Optimum forage allocation through chance-constrained programming

Most resource allocation models developed to aid resource planning have been deterministic; that is, the ecosystem and economic variables are assumed to be known with certainty. It is these elements that present problems concerning risk and uncertainty involved in decision making. The objective of this study is to present a mathematical approach for optimizing resource allocation in management situations in which random events occur. This particular technique of decision analysis is chance-constrained programming. The model makes possible the investigation of risk and uncertainty associated with resource management decision making. Range decision-makers must often stock their range before they are sure of the available forage; thus, the amount of available forage is a random element with which managers must contend. The chance-constrained approach to decision making may be used when such random events occur and when it is not possible to plan exactly for future events. Two parameters are used to adjust the mean value of constraints; these are the standard deviation of the constraint value (S_bi) and the probability term which is specified by the manager (K_αi). The mean values are adjusted by the product K_αiS_bi. In the study reported here, a K_αi value of 0.57 gave results which appeared to have usefulness. The results indicate that the penalties a rancher must assume for over-estimating his carrying capacity are greater than the penalties for underestimating the carrying capacity. With the value of the standard deviation used in the example, numbers of livestock and the corresponding net revenues should be about 22% less than those indicated by average forage production. With greater variation in forage production, the reduction would be greater. By using these values, the chance-constrained approach can meaningfully incorporate random variables into a decision model.     

Estimating percentiles from composite environmental samples when all observations are nondetectable

Many environmental sampling problems involve some specified regulatory or contractual limit (RL). Often the interest is in estimating the percentile of the underlying contaminant concentration distribution corresponding to RL. The focus of this paper is on obtaining a point estimate and a lower confidence limit for that percentile when all observations are nondetectable, with the ith observation known to be less than some detection limit DLI, where DLi RL. Since composite samples are being considered, it is not unreasonable to assume an underlying normal distribution.     

A dynamic model for intertemporal allocation of old-growth forests in the Pacific Northwest

Across the globe, continued policy debates regarding the management of old-growth forests center around the difficult task of balancing economic and ecological considerations. Though the forests of the Pacific Northwest United States are among the most studied old-growth ecosystems, ecological and economic analyses have yielded public land management directives that remain controversial. Specifically, the recently adopted Northwest Forest Plan lacks explicit goals for maintaining intergenerational equity for the use of forest resources and the diversity of old-growth ecosystems. Unlike previous studies which rely on monetary quantification of costs and benefits, this study develops and applies a conceptual framework for evaluating socially optimal Pacific Northwest old-growth forest utilization strategies. Conditions for the optimal management of old-growth forests are derived using dynamic programming. The objective function synthesizes relevant biological and economic attributes of the old-growth allocation problem. Results in the form of extraction paths are compared given social pressure for consumptive and non-consumptive benefits, as well as different planning horizons, rates of social time preference, and environmental variance. Lengthening the planning horizon results in a vast divergence of optimal policies in the absence of discounting. Extraction rates appear to approach zero as the planning horizon approaches infinity. While higher rates of social time preference increase the rate of extraction, forest stocks remaining at the terminal time period equal levels remaining with a lower discount rate. Increasing environmental variance results in a higher level of stock remaining at the terminal time period. This analysis, while specific to the old-growth controversy of the Pacific Northwest, does provide general guidelines for addressing similar problems of multiple uses of natural areas, particularly where such uses are mutually incompatible, or where one use may be irreversibly destructive to another.     

Relevance of crowding effects in a coastal National Park in Germany: results from a case study on Hamburger Hallig

Coastal environments are popular sites for tourism and faced with an increasing recreational demand. Most of European coastal areas attract numerous visitors annually. In recreation research this management problem can be described in terms of carrying capacity which expresses the ability of a site or region to absorb recreational use without deterioration of natural resources and the quality of the visitor experience. As social aspects of recreation in Europe still have received little attention, the purpose of this study is to examine the applicability of the concept of social carrying capacity in a German coastal national park. The article addresses if the relationship between perceived visitor encounters, crowding perception and visitor characteristics is applicable by using data from an on-site survey (N?=?509) of visitors conducted on Hamburger Hallig, Germany. It examines whether effects of overcrowding are measurable on a popular daytrip destination with established approaches. Results demonstrate that visitors to Hamburger Hallig are characterised by a heterogeneous visitor composition of local residents and domestic tourists with different motivations and who mainly visited the area for hiking or cycling. Study findings show that valuation for reported encounters and perceived crowding differed substantially among origin of visitors and sampling dates. All in all, respondents report a high level of encounter with others and in contrast a very low level of perceived crowding.     

Characterising the landscape of state environmental review policies and procedures in the United States: a national assessment

Following the intent of the National Environmental Policy Act of 1969, many states have adopted policies and procedures directing state agencies and local government units to evaluate the potential environmental impacts of development projects prior to their undertaking. In contrast to a rich literature on federal requirements, current understanding of state environmental review is narrowly focused and outdated. This paper seeks to provide information on the landscape of state environmental review policy frameworks. The paper identifies 37 states with formal environmental review requirements through a document review of state statutes, administrative rules and agency-prepared materials, and confirms this finding through a survey of state administrators. A two-tier classification is used to distinguish states based on the approach taken to address environmental review needs and the scope and depth of relevant policies and procedures implemented. This paper also provides a discussion of policy and programme attributes that may contribute to effective practice, and of the potential for adopting relevant legislation in states where environmental review is currently lacking.     

Conversion of a Missouri River Dam and Reservoir to a Sustainable System: Sediment Management1

Abstract: A present and future challenge for water resources engineers is to extend the useful life of our dams and reservoirs. Ongoing reservoir sedimentation in impoundments must be addressed; sedimentation in many reservoirs already limits project benefits and effective project life. Sustainability requires that incoming sediment be moved downstream past the impounding dam. We use Lewis and Clark Lake, the most downstream of the six Missouri River main stem reservoirs, to demonstrate how a reservoir in advanced stages of its project life could be converted to a sustainable system with local benefits exceeding costs by a factor of 1.5. Full consideration of benefits would further enhance project justification. The proposed strategy involves four phases that will take about 50 years to complete. Cost estimates for this potential project range from the quantitative to the plausible, but it is clear that the results justify a full engineering, environmental, and economic study of this model project. If implemented, the project will create scientific knowledge and develop technologies useful for achieving sustainability at many other reservoirs in the Mississippi River basin and beyond.     

Using fuzzy set theory to address the uncertainty of susceptibility to drought

This paper presents the technical aspects of a new methodology for assessing the susceptibility of society to drought. The methodology consists of a combination of inference modelling and fuzzy logic applications. Four steps are followed: (1) model input variables are selected—these variables reflect the main factors influencing susceptibility in a social group, population or region, (2) fuzzification—the uncertainties of the input variables are made explicit by representing them as ‘fuzzy membership functions’, (3) inference modelling—the input variables are used to construct a model made up of linguistic rules, and (4) defuzzification—results from the model in linguistic form are translated into numerical form, also through the use of fuzzy membership functions. The disadvantages and advantages of this methodology became apparent when it was applied to the assessment of susceptibility from three disciplinary perspectives: Disadvantages include the difficulty in validating results and the subjectivity involved with specifying fuzzy membership functions and the rules of the inference model. Advantages of the methodology are its transparency, because all model assumptions have to be made explicit in the form of inference rules; its flexibility, in that informal and expert knowledge can be incorporated through ‘fuzzy membership functions’ and through the rules in the inference model; and its versatility, since numerical data can be converted to linguistic statements and vice versa through the procedures of ‘fuzzification’ and ‘defuzzification’.