用灰关联分析和神经网络方法预测煤与瓦斯突出

本文应用灰色系统理论的灰色关联分析,对煤与瓦斯突出影响因素进行灰关联分析,得出了各影响因素对煤与瓦斯突出影响程度的大小排序,选择灰关联分析的五个优势因子:瓦斯放散初速度、坚固性系数、瓦斯压力、煤体破坏类型和开采深度,作为输入参数,用计算机对神经网络编写程序,建立了煤与瓦斯突出预测的神经网络模型.用我国典型突出矿井的煤与瓦斯突出实例作为学习样本,对网络进行训练学习,并以云南恩洪煤矿的煤与瓦斯突出实例作为预测样本进行验证.     

基于风险场的评价理论研究

目前,已经有多种方法可以用于石油化工企业的定量风险评价,但是这些方法多数是基于二维的风险分析,不能满足当今社会日趋增长的三维空间的安全管理和风险评价要求,因此,提出了三维的风险场的评价理论,从三维风险等值面来考察风险的分布和风险变化率.该方法采用场论的基本知识,把风险场看作数量场,对不同事故的个人风险及其风险梯度进行叠加,得到个人风险及其变化率.针对同一个危险源产生的爆炸、火灾和中毒三种风险属性,给出了其叠加后的个人风险和个人风险变化率公式,在相应的坐标系中并对二维和三维个人风险的不同的空间分布进行了比较.该方法能够清晰、直观、全面地表示出个人风险场的分布情况,同时能够了解到多个风险共同作用下的风险变化情况.     

Mathematical modelling of sewage sludge incineration in a bubbling fluidised bed with special consideration for thermally-thick fuel particles

Fluidised bed combustor (FBC) is one of the key technologies for sewage sludge incineration. In this paper, a mathematical model is developed for the simulation of a large-scale sewage sludge incineration plant. The model assumes the bed consisting of a fast-gas phase, an emulsion phase and a fuel particle phase with specific consideration for thermally-thick fuel particles. The model further improves over previous works by taking into account throughflow inside the bubbles as well as the floating and random movement of the fuel particles inside the bed. Validation against both previous lab-scale experiments and operational data of a large-scale industrial plant was made. Calculation results indicate that combustion split between the bed and the freeboard can range from 60/40 to 90/10 depending on the fuel particle distribution across the bed height under the specific conditions. The bed performance is heavily affected by the variation in sludge moisture level. The response time to variation in feeding rate is different for different parameters, from 6min for outlet H(2)O, 10min for O(2), to 34min for bed temperature.     

内乡-镇平4.7级地震及震后应急

内乡 -镇平 4 7级地震 ,是河南省解放以来唯一一次造成人员伤亡的地震事件。本文对这次地震的震害及烈度进行了考察评定 ,总结了有关部门的震后应急措施 ,讨论了从这次地震中应吸取的经验教训。     

Entry Deterrence and Signaling in a Nonrenewable Resource Model

We analyze a nonrenewable resource model in which an incumbent firm faces potential entry from a rival firm. The incumbent has private information about its stock size but the rival can observe extraction. With observable extraction and unobservable stock, the rival can use extraction as a signal about stock, from which it can infer whether entry is likely to be profitable. We characterize the necessary conditions for pooling and separating perfect Bayesian equilibria in a signaling game of resource extraction and provide examples of each. We show that the incumbent will often prefer pooling to separating even though welfare is higher in separating equilibrium.     

聚焦ISO 14001标准 创建生态旅游岛

结合鼓浪屿区实施ISO14001标准,探讨了其意义,实施步骤和特点,可为其它风景名胜区建立环境管理体系所借鉴。     

地震学综合定量预报方法在华东地区地震预测中的应用研究

本文应用地震学综合定量预报方法,结合区域地震活动特点,在华东地区进行了分区实际预报效能检验.结果表明该方法在华东地区有5个区域通过R值检验,效果较好,有4个区域未能通过R值检验;并对通过检验的区域地震活动趋势进行了分析.     

贵州省煤中挥发性和半挥发性微量元素分布规律的初步研究

研究了贵州省四大煤田不同层位、不同煤种中Hg,As,Se,Pb,Cd,Tl,Zn,Sb等挥发性和半挥发性微量元素的分布规律。贵州省原煤中Hg,As,Se,Pb,Cd,Sb等元素的含量高于地壳克拉克值;Tl,Zn等的含量低于地壳克拉克值;另外,除了Pb,Zn外,贵州省原煤中Hg,As,Se,Cd的含量远远高于东北和内蒙古东部地区。微量元素聚类分析结果表明,Hg,As,Sb可能主要分布于煤的黄铁矿中;Zn和Se可能主要赋存于闪锌矿中;Cd可能部分存在于硫化物中,部分存在于硅酸盐矿物相中;Pb可能主要存在于硅酸盐矿物相中;而Tl在煤中的赋存形式较复杂。     

完善环境影响评价公众参与的初步研究

环境影响评价制度是我国的一项基本环境保护法律制度,是环境管理体系的重要组成部分,完善公众参与体系有利于解决当前环境影响评价中公众参与存在的问题。在总结国内外公众参与发展进程的基础上,对完善公众参与体系进行了初步研究,提出了完善公众参与体系的内涵要点,提高公众参与体系研究力度,建立公众参与学相关内容。     

How should environmental exposure risk be assessed? A comparison of four methods for exposure assessment of air pollutions

Methods commonly used to assess the environmental exposure risk at a location (e.g., proximity models) are usually based on different assumptions, leading to conflicting results and recommendations in epidemiological studies. In this case study, a comparative evaluation of the accuracy levels associated with four commonly used exposure risk estimate models [i.e., traditional proximity model (TPM), emission weighted proximity model (EWPM), the American Meteorological Society/EPA regulatory model (AERMOD), and ordinary kriging interpolation (OKI)] were conducted. Results show that at the annual and the monthly scales, the normalized exposure risk values simulated by AERMOD and EWPM have higher accuracy levels than the simulations from the TPM and OKI methods. However, AERMOD has higher accuracy than that of the EWPM, and this was attributed to the differences of input data. EWPM provided the most accurate simulations when analysts have access to only point emission source data. The results also indicate that the accuracies of the exposure risks simulated by AERMOD and EWPM can be influenced by factors such as the modeling extent, the distance settings, and so forth.