interest with high accuracy.     

PACIFIC NORTHWEST REGIONAL ASSESSMENT: THE IMPACTS OF CLIMATE VARIABILITY AND CLIMATE CHANGE ON THE WATER RESOURCES OF THE COLUMBIA RIVER BASIN1

ABSTRACT: The Pacific Northwest (PNW) regional assessment is an integrated examination of the consequences of natural climate variability and projected future climate change for the natural and human systems of the region. The assessment currently focuses on four sectors: hydrology/water resources, forests and forestry, aquatic ecosystems, and coastal activities. The assessment begins by identifying and elucidating the natural patterns of climate vanability in the PNW on interannual to decadal timescales. The pathways through which these climate variations are manifested and the resultant impacts on the natural and human systems of the region are investigated. Knowledge of these pathways allows an analysis of the potential impacts of future climate change, as defined by IPCC climate change scenarios. In this paper, we examine the sensitivity, adaptability and vulnerability of hydrology and water resources to climate variability and change. We focus on the Columbia River Basin, which covers approximately 75 percent of the PNW and is the basis for the dominant water resources system of the PNW. The water resources system of the Columbia River is sensitive to climate variability, especially with respect to drought. Management inertia and the lack of a centralized authority coordinating all uses of the resource impede adaptability to drought and optimization of water distribution. Climate change projections suggest exacerbated conditions of conflict between users as a result of low summertime streamfiow conditions. An understanding of the patterns and consequences of regional climate variability is crucial to developing an adequate response to future changes in climate.     

Does one good turn deserve another? coworker influences on employee citizenship

Social information processing and social learning theories were utilized to hypothesize that an employee's organizational citizenship behavior (OCB) is influenced by the collective OCB in one's workgroup. An aggregate measure of OCB was constructed based upon Podsakoff, MacKenzie, and Fetter's (1993) measures of Organ's (1988) typology of OCB, and the study was replicated using both supervisor and employee‐provided ratings of OCB. The sample for this study included 566 employees (488 for the supervisor‐rated analysis) from 56 workgroups in a manufacturing organization. The mean level of OCB for other members of one's workgroup explained significant variance in individual levels of OCB. We also found that this effect is moderated by the consistency of the display of the OCB within the workgroup. The consistency of OCB across coworkers was associated with more OCB by individuals and this effect was replicated across both supervisor and employee ratings. Explanations and uses for our findings are discussed. Copyright © 2003 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

A laboratory study of the persistence of carbofuran and its 3‐hydroxy‐ and 3 keto‐metabolites in sterile and natural mineral and organic soils

Abstract

In a laboratory study, the persistence of carbofuran and its 3‐hydroxy‐ and 3‐keto‐metabolites was examined separately over 16 wk in sterile and natural organic (muck) and mineral (loam) soils. Carbofuran was relatively persistent in sterile soils; at 8 wk 77% remained in the sterile muck and about 50% remained in the sterile loam. In the natural muck 25% of initial carbofuran remained at 8 wk whereas in the natural loam carbofuran had completely disappeared by that time. The 3‐ketocarbofuran was very short‐lived even in the sterile muck where only 50% remained at 1 wk. The 3‐hydroxycarbofuran degraded appreciably on zero day in the natural soils (with conversion to 3‐ketocarbofuran) and about 90% had disappeared in 1 wk. A more detailed study of the persistence of 3‐hydroxycarbofuran in the natural soils showed complete disappearance in 2 days in loam and in 3 days in muck. The 3‐ketocarbofuran produced from the 3‐hydroxy‐carbofuran reached a maximum concentration in 1 day and then disappeared within 4 days in loam and about 1 wk in muck.     

An investigation of occupational subgroups with respect to patient safety culture

There are varying views about the consistency of safety culture across a given organisation or industrial sector: some view it as homogeneous, whereas others have suggested the presence of sub-cultures that vary according to the work group or worksite. This paper reports on a study in which job characteristics and safety climate ratings from a sample of British community pharmacists (N = 860) were subjected to a cluster analysis, with the aim of identifying whether discrete groups can be identified on the basis of these ratings. A four-cluster solution was obtained from the analysis. Examination of quantitative and qualitative data from each cluster led to them being identified as: (i) the disenfranchising pharmacy; (ii) the perilous pharmacy; (iii) the safety-focused pharmacy; (iv) the challenging pharmacy. On the basis of the data obtained, safety culture appears to have both characteristics generic to all community pharmacies and characteristics specific to each cluster, with a number of social and organisational factors influencing the culture in any one setting. Implications for the modelling and assessment of safety culture are discussed.     

The degradation of parathion and DDT in aqueous systems containing organic additives

Abstract

Laboratory studies were conducted to investigate some of the factors influencing pesticide degradation in‐ aqueous systems. Parathion added to natural water in ethanol, acetone or without organic solvent, was completely degraded within 2 wk. While most of the parathion was reduced to amino‐parathion when added in ethanol, no amino‐parathion was detected in the presence of acetone or when no solvent was added, suggesting that in the latter two cases the insecticide was aerobically degraded to other metabolites. No paraoxon was detected. When ethanol concentration was increased from 1% to 2 and 4%, the rate of parathion degradation was inversely related to the ethanol concentration. In the presence of glucose as a carbon source, approximately 50% of the parathion was reduced to aminoparathion. DDT degradation in natural water was more rapid when it was added in ethanol than when added in acetone. The only DDT metabolite detected was TDE, with about 36% conversion in presence of ethanol, and 20% when the DDT was added in acetone.