Estimating the Effective Population Size of Conserved Populations

Accurate estimation of effective population size is important in attempts to conserve small populations of animals or plants. We review the genetic and ecological methods that have been used to estimate effective population size in the past and suggest that, while genetic methods may often be appropriate for the estimation of N _e, and its monitoring, ecological methods have the advantage of providing data that can help predict the effect of a changed environment on N _e. Estimation of N _e, is particularly complex in populations with overlapping generations, and we summarize previous empirical estimates of N _e that used ecological methods in such populations. Since it is often difficult to assess what parameters and assumptions have been used in previous calculations, we suggest a method that provides a good estimate of N _e, makes clear what assumptions are involved, and yet requires a minimum of information. The method is used to analyze data from 14 studies. In 36% (5) of these studies, our estimate is in excellent agreement with the original, and yet we use significantly less information, in 21% (3) the original estimate is markedly lower, in 43% (6) it is markedly higher. Reasons for the discrepancies are suggested. Two of the underestimates involve a failure in the original to account for a long maturation time, and four of life overestimates involve problems in the original with the correction for overlapping generations.     

Collaborative Modeling for Decision Support in Water Resources: Principles and Best Practices

Collaborative Modeling for Decision Support integrates collaborative modeling with participatory processes to inform natural resources decisions. Practitioners and advocates claim that the approach will lead to better water management, balancing interests more effectively and reducing the likelihood of costly legal delays. These claims are easy to make, but the benefits will only be realized if the process is conducted effectively. To provide guidance for how to conduct an effective collaborative modeling process, a task committee cosponsored by the Environmental Water Resources Institute (EWRI) of the American Society of Civil Engineers and by the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers' Institute for Water Resources developed a set of Principles and Best Practices for anyone who might convene or conduct collaborative modeling processes. The guidance is intended for both conflict resolution professionals and modelers, and our goal is to integrate these two fields in a way that will improve water resources planning and decision making. Here, the set of eight principles is presented along with a selection of associated best practices, illustrated by two different case examples. The complete document is available at: http://www.computeraideddisputeresolution.us/bestpractices/ .     

The revenge of OSHA: The new asbestos regulations

After suits by the AFL-CIO and the Service Employees International Union demanding more worker protection, OSHA published new proposed asbestos regulations in 1990. Hearings were held in 1991. Everyone was very interested. Nothing happened for about three years. Then, just when everyone thought they had their “asbestos problems” figured out, along came the new October 11, 1994, asbestos rules. Look out building owners, property management companies, abatement contractors, and asbestos consultants—it's your turn to cry.     

Influence of Targets and Assessment Region Size on Perceived Conservation Priorities

We used an existing conservation opportunity area (OA) data layer for four contiguous ecological subsections within the Ozark Highlands to quantitatively evaluate the influence of conservation targets and assessment region size on conservation priorities. OAs are natural and seminatural land-cover patches that are away from roads and away from patch edges. To evaluate the influence of targets, we assigned a priority score to each OA polygon for each of five different conservation targets, including land-cover patch size, landform representation, target vertebrate richness, target breeding bird richness, and target land cover. The top-scoring OAs for each target were added to an OA selection set for that target until 50% of the study area was chosen. These five OA selection sets were overlain to quantify overlap in priorities. Only 1.6% of the study area, or 2.1% of all OA polygons, was selected by all five targets. To evaluate the influence of assessment region size, we compared results of priority ranking of OAs relative to the entire study area against a merged set of priority rankings established separately relative to each of the four subsections within the study area. When high-priority OAs were added until 25% of the region was within the selection set for each of the five targets, the sets based on the whole study area versus each subsection evaluated separately overlapped from 45.4% to 81.9%. Thus, perceived priorities of conservation assessments are strongly influenced both by the targets that are evaluated and by the size of the assessment region.     

Effects of Mine Drainage on Breakdown of Aspen Litter in Mountain Streams

Rates of aspen litter breakdown were measured at 40 sites in streams of the Rocky Mountains of Colorado, U.S.A. The sites encompassed a range of effects of mine drainage, from pristine (no effects) to highly stressed. The pH, concentrations of dissolved zinc, and deposition rates of metal oxides (the three main stresses from mine drainage) were measured in each stream. Rates of litter breakdown were estimated from changes in mass of aspen leaves in litterbags. The biological communities associated with litter breakdown also were evaluated by measuring the biomass of shredding invertebrates in litterbags and the rate of microbial respiration on litter. Of the stresses from mine drainage, concentration of zinc and deposition rate of metal oxides were most closely related (negatively) to rate of litter breakdown. Biomass of shredding invertebrates was also negatively related to concentration of dissolved zinc and deposition of metal oxides. Microbial respiration was negatively related to deposition rate of metal oxides and positively related to concentration of nutrients. Both shredder biomass and microbial respiration were positively related to litter breakdown rate and, together, accounted for 79% of its variation. Recovery of litter breakdown in streams affected by mine drainage requires remediation that limits both dissolved and deposited metals.     

Prospective intervention trial of a screening protocol to identify fetal trisomy 18 using maternal serum alpha-fetoprotein,unconjugated oestriol,and human chorionic gonadotropin

Two prenatal centres in New England, routinely using a screening protocol for fetal Down syndrome that included maternal serum alpha-fetoprotein (AFP), unconjugated oestriol (uE3), and human chorionic gonadotropin (hCG) measurements in combination with maternal age, adopted a separate screening protocol for trisomy 18. That protocol identified a pregnancy as being at high risk when AFP, uE3, and hCG measurements all fell at or below specified cut-offs (0.75, 0.60, and 0.55 multiples of the median, respectively), regardless of maternal age. Among the first 19 491 women screened, 98 (0.5 per cent) were found to have values which placed them in the high-risk category. Four of these women were subsequently found not to be pregnant. In two others, samples from non-pregnant individuals were found to have been incorrectly submitted for analysis in place of the samples from the pregnant women. All of the remaining 92 women were counselled and offered amniocentesis and fetal karyotyping. Eighty-eight (96 per cent) accepted. Karyotypes or birth outcomes were available on all 92 pregnancies. Six cases of trisomy 18 and one case of Turner syndrome were identified by karyotype. One case of trisomy 18 was identified for every 14 unaffected pregnancies offered amniocentesis. In the present prospective study, an estimated 85 per cent of the cases of trisomy 18 were identified. However, given the small number ofcases (six), the 95 per cent confidence interval for the detection rate is broad (40–95 per cent).     

Retrospective study of trisomy 18 in chorionic villi with fluorescent in situ hybridization on archival direct preparations

Trisomy 18 in direct chorionic villus preparations needs further investigation since the chromosome abnormality may be confined to the placenta and may not represent the actual fetal karyotype. We performed, retrospectively, fluorescent in situ hybridization (FISH) with the chromosome 18 centromere probe (L1.84) on interphase nuclei of destained slides of all cases of full trisomy 18 (n=22) and mosaic trisomy 18 (n=8) detected among 7600 first-trimester chorionic villus samples during an 8-year period (1985–1992). More nuclei displaying three signals were encountered in cases of full and mosaic trisomy 18 confirmed in fetal tissue than in non-confirmed cases. FISH can be useful for the verification of trisomy 18 in direct chorionic villus preparations.     

Inbreeding in a lek-mating ant species, Pogonomyrmex occidentalis

In this paper we have two goals. First, we examine the effects of sample size on the statistical power to detect a given amount of inbreeding in social insect populations. The statistical power to detect a given level of inbreeding is largely a function of the number of colonies sampled. We explore two sampling schemes, one in which a single individual per colony is sampled for different sample sizes and a second sampling scheme in which constant sampling effort is maintained (the product of the number of colonies and the number of workers per colony is constant). We find that adding additional workers to a sample from a colony makes it easier to detect inbreeding in samples from given number of colonies; however, adding more colonies rather than more workers per colony always gives greater power to detect inbreeding. Because even relatively large amounts of sib-mating generate relatively small inbreeding coefficients, detection of even substantial deviations from random mating will require very large samples. Second, we look at the amount of inbreeding in a large population of the western harvest ant, Pogonomyrmex occidentalis. We find deviations from Hardy-Weinberg equilibrium equivalent to approximately 27% sib-mating in our population ( f = 0.09). Review of past studies on the population structure of other Pogonomyrmex species suggests that inbreeding may be a regular feature of the mating system of these ants. Although P. occidentalisis a swarm-mating species, there are a number of features of its population biology which suggest that the effective population size may be small. These include topographical variation that potentially breaks the population into demes, variation in the reproductive output of colonies, and variation in the size of reproductives produced by colonies. Received: 6 May 1996 / Accepted after revision: 6 October 1996