MANAGING THE COLORADO RIVER IN A SEVERE SUSTAINED DROUGHT AN EVALUATION OF INSTITUTIONAL OPTIONS1

ABSTRACT: This paper presents a summary of the findings and recommendations of the studies of severe, sustained drought reported in this special issue. The management facilities and institutions were found to be effective in protecting consumptive water users against drought, but much less effective in protecting nonconsumptive uses. Changes in intrastate water management were found to be effective in reducing the monetary value of damages, through reallocating shortages to low-valued uses, while only water banking and water marketing, among the possible interstate rule changes, were similarly effective. Players representing the basin states and the federal government in three gaming experiments were unable to agree upon and effect major changes in operating rules. The conclusions are (1) that nonconsumptive water uses are highly vulnerable to drought, (2) that consumptive uses are well-protected, (3) that drought risk is greatest in the Upper Basin, (4) that the Lower Basin suffers from chronic water shortage but bears little drought risk, (5) that opportunities exist for win-win rule changes, (6) that such rule changes are extremely difficult to make, and (7) that intrastate drought management is very effective ^m in reducing potential damages.     

Clean air with economic growth: Optimization modeling

Conflicts between the goals of having clean air and economic development are widespread. This paper discusses the conceptual and mathematical development of a linear programming optimization model and an interative solution procedure to determine optimal economic development strategies to promote employment subject to various contexts which limit air pollution carrying capacity. Three cases are formulated: (1) maximizing employment subject to ambient concentration constraints, (2) maximizing employment subject to emissions constraints, and (3) minimizing emissions subject to employment constraints. Empirical relationships using Census and pollutant inventory data describe a conceptual urban system, so that indirect and induced impacts of development strategies are also included. The modeling incorporates both point and nonpoint sources, and is shown to be adaptable for nonreactive emissions.     

An examination of community flood warning systems: Are we providing the right assistance?

The technology transfer of flood warning systems offers a large potential for reducing human losses and property damage in flood-prone regions; much of the technology and methodology is readily transferable from developed countries and “appropriate” for developing countries. This paper examines some community folk warning systems in the United States that could be incorporated into a rational strategy for technology transfer. It discusses why official organized systems should not be relied on completely and how participation in and transfer of highly cost-effective and reliable community warning systems by development assistance agencies could greatly benefit the people as well as the governments of developing countries.     

Real-world vehicle emissions: a summary of the Eleventh Coordinating Research Council On-Road Vehicle Emissions Workshop

The Coordinating Research Council (CRC) held its eleventh workshop in March 2001, focusing on results from the most recent real-world vehicle emissions research. We summarize the presentations from researchers engaged in improving our understanding of the contribution of mobile sources to ambient air quality and emission inventories. Participants in the workshop discussed efforts to improve mobile source emission models and emission inventories, the role of on-board diagnostic (OBD) systems in inspection and maintenance (I/M) programs, particulate matter (PM) emissions, contributions of diesel vehicles to the emission inventory, on-road emissions measurements, fuel effects, unregulated emissions, and microscale and modal emission models, as well as topics for future research.     

Cycling of volatile organic sulfur compounds in anaerobically digested biosolids and its implications for odors.

The objectives of this research were to elucidate the mechanisms for production and degradation of volatile organic sulfur compounds (VOSCs), key odor causing compounds produced by biosolids. These compounds included methanethiol (MT), dimethyl sulfide (DMS), and dimethyl disulfide (DMDS). A series of experiments were used to probe various pathways hypothesized to produce and degrade these VOSCs. The production of MT was found to mainly occur from degradation of methionine and the methylation of hydrogen sulfide. DMS was formed through the methylation of MT. DMDS was formed by MT oxidation. All three of the VOSCs were readily degraded by methanogens and a cyclic pathway was proposed to describe the production and degradation of VOSCs. The research demonstrated that the main source of VOSCs was the biodegradation of protein within the biosolids and the results provided a framework for understanding the production of odor from anaerobically digested sludges before and after dewatering.     

Particle size relationships at the Fresno Supersite

Aerosol size distributions are presented for a winter intensive study at the Fresno Supersite. The size distributions were consistent with and predictive for continuous PM2.5 measured by beta attenuation. They varied temporally with respect to source type and intensity, with the smallest mean diameters associated with high NOx concentrations during weekday morning rush hours. Conversely, small and large particle and black carbon (BC) concentrations were higher during Sunday and weekday evenings in response to traffic and residential wood combustion emissions. Ambient PM2.5 light scattering (Bsp) was precisely but systematically underestimated during winter, probably because of heating in the sample shelter.     

On the propagation of error in air pollution measurements

Four methods for estimating the uncertainties in air pollution measurements are outlined. The approaches are: analytical solution-approximation; application of distribution theory; experimentation; and simulation. The advantages and disadvantages of each method are illustrated using data from High-Volume air samplers, the instrument most commonly used for monitoring ambient concentrations of airborne particles.Dr Evans is Assistant Professor of Environmental Science and Mr Kinney is a doctoral candidate in the Department of Environmental Science and Physiology, Harvard School of Public Health. Dr Cooper is at the Manufacturing Research Laboratory, Thomas J. Watson Research Center, IBM, Yorktown Heights, NY.     

POLICIES FOR RESOLVING THE CLIMATE CHANGE AND THE STRATOSPHERIC OZONE DEPLETION ISSUES: ANTAGONISTIC OR RE-ENFORCING?

Unlike the past, anthropogenic activities have begun to have greaterand greater impact on the environment. Policy formulation is no longerconfined to just responding to an existing set of environmentalconditions, but involves taking into account how the decision mightaffect the original set of environmental conditions to which the originalpolicy was formulated as a response.We discuss how certain policies could be developed, using the resultsfrom two integrated scientific models which incorporate parametersreflecting two air issues: (1) climate change, and (2) stratospheric ozonedepletion. Model results suggest very clearly that these two air issuesare not scientifically independent from each other. Following asingle-issue policy would lead to inconsistencies and undesirableconsequences in other related issues. Thus, the policy decision processhas now become complex.One of the sources of this complexity is the uncertainty in the responseof the environmental system to certain policy decisions, complexityarising from the fact that the environmental system is highly nonlinearand evolving. Model results indicate that it is essential for the policyformulation process to be flexible enough to take into account thenonlinear evolutionary nature of the environmental system. A policymust reflect, and be tailored to, the dynamical history and present stateof the system, if it is to be effective in influencing the future evolution of the system.