A Simulation Study to Assess the Sensitivity of a Forest Health Monitoring Network to Outbreaks of Defoliating Insects

The sensitivity of the United States Forest Health Monitoring network to outbreaks of defoliating insects was examined by means of a simulation study. A model constructed specifically for the study was used to generate a wide variety of defoliation patterns in forested landscapes. Forest configuration was that of Minnesota, USA, as expressed by the GAP land cover classification. Combinations of model parameters were based on a Latin Hypercube sample. The relationship between the average number of plots defoliated and outbreak characteristics was then examined via multiple regression. Both theoretical and model results pointed to a strong, linear relationship between the average number of plots defoliated and outbreak size. Model results provided additional insight, suggesting a significant relationship between the average number of plots defoliated and other outbreak characteristics after outbreak size was taken into account.     

Comparison of 24 h averaged VOC monitoring results for residential indoor and outdoor air using Carbopack X-filled diffusive samplers and active sampling--a pilot study

Analytical results obtained by thermal desorption GC/MS for 24 h diffusive sampling of 11 volatile organic compounds (VOCs) are compared with results of time-averaged active sampling at a known constant flow rate. Air samples were collected with co-located duplicate diffusive sampling tubes and one passivated canister. A total of eight multiple-component sampling events took place at fixed positions inside and outside three private homes. Subsequently, a known amount of sample air was transferred from the canister to an adsorbent tube for analysis by thermal desorption GC/MS. Results for the 11 most prevalent compounds--Freon 11, 1,3-butadiene, benzene, toluene, tetrachloroethene, ethylbenzene, m,p-xylene, o-xylene, 4-ethyltoluene, 1,3,5-trimethylbenzene, and p-dichlorobenzene--show that the ratio of average study values (diffusive sampling to active sampling) is 0.92 with 0.70 and 1.14 extreme ratios. Absolute percent difference for duplicate samples using diffusive sampling was <10% for the four most prevalent compounds. Agreement between the two sampling approaches indicates that the prediction of approximately constant diffusive sampling rates based on previous laboratory studies is valid under the field conditions.     

Supervisor expediency to employee expediency: The moderating role of leader–member exchange and the mediating role of employee unethical tolerance

We utilize social learning theory to test the role‐modeling effect of supervisor expediency (i.e., a supervisor's use of unethical practices to expedite work for self‐serving purposes). In particular, we examine the relationship between supervisor expediency and employee expediency, as moderated by leader–member exchange (LMX) and mediated by employee unethical tolerance. We predict that employees are more likely to model their supervisors' expedient behaviors when their relationship is characterized by high‐LMX (a high‐quality exchange relationship that is rich in socioemotional support). Furthermore, we argue that supervisor expediency, especially when LMX is high, influences employees' attitudes of unethical tolerance, which then affects employees' expedient behaviors. Across 2 multisource field studies and a third time‐lagged field study, we found general support for our theoretical predictions. Theoretical and practical implications are discussed.     

Field effectiveness evaluation of advanced driver assistance systems

Abstract

Objective: Advanced driver assistance systems (ADAS) are a class of vehicle technologies designed to increase safety by providing drivers with timely warnings and autonomously intervening to avoid hazardous situations. Though laboratory testing suggests that ADAS technologies will greatly impact crash involvement rates, real-world evidence that characterizes their effectiveness is still limited. This study evaluates and quantifies the association of ADAS technologies with the likelihood of a moderate or severe crash for new-model BMWs in the United States.

Methods: Vehicle ADAS option information for the cohort of model year 2014 and later BMW passenger vehicles sold after January 1, 2014 (n?=?1,063,503), was coded using VIN-identified options data. ADAS technologies of interest include frontal collision warning with autonomous emergency braking, lane departure warning, and blind spot detection. BMW Automated Crash Notification system data (from January 2014 to November 2017) were merged with vehicle data by VIN to identify crashed vehicles (n?=?15,507), including date, crash severity (delta V), and area of impact. Using Cox proportional hazards regression modeling, the study calculates the adjusted hazard ratio for crashing among BMW passenger vehicles with versus without ADAS technologies. The adjusted percentage reduction in moderate and severe crashes associated with ADAS is interpreted as one minus the hazard ratio.

Results: Vehicles equipped with both autonomous emergency braking and lane departure warning were 23% less likely to crash than those not equipped (hazard ratio [HR]?=?0.77; 95% confidence interval [CI], 0.73–0.81), controlling for model year, vehicle size and body type. Autonomous emergency braking and lane departure warning generally occur together, making it difficult to tease apart their individual effects. Blind spot detection was associated with a 14% reduction in crashes after controlling for the presence of autonomous emergency braking and lane departure warning (HR =0.86; 95% CI, 0.744–0.99). Differences were observed by vehicle type and crash type. The combined effect of autonomous emergency braking and lane departure warning was greater in newer model vehicles: Equipped vehicles were 13% less likely to crash (HR =0.87; 95% CI, 0.79–0.95) among 2014 model year vehicles versus 34% less likely to crash (HR =0.66; 95% CI, 0.57–0.77) among 2017 model year vehicles.

Conclusion: This robust cohort study contributes to the growing evidence on the effectiveness of ADAS technologies.     

Influence of Clear Fellings on the Bryophyte Component of the Broad-leaved Forests of the Bashkir Cis-Ural Region

The change in the composition of the bryophyte component of succession communities that occur in the process of natural regeneration at the site of clear felling of the indigenous elm—maple–linden forests of the Bashkir Cis-Ural Region has been studied. The vulnerability of species to the consequences of felling is affected by their substrate confinement, ecological amplitude in relation to the factors of temperature, humidity, variability of soil moisture, and type of life strategy. In the secondary aspen forests, the absence or low constancy of nemoral epiphytic and ground mosses was noted.     

Singular Spectrum Analysis of Hydroecological Parameter Dynamics of Lake Naroch’ in the Years 1978–2015

Singular Spectrum Analysis (SSA) has been used to decompose continuous series of data on certain characteristics of Lake Naroch’ ecosystem during the vegetative seasons of years 1978–2015 into a long-time trend, a periodic component, and a residue not amenable to decomposition. The contribution of each component to changes in this variable has been assessed. The trends accounted for 78–97% of parameter variability, and the periodic components accounted for 2.5–15%. The fluctuations of phytoplankton and zooplankton biomass dynamics were the most diverse, and the contribution of these components was the greatest (15 and 8%, respectively). The periodic components in the changes of all parameters could be divided into four groups according to period duration (17–22, 7–15, 4–7, and less than 4 years). Multidimensional factor analysis of seven biotic parameters was performed in order to identify fluctuations in the ecosystem. Five major factors accounting for 93.6% of ecosystem changes together were identified, and each factor variable was subjected to SSA analysis. The period durations were similar for the oscillatory components identified. The first factor was interpreted as a trophic status of the water body, the second was taken to be the geographical location that defines the amount of solar radiation energy available, the third was taken to be the availability of biogenic elements (phosphorus in particular), and the fourth was interpreted as specific developmental cycles of live components of the ecosystem.     

Socio-environmental consideration of phosphorus flows in the urban sanitation chain of contrasting cities

Understanding how cities can transform organic waste into a valuable resource is critical to urban sustainability. The capture and recycling of phosphorus (P), and other essential nutrients, from human excreta is particularly important as an alternative organic fertilizer source for agriculture. However, the complex set of socio-environmental factors influencing urban human excreta management is not yet sufficiently integrated into sustainable P research. Here, we synthesize information about the pathways P can take through urban sanitation systems along with barriers and facilitators to P recycling across cities. We examine five case study cities by using a sanitation chains approach: Accra, Ghana; Buenos Aires, Argentina; Beijing, China; Baltimore, USA; and London, England. Our cross-city comparison shows that London and Baltimore recycle a larger percentage of P from human excreta back to agricultural lands than other cities, and that there is a large diversity in socio-environmental factors that affect the patterns of recycling observed across cities. Our research highlights conditions that may be “necessary but not sufficient” for P recycling, including access to capital resources. Path dependencies of large sanitation infrastructure investments in the Global North contrast with rapidly urbanizing cities in the Global South, which present opportunities for alternative sanitation development pathways. Understanding such city-specific social and environmental barriers to P recycling options could help address multiple interacting societal objectives related to sanitation and provide options for satisfying global agricultural nutrient demand.

     

Freshwater stress on small island developing states: population projections and aridity changes at 1.5 and 2 °C

Small island developing states (SIDS) face multiple threats from anthropogenic climate change, including potential changes in freshwater resource availability. Due to a mismatch in spatial scale between SIDS landforms and the horizontal resolution of global climate models (GCMs), SIDS are mostly unaccounted for in GCMs that are used to make future projections of global climate change and its regional impacts. Specific approaches are required to address this gap between broad-scale model projections and regional, policy-relevant outcomes. Here, we apply a recently developed methodology that circumvents the GCM limitation of coarse resolution in order to project future changes in aridity on small islands. These climate projections are combined with independent population projections associated with shared socioeconomic pathways (SSPs) to evaluate overall changes in freshwater stress in SIDS at warming levels of 1.5 and 2 °C above pre-industrial levels. While we find that future population growth will dominate changes in projected freshwater stress especially toward the end of the century, projected changes in aridity are found to compound freshwater stress for the vast majority of SIDS. For several SIDS, particularly across the Caribbean region, a substantial fraction (~?25%) of the large overall freshwater stress projected under 2 °C at 2030 can be avoided by limiting global warming to 1.5 °C. Our findings add to a growing body of literature on the difference in climate impacts between 1.5 and 2 °C and underscore the need for regionally specific analysis.     

An integrated approach for assessing the migration behavior of chlorpyrifos and carbaryl in the unsaturated soil zone

Chlorpyrifos (O, O-diethyl O-3,5,6-trichloropyridin-2-yl phosphorothioate) and carbaryl (1-naphthyl methylcarbamate) are often applied concurrently as insecticides in food production. The aim of this study was to research their migration behavior in a real environment. We researched the leaching of both pesticides by setting up field lysimeters on a farm with the typical soil used in fruit production today. In order to analyze the variables involved in this process, we performed complementary adsorption studies, we performed complementary adsorption studies using batches and undisturbed soil laboratory columns for both compounds. The results for pesticide transport through the lysimeters showed that less than 1% of chlorpyrifos was recovered in the leachates, while almost 17% was recovered for carbaryl. Having completed the experiment in undisturbed laboratory columns, soil analysis showed that chlorpyrifos mainly remained in the first 5 cm, while carbaryl moved down to the lower sections. These results can be explained in view of the sorption coefficient values (K_D) obtained in horizons A and B for chlorpyrifos (393 and 184 L kg^?1) and carbaryl (3.1 and 4.2 L kg^?1), respectively. By integrating the results obtained in the different approaches, we were able to characterize the percolation modes of these pesticides in the soil matrix, thus contributing to the sustainable use of resources.     

A review of regulations and guidelines related to winter manure application

Winter manure application elevates nutrient losses and impairment of water quality as compared to manure applications in other seasons. In conjunction with reviewing global distribution of animal densities, we reviewed worldwide mandatory regulations and voluntary guidelines on efforts to reduce off-site nutrient losses associated with winter manure applications. Most of the developed countries implement regulations or guidelines to restrict winter manure application, which range from a regulative ban to guidelines based upon weather and field management conditions. In contrast, developing countries lack such official directives, despite an increasing animal production industry and concern over water quality. An analysis of five case studies reveals that directives are derived from a common rationale to reduce off-site manure nutrient losses, but they are also affected by local socio-economic and biophysical considerations. Successful programs combine site-specific management strategies along with expansion of manure storage to offer farmers greater flexibility in winter manure management.