Coping with variability and change: Floods and droughts

Floods and droughts are natural phenomena for which the risks of occurrence are likely to continue to grow. Increasing levels of exposure and insufficient adaptive capacity are among the factors responsible for the rising vulnerability. The former is conditioned by anthropopressure (e.g., economic development of flood–prone areas) and adverse effects of climate change; scenarios for future climates indicate the possibility of amplified water–related extremes. This article presents the current situation of coping with extreme hydrological events within the pressure–state–response framework. Among promising response strategies, the role of forecast and warning, and of watershed management are reviewed. Sample success stories and lessons learnt related to hydrological extremes are given and policy implications discussed.     

PARTIAL DEFORESTATION AND SHORT-TERM AUTOCHTHONOUS ENERGY INPUT TO A SMALL NEW ENGLAND STREAM1

ABSTRACT: Autochthonous energy input, in the form of periphyton production and growth, was studied before and after partial logging of the watershed surrounding School Brook, a small tributary of the Aroostook River, Maine. Due to infection by the spruce budworm (Chiristoneura fumiferana), the buffer strip on one bank of the stream was logged and only limited riparian vegetation was left. Though impacts in subsequent years are unknown, the effect of the logging on the periphyton community was insignificant during the nine months following cutting, seemingly due to several factors. Because only 5 percent of the canopy was actually removed, the intensity of available light changed little. Small springs in the area helped maintain a stable thermal regime, and only a small portion of the low gradient watershed was actually logged. Consequently, the nutrients reaching the stream did not change. The relatively low concentrations of nitrates (< 0.3 mg/l) and phosphates (< 10 μg/l), both before and in the first nine months after logging, reflect the limited autochthonous input, thereby reducing the effect of this limited cutting on the stream community.     

The Pending Extinction of the Uncompahgre Fritillary Butterfly

Previous mark-recapture studies and population size estimates indicated that in the 1980s populations of the endangered Uncompahgre fritillary ( Boloria acrocnema ) declined precipitously, apparently leading to extirpation at its type locality. This locality and a nearby second site, both high in the San Juan Mountains of southwestern Colorado, constitute the total known range of B. acrocnema . A survey of 20 presumptive allozyme loci from one B. acrocnema population and seven populations of the closely related B. improba , sampled along the Rocky Mountain cordillera from the Yukon Territory, Canada, to the Wind River Range of Wyoming, revealed that B. acrocnema populations are less variable genetically than are B. improba populations in the northern part of that species' North American range. Genetic variability was also assayed at 18 presumptive allozyme loci in populations of Boloria titania, which were sampled from five of the same locations for comparison with the B. improba-B. acrocnema clade. Low estimates of heterozygosity indicate that genetic and demographic factors preceded by historic human disturbance are causing the decline of B. acrocnema . In addition, persistent drought conditions in southwestern Colorado throughout the 1980s probably contributed to the population declines. Conservation recommendations include strict enforcement of the ban against collecting pursuant to the Endangered Species Act, careful monitoring of known B. acrocnema sites, and possible translocations. Extreme measures beyond these will be costly and may be inappropriate for this relict species, which has an unknown capacity to persist in the face of local weather fluctuations and predicted regional warming trends.     

Assessing the toxic threat of selenium to fish and aquatic birds

A procedure is given for evaluating the toxic threat of selenium to fish and wildlife. Toxic threat is expressed as hazard, and is based on the potential for food-chain bioaccumulation and reproductive impairment in fish and aquatic birds, which are the most sensitive biological responses for estimating ecosystem-level impacts of selenium contamination. Five degrees of hazard are possible depending on the expected environmental concentrations of selenium, exposure of fish and aquatic birds to toxic concentrations, and resultant potential for reproductive impairment. The degree of hazard is given a numerical score: 5 = high hazard, 4 = moderate hazard, 3 = low hazard, 2 = minimal hazard, and 1 = no identifiable hazard. A separate hazard score is given to each of five ecosystem components; water, sediments, benthic macroinvertebrates, fish eggs, and aquatic bird eggs. A final hazard characterization is determined by adding individual scores and comparing the total to the following evaluation criteria: 5 = no hazard, 6–8 = minimal hazard, 9–11 = low hazard, 12–15 = moderate hazard, 16–25 = high hazard. An example is given to illustrate how the procedure is applied to selenium data from a typical contaminant monitoring program.     

水质管理可转让排放许可证系统中非点源的逐步采用:设定许可证价格

综合市场设计是针对可转让排放许可证系统的一项建议,该系统特别包括了农业非点源排放,并且强调财产权和交易成本问题.实施综合市场计划的第一步是要对流域地区的缓解措施供应曲线进行估计.这种估计是通过将成本和所选择的最好管理办法的损失模拟减少值相结合进行的,之后利用该信息估计缓解供应曲线,这反过来又可用于设定许可证价格.选择瑞典南部伦讷河流域作为该项工作的试验研究区.用于减少农田营养损失的现有措施的费用(间种和春种)来自由瑞典农业委员会资助的现有项目.对该地区的7个子流域和3种土壤类型,利用持留估计方法计算了这些措施的一组供应曲线.虽然现有信息足以计算部分供应曲线并且可以用于设定许可证价格,但为了区分各站点具体的减少费用,应包括其它的措施并增加变量数.     

Screening maternal serum alpha-fetoprotein levels and human parvovirus antibodies

The association between gestational infection with human parvovirus (B19) and fetal loss has increased interest in this virus and demand for diagnostic testing. However, serological assays for B19 are not yet widely available. Maternal serum alpha-fetoprotein (MSAFP) testing is commonly used during the second trimester to screen for various fetal defects. We attempted to determine whether an elevated level of MSAFP would be an appropriate indication for B19-specific tests. Over a 26-month period, MSAFP tests were performed at Michigan State University for 21 392 women. Sera remaining after that testing were stored frozen. Of these, 22 case samples—from women with MSAFP levels greater than 3·0 multiples of the median (MOM) and pregnancies that ended in fetal loss—and 44 matched control samples—from women with MSAFP levels greater than 0·4 and less than 2·2 MOM and live births at term—were tested for B19 antibodies. None of the 66 samples was IgM positive, while 33 (50 per cent) were IgG positive. The presence of IgG was not significantly associated with case or control status (matched odds ratio=0·77, 95 per cent confidence interval 0·28–2·11). These findings are consistent with other studies indicating prior infection in approximately half of adults and suggest that elevated screening MSAFP levels, in the absence of other evidence of B19 infection, should not prompt B19-specific testing.