Optimum forage allocation through chance-constrained programming

Most resource allocation models developed to aid resource planning have been deterministic; that is, the ecosystem and economic variables are assumed to be known with certainty. It is these elements that present problems concerning risk and uncertainty involved in decision making. The objective of this study is to present a mathematical approach for optimizing resource allocation in management situations in which random events occur. This particular technique of decision analysis is chance-constrained programming. The model makes possible the investigation of risk and uncertainty associated with resource management decision making. Range decision-makers must often stock their range before they are sure of the available forage; thus, the amount of available forage is a random element with which managers must contend. The chance-constrained approach to decision making may be used when such random events occur and when it is not possible to plan exactly for future events. Two parameters are used to adjust the mean value of constraints; these are the standard deviation of the constraint value (S_bi) and the probability term which is specified by the manager (K_αi). The mean values are adjusted by the product K_αiS_bi. In the study reported here, a K_αi value of 0.57 gave results which appeared to have usefulness. The results indicate that the penalties a rancher must assume for over-estimating his carrying capacity are greater than the penalties for underestimating the carrying capacity. With the value of the standard deviation used in the example, numbers of livestock and the corresponding net revenues should be about 22% less than those indicated by average forage production. With greater variation in forage production, the reduction would be greater. By using these values, the chance-constrained approach can meaningfully incorporate random variables into a decision model.     

Extension rate: A primary control on the isotopic composition of West Indian (Jamaican) scleractinian reef coral skeletons

Large variations in skeletal microarchitecture, and in the carbon and oxygen isotopic composition of the skeleton, exist within single calices and over the surfaces of single colonies of various species of West Indian (Jamaican) scleractinian reef corals. Rapidly extending parts of individual colonies are depleted in both C¹³ and O¹⁸ regardless of the abundance of zooxanthellae in the overlying tissues. We suggest that this relationship is due to active translocation of organic compounds to sites of rapid calcification. Considerable variation in isotopic composition is found in skeletons of different specimens of the same species even when the skeletons are sampled in a consistent manner, come from the same locality and depth, and have a comparable growth history. The isotopic composition of the scleractinian skeleton is vastly more complex than has heretofore been realized.     

The environment as a factor of production

This paper uses firm-level data about electric utilities to develop an empirical model of how electric utilities use and bank SO₂ pollution permits under the Acid Rain Program. The empirical model considers emissions, fuels, and labor as variable inputs with quasi-fixed stocks of permits and capital. Consequently, substitution possibilities between the environment and other production factors can be measured and tested. The results reveal substantial substitution between emissions, permit stocks, capital, fuel, and labor. The empirical findings also indicate that firms bank permits primarily as a hedge against uncertainty and for other firm-specific reasons. Overall, the results suggest that cap-and-trade approaches can reduce the cost of meeting environmental goals by providing a mechanism for addressing regulatory and market risks and by signaling an appropriate price for factor use, especially irreversible capital investments.     

Sublittoral epifaunal communities at Signy Island,Antarctica. II. Below the ice-foot zone

Photographic samples were taken every 5 m along two 40 m transects on mostly rock face at Signy Island, Antarctica, during the austral winter of 1991. Dense and taxonomically rich communities of benthos occurred at most of the sublittoral study locations. These communities, however, varied significantly with substratum type, substratum profile and depth. Algae were generally the largest occupiers of space, but the area of substratum colonised by animal taxa increased whenever the profile approached vertical. Shallower than 15 m, disturbance effects, largely from ice, restricted community development to a high degree, but the frequency of disturbance at 25 m appeared to maintain high diversity by preventing domination of the assemblage by a few competitively superior taxa. Bryozoans, and to a lesser extent sponges, were the most abundant animal phyla. Among the bryozoans, species with an encrusting growth form occurred at the shallowest depths followed by encrusting massive/folaceous species and, at 40 m, the erect flexible forms. The ratio of encrusting to erect bryozoan species changed rapidly over the 0 to 50 m depth zone, from exclusively encrusting at 0 to 5 m to approaching 1 at 50 m. The erect bryozoans studied, from the shallow sublittoral to 290 m, could be classified as encrusting massive (foliaceous), erect flexible or erect rigid forms. There was some suggestion, despite the overlap between groups and considerable intra-group variation, that encrusting massive forms were abundant in the shallowest water, followed by erect flexible forms and then erect rigid forms with increasing depth. Some species which occurred as encrusting massive/foliaceous forms in deeper water occurred mostly in encrusting form only in shallow water (<15 m).     

Courtship display by great frigatebirds, Fregata minor: an energetically costly handicap signal?

We used detailed time-budget observations, mark-resight data, and doubly labeled water estimates of energy expenditure to test whether energy spent on courtship display by male frigatebirds functions as a sexually selected handicap signal. During a 2-day period of time budget observations, males displayed on average 29.5% of the time (range 0–100% for 15 different males), and this value was correlated with an index of season-long display effort. Season-long display effort was strongly predictive of pairing success. Average field metabolic rate (FMR) during the 2-day time budget period was 676.5 kJ/day (range 464.8–1035.0), substantially lower than the mass-specific FMR predicted from studies of other seabirds during incubation or chick-rearing. Despite a low overall FMR, display effort could function as an energetic handicap, either if FMR correlates positively with the amount of courtship performed or if high-quality males display at a high rate because they pay a lower energy cost per unit of display than do low-quality males. We found no relationship between FMR and display rate, despite good power for doing so. We also did not find a significant difference in energy spent divided by courtship time for males that were or were not chosen by females (inferred to be high- and low-quality males, respectively), though the medians differed in the predicted direction (preferred males having lower relative costs than non-preferred males) and the confidence interval on the difference between groups was very wide. Thus, we found evidence that male courtship effort is predictive of pairing success, we rejected one mechanism by which energetic cost of display could function as a handicap, and our test of the alternate energetic handicap mechanism was equivocal.     

REGRESSION MODELS OF HERBICIDE CONCENTRATIONS IN OUTFLOW FROM RESERVOIRS IN THE MIDWESTERN USA, 1992–19931

ABSTRACT: Reservoirs are used to store water for public water supply, flood control, irrigation, recreation, hydropower, and wildlife habitat, but also often store undesirable substances such as herbicides. The outflow from 76 reservoirs in the midwestern USA, was sampled four times in 1992 and four times in 1993. At least one herbicide was detected in 82.6 percent of all samples, and atrazine was detected in 82.1 percent of all samples. Herbicide properties; topography, land use, herbicide use, and soil type in the contributing drainage area; residence time of water in reservoirs; and timing of inflow, release, and rainfall all can affect the concentration of herbicides in reservoirs. A GIS was used to quantify characteristics of land use, agricultural chemical use, climatic conditions, topographic character, and soil type by reservoir drainage basins. Multiple linear and logistic regression equations were used to model mean herbicide concentrations in reservoir outflow as a function of these characteristics. Results demonstrate a strong association between mean herbicide concentrations in reservoir outflow and herbicide use rates within associated drainage basins. Results also demonstrate the importance of including soils and basin hydrologic characteristics in models used to estimate mean herbicide concentrations.     

消融的冰川：加拿大班夫国家公园亚高山带鲍湖中持久性有机氯的主要来源

有机氯杀虫剂和多氯联苯（PCB）是环境中普遍而稳固的化合物。现已查明，由于它们从温暖的地区逐渐蒸发出来，并在较冷的地区凝聚下来，因而它们富集在寒冷的环境中。在本研究中，我们的结果是，消融的冰川供给阿尔伯达亚高山带湖泊中的有机氯输入量为50%～97％，而提供的水量为73％。对氚的分析结果表明，在夏季的中、晚期，至少10％的冰川消融物是在1950～1970年期间沉积下来的，这期间它受到有机氯更多的污染。这一发现表明，气候变暖可能会使消融的冰川成为日益增多的淡水污染物来源。由于有机物贫乏的冰川粘土对多氯联苯这样的疏水化合物的吸附能力有限，因此冰川水流带来的有机氯大多呈溶解状态。     

Development of a accelerated solvent extraction and gel permeation chromatography analytical method for measuring persistent organohalogen compounds in adipose and organ tissue analysis

A new analytical method has been developed for the quantification of 59 different persistent organohalogen compounds, such as polybrominated diphenyl ethers (PBDEs), polychlorinated naphthalenes (PCNs), polychlorinated biphenyls (PCBs), PCB metabolites, organochlorine pesticides (OCPs) in biological organ tissues. The optimum extraction and cleanup procedures were examined using accelerated solvent extraction (ASE), automated gel permeation chromatography (GPC) on Biobeads S-X3 and automated solid phase extraction (SPE) on silica-gel. The target compounds were divided into two fractions, non-polar compounds and more polar compounds, which in the latter fraction was subsequently methylated using diazomethane. Detection can be achieved by GC/MS in negative chemical ionization (NCI) mode. The average recoveries of the compounds spiked in swine liver, heart, kidney, and cattle adipose tissues were considered satisfactory, and it was confirmed that the method could be used in routine analysis.