Incorporating Uncertainty into Management Models for Marine Mammals

Abstract: Good management models and good models for understanding biology differ in basic philosophy. Management models must facilitate management decisions despite large amounts of uncertainty about the managed populations. Such models must be based on parameters that can be estimated readily, must explicitly account for uncertainty, and should be simple to understand and implement. In contrast, biological models are designed to elucidate the workings of biology and should not be constrained by management concerns. We illustrate the need to incorporate uncertainty in management models by reviewing the inadequacy of using standard biological models to manage marine mammals in the United States. Past management was based on a simple model that, although it may have represented population dynamics adequately, failed as a management tool because the parameter that triggered management action was extremely difficult to estimate for the majority of populations. Uncertainty in parameter estimation resulted in few conservation actions. We describe a recently adopted management scheme that incorporates uncertainty and its resulting implementation. The approach used in this simple management scheme, which was tested by using simulation models, incorporates uncertainty and mandates monitoring abundance and human-caused mortality. Although the entire scheme may be suitable for application to some terrestrial and marine problems, two features are broadly applicable: the incorporation of uncertainty through simulations of management and the use of quantitative management criteria to translate verbal objectives into levels of acceptable risk.     

Postemergence Control of Microstegium vimineum on Riparian Restoration Sites with Aquatic‐Use Registered Herbicides

Microstegium vimineum is an invasive grass introduced from Asia that has spread throughout riparian areas of the eastern United States threatening native riparian vegetation. Postemergence (POST) herbicides registered for aquatic use were evaluated for control of M. vimineum on two riparian restoration sites in the Piedmont and Upper Coastal Plain of North Carolina. This study found that standard and lower than standard rates of diquat, fluridone, flumioxazin, glyphosate, imazamox, and imazapyr reduced weed stem density and biomass at 6 and 30 weeks after treatment (WAT). Both rates of bispyribac and penoxsulam provided less control of M. vimineum. Visual ratings showed both rates of diquat, flumioxazin, imazamox, and imazapyr controlled 63‐100% of M. vimineum at 6 WAT and 84‐100% at 30 WAT. Fluridone and glyphosate provided slightly less control. Bispyribac and penoxsulam treatments provided less control at 6 and 30 WAT compared to the other treatments. Plots treated with both rates of diquat, flumioxazin, imazamox, and imazapyr were nearly devoid of all vegetation at 30 WAT. Recommendations include POST application of lower than standard rates of diquat, flumioxazin, fluridone, glyphosate, imazamox, and imazapyr on riparian restoration sites infested with M. vimineum. Immediate vegetation management measures including temporary and permanent plant cover should be employed on treated sites where weeds are completely eradicated to prevent erosion.     

Can health feasibly be considered as part of the planning process in Scotland?

The planning system is significant because of its capacity to determine the quality of the built environment as well as the health, well-being and quality of life of the individuals and communities therein. Development planning is especially important because of the long-term impact of the decisions. This paper was developed in response to increasing recognition amongst HIA practitioners in Scotland of the importance of planning for health. It focuses on the relationship between the planning system in Scotland, specifically the Development Planning element of it, and population health and considers how the health impact assessment (HIA) approach can facilitate and support joint working with planners. In particular, consideration is given to the potential impact of the introduction of Strategic Environmental Assessment (SEA) on the linkages between health, HIA and planning.     

Probability analyses of combining background concentrations with model-predicted concentrations

In order to calculate total concentrations for comparison to ambient air quality standards, monitored background concentrations are often combined with model predicted concentrations. Models have low skill in predicting the locations or time series of observed concentrations. Further, adding fixed points on the probability distributions of monitored and predicted concentrations is very conservative and not mathematically correct. Simply adding the 99th percentile predicted to the 99th percentile background will not yield the 99th percentile of the combined distributions. Instead, an appropriate distribution can be created by calculating all possible pairwise combinations of the 1-hr daily maximum observed background and daily maximum predicted concentration, from which a 99th percentile total value can be obtained. This paper reviews some techniques commonly used for determining background concentrations and combining modeled and background concentrations. The paper proposes an approach to determine the joint probabilities of occurrence of modeled and background concentrations. The pairwise combinations approach yields a more realistic prediction of total concentrations than the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency's (EPA) guidance approach and agrees with the probabilistic form of the National Ambient Air Quality Standards.

Implications: EPA's current approaches to determining background concentrations for compliance modeling purposes often lead to “double counting” of background concentrations and actual plume impacts and thus lead to overpredictions of total impacts. Further, the current Tier 1 approach of simply adding the top ends of the background and model predicted concentrations (e.g., adding the 99th percentiles of these distributions together) results in design value concentrations at probabilities in excess of the form of the National Ambient Air Quality Standards.     

Sex ratio varies with egg investment in the red-necked phalarope (Phalaropus lobatus)

Fisher’s sex ratio theory predicts that on average parents should allocate resources equally to the production of males and females. However, when the cost/benefit ratio for producing males versus females differs, the theory predicts that parents may bias production, typically through underproduction of the sex with greater variation in fitness. We tested theoretical predictions in the red-necked phalarope, a polyandrous shorebird with sex-role reversal. Since females are larger and therefore potentially more expensive to produce and may have greater variation in reproductive success, we predicted from Fisher’s hypothesis a male bias in population embryonic sex ratio, and from sex allocation theory, female biases in the clutches of females allocating more resources to reproduction. We measured eggs and chicks and sexed 535 offspring from 163 clutches laid over 6 years at two sites in Alaska. The embryonic sex ratio of 51.1 M:48.9 F did not vary from parity. Clutch sex ratio (% male) was positively correlated with clutch mean egg size, opposite to our prediction. Within clutches, however, egg size did not differ by sex. Male phalarope fitness may be more variable than previously thought, and/or differential investment in eggs may affect the within-sex fitness of males more than females. Eggs producing males were less dense than those producing females, possibly indicating they contained more yolk relative to albumen. Albumen contributes to chick structural size, while yolk supports survivorship after hatch. Sex-specific chick growth strategies may affect egg size and allocation patterns by female phalaropes and other birds.     

Are vocal signals used to recognize individuals during male–male competition in greater prairie-chickens (Tympanuchus cupido)?

Vocal signaling can be an important component of vertebrate communication during social interactions. If vocalizations vary among individuals but are consistent within a given individual, they may be used to discriminate among individuals. In many species, territorial males use vocalizations to discriminate between neighbors and strangers and either respond more aggressively toward strangers relative to neighbors (“dear enemy” effect) or they respond more aggressively toward neighbors relative to strangers (“nasty neighbor” effect). In the greater prairie-chicken (Tympanuchus cupido), male vocalizations are an integral part of the display males produce on leks. We investigated whether male greater prairie-chickens discriminate among familiar individuals on their own territory, familiar individuals outside their normal territory and strangers from a nearby lek. Vocal characteristics varied among males, suggesting that vocalizations may potentially be used by prairie-chickens to identify individuals. Males responded to playback of prairie-chicken calls by vocalizing at a faster rate and approaching the playback speaker, but did not vary in their response to the vocalizations based on the identity of the caller. Our results suggest that variation is present among the vocalizations of individual male greater prairie-chickens, but males do not appear to discriminate among familiar individuals and strangers based solely on their “boom” vocalizations. Greater prairie-chicken vocalization likely functions as a way of announcing that a territory is occupied and defended, but it may also serve as a way of advertising to conspecifics or as a signal that is secondary to other forms of communication.