Effectiveness of China's National Forest Protection Program and nature reserves

There is profound interest in knowing the degree to which China's institutions are capable of protecting its natural forests and biodiversity in the face of economic and political change. China's 2 most important forest‐protection policies are its National Forest Protection Program (NFPP) and its national‐level nature reserves (NNRs). The NFPP was implemented in 2000 in response to deforestation‐caused flooding. We undertook the first national, quantitative assessment of the NFPP and NNRs to examine whether the NFPP achieved its deforestation‐reduction target and whether the NNRs deter deforestation altogether. We used MODIS data to estimate forest cover and loss across mainland China (2000–2010). We also assembled the first‐ever polygon dataset for China's forested NNRs (n = 237, 74,030 km² in 2000) and used both conventional and covariate‐matching approaches to compare deforestation rates inside and outside NNRs (2000–2010). In 2000, 1.765 million km² or 18.7% of mainland China was forested (12.3% with canopy cover of ≥70%)) or woodland (6.4% with canopy cover <70% and tree plus shrub cover ≥40%). By 2010, 480,203 km² of forest and woodland had been lost, an annual deforestation rate of 2.7%. Forest‐only loss was 127,473 km² (1.05% annually). In the NFPP provinces, the forest‐only loss rate was 0.62%, which was 3.3 times lower than in the non‐NFPP provinces. Moreover, the Landsat data suggest that these loss rates are overestimates due to large MODIS pixel size. Thus, China appears to have achieved, and even exceeded, its target of reducing deforestation to 1.1% annually in the NFPP provinces. About two‐thirds of China's NNRs were effective in protecting forest cover (prevented loss 4073 km² unmatched approach; 3148 km² matched approach), and within‐NNR deforestation rates were higher in provinces with higher overall deforestation. Our results indicate that China's existing institutions can protect domestic forest cover.     

Cronbach's alpha reliability: Interval estimation,hypothesis testing,and sample size planning

Cronbach's alpha is one of the most widely used measures of reliability in the social and organizational sciences. Current practice is to report the sample value of Cronbach's alpha reliability, but a confidence interval for the population reliability value also should be reported. The traditional confidence interval for the population value of Cronbach's alpha makes an unnecessarily restrictive assumption that the multiple measurements have equal variances and equal covariances. We propose a confidence interval that does not require equal variances or equal covariances. The results of a simulation study demonstrated that the proposed method performed better than alternative methods. We also present some sample size formulas that approximate the sample size requirements for desired power or desired confidence interval precision. R functions are provided that can be used to implement the proposed confidence interval and sample size methods. Copyright © 2014 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Structuring decisions about energy in developing communities: an example from Canada's north

Decisions about energy in developing communities are challenging from a technical standpoint, and because of the unique characteristics that typify them, e.g. limited infrastructure and government budgets, complex social and political arrangements, and economic vulnerability. Against the backdrop of these challenges, the government of Canada's Northwest Territories (NWT) is attempting to reform the region's energy system. This paper provides insights from the decision sciences, stemming from our work on the NWT's energy planning process, about how to structure decisions about energy development and delivery so as to effectively meet a range of stakeholders’ objectives in a transparent and inclusive manner.     

Cross‐cultural comparisons between the earthquake preparedness models of Taiwan and New Zealand

Taiwan and New Zealand are both located in the Pacific Rim where 81 per cent of the world's largest earthquakes occur. Effective programmes for increasing people's preparedness for these hazards are essential. This paper tests the applicability of the community engagement theory of hazard preparedness in two distinct cultural contexts. Structural equation modelling analysis provides support for this theory. The paper suggests that the close fit between theory and data that is achieved by excluding trust supports the theoretical prediction that familiarity with a hazard negates the need to trust external sources. The results demonstrate that the hazard preparedness theory is applicable to communities that have previously experienced earthquakes and are therefore familiar with the associated hazards and the need for earthquake preparedness. The paper also argues that cross‐cultural comparisons provide opportunities for collaborative research and learning as well as access to a wider range of potential earthquake risk management strategies.     

Narrow reasoning about the use of broad personality measures for personnel selection

Ones and Viswesvaran (1996) have argued for the use of broad bandwidth, rather than narrow bandwidth, personality predictors in personnel selection research when overall job performance is the criterion of interest. We take the opposite position in this article—that homogeneous measures of unidimensional personality traits are always to be preferred as predictors of work (and other) criteria. We maintain that the use of multiple unidimensional predictors provides important advantages over the use of multidimensional aggregates of those predictors. These advantages pertain to both (a) empirical accuracy in predicting job performance, and (b) psychological meaningfulness in explaining work behavior. Our conclusions are supported by Ones and Viswesvaran's own data. Copyright © 1999 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

NUTRIENTS DISCHARGED TO THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER FROM EASTERN IOWA WATERSHEDS, 1996.19971

ABSTRACT: The introduction of nutrients from chemical fertilizer, animal manure, wastewater, and atmospheric deposition to the eastern Iowa environment creates a large potential for nutrient transport in watersheds. Agriculture constitutes 93 percent of all land use in eastern Iowa. As part of the U.S. Geological Survey National Water Quality Assessment Program, water samples were collected (typically monthly) from six small and six large watersheds in eastern Iowa between March 1996 and September 1997. A Geographic Information System (GIS) was used to determine land use and quantify inputs of nitrogen and phosphorus within the study area. Streamliow from the watersheds is to the Mississippi River. Chemical fertilizer and animal manure account for 92 percent of the estimated total nitrogen and 99.9 percent of the estimated total phosphorus input in the study area. Total nitrogen and total phosphorus loads for 1996 were estimated for nine of the 12 rivers and creeks using a minimum variance unbiased estimator model. A seasonal pattern of concentrations and loads was observed. The greatest concentrations and loads occur in the late spring to early summer in conjunction with row‐crop fertilizer applications and spring nmoff and again in the late fall to early winter as vegetation goes into dormancy and additional fertilizer is applied to row‐crop fields. The three largest rivers in eastern Iowa transported an estimated total of 79,000 metric tons of total nitrogen and 6,800 metric tons of total phosphorus to the Mississippi River in 1996. The estimated mass of total nitrogen and total phosphorus transported to the Mississippi River represents about 19 percent of all estimated nitrogen and 9 percent of all estimated phosphorus input to the study area.     

RECIRCULATING WELLS: GROUND WATER REMEDIATION AND PROTECTION OF SURFACE WATER RESOURCES1

ABSTRACT: Several chlorinated solvent plumes threaten the sole‐source aquifer underlying the Massachusetts Military Reservation at the western end of Cape Cod. Sensitive surface water features including ponds, cranberry bogs, and coastal wetlands are hydraulically connected to the aquifer. For one of the plumes (CS‐10 the original remedy of 120 extraction and reinjection wells has the potential for significant disruption of surface water hydrology, through the localized drawdown and mounding of the water table. Recirculating wells with in‐well air stripping offer a cost‐effective alternative to conventional pump‐and‐treat technology that does not adversely affect the configuration of the water table. Pilot testing of a two well system, pumping 300 gpm, showed a capture radius of > 200 feet per well, in‐well trichloroethylene (TCE) removal efficiencies of 92 to 98 percent per recirculation cycle, an average of three recirculation cycles within the capture zone, and no measurable effect on water table elevations at any point within the recirculation/treatment zone. During 120 days of operation, the mean concentration of TCE in the treatment zone was reduced by 83 percent, from 1,111 μg/l to 184 μg/l. Full‐scale design projections indicate that 60 wells at an average spacing of 160 feet, having an aggregate recirculation 11 MGD, can contain the CS‐b plume without ground water extraction or adverse hydraulic effects on surface water resources. The estimated capital costs for such a system are about $7 million, and annual operations‐and‐maintenance costs should be about $1.4 million, 40 percent of those associated with a pump and treat system over a 20‐year period.     

Optimal resource management control for CO2 emission and reduction of the greenhouse effect

In recent years, the world has witnessed an ever-growing concern towards global warming caused by greenhouse gases, such as carbon dioxide (CO₂). In order to reduce the emissions of CO₂ without limiting economic growth, substantial investments should target the development of clean technology and the expansion of forested areas. Considering the limited availability of resources, investments must be used in the most effective way. The present work proposes a method to efficiently manage these resources by applying the optimal control theory to a new mathematical model that describes the dynamics of the atmospheric CO₂. The contributions of this work are twofold: (1) present a model that describes the dynamic relation of CO₂ emission with investment in reforestation and clean technology and (2) present a method to efficiently manage the available resources by casting an optimal control problem. The mathematical model uses ordinary differential equations to relate the production of CO₂ with forest area and Gross Domestic Product (GDP). The model parameters are adjusted to fit the actual published data. Given an appropriate performance index, the optimal solution is found by numerically solving the Two-Point Boundary Value Problem (TPBVP) that arises from the application of Pontriagyn's Maximum Principle. The sensitivity of the obtained numerical solution is evaluated with respect to the uncertainties in the model parameters. The main objective of this work is to provide a quantitative tool for the efficient allocation of resources to reduce the greenhouse effect caused CO₂ emissions.     

Sensory complementation and the acquisition of predator recognition by salmonid fishes

Following disturbance, some aquatic prey species release chemicals that act as a warning cue and increase vigilance in nearby conspecifics. Such disturbance cues evoke consistent low intensity anti-predator responses. In contrast, alarm cues from injured conspecifics often evoke stronger intensity responses in prey animals. In this study, we test the sensory complement hypothesis, which suggests that multiple cues act in an additive or synergistic fashion to provide additional information for risk assessment by prey. In the first experiment, we showed that juvenile rainbow trout pre-exposed to disturbance cues respond to a given concentration of damage-released alarm cues with a higher intensity of response than the trout that were pre-exposed to cues from undisturbed conspecifics. The two cues acted in an additive fashion. In the second experiment, we demonstrated that disturbance cues alone were not enough to elicit a conditioned response to the odour of a novel predator. We also showed that while disturbance cues elicit an increase in the response of trout to alarm cues, this increase does not translate into a stronger learned response to the predator when the predator odour is paired with alarm cues. Future studies should take into account sensory complementation to avoid underestimating the responses of prey to predators.     

Impact of desiccation and heat exposure stress on Salmonella tolerance to acidic conditions

In a recent study, the pH of commonly used Salmonella pre-enrichment media became acidic (pH 4.0 to 5.0) when feed or feed ingredients were incubated for 24 h. Acidic conditions have been reported to injure or kill Salmonella. In this study, cultures of four known feed isolates (S. montevideo, S. senftenberg, S. tennessee, and S. schwarzengrund) and four important processing plant isolates (S. typhimurium, S. enteritidis, S. infantis, and S. heidelberg) were grown on meat and bone meal and later subjected to desiccation and heat exposure to stress the microorganism. The impact of stress on the isolates ability to survive in acidic conditions ranging from pH 4.0 to 7.0 was compared to the non-stressed isolate. Cell injury was determined on xylose lysine tergitol 4 (XLT4) and cell death determined on nutrient agar (NA). When measured by cell death in non-stressed Salmonella, S. typhimurium was the most acid tolerant and S. heidelberg was the most acid sensitive whereas in stressed Salmonella, S. senftenberg was the most acid tolerant and S. tennessee was the most acid sensitive. The pH required to cause cell injury varied among isolates. With some isolates, the pH required for 50% cell death and 50% cell injury was similar. In other isolates, cell injury occurred at a more neutral pH. These findings suggest that the pH of pre-enrichment media may influence the recovery and bias the serotype of Salmonella recovered from feed during pre-enrichment.