Applied tracer tests in fractured rock: Can we predict natural gradient solute transport more accurately than fracture and matrix parameters?

Applied tracer tests provide a means to estimate aquifer parameters in fractured rock. The traditional approach to analysing these tests has been using a single fracture model to find the parameter values that generate the best fit to the measured breakthrough curve. In many cases, the ultimate aim is to predict solute transport under the natural gradient. Usually, no confidence limits are placed on parameter values and the impact of parameter errors on predictions of solute transport is not discussed. The assumption inherent in this approach is that the parameters determined under forced conditions will enable prediction of solute transport under the natural gradient. This paper considers the parameter and prediction uncertainty that might arise from analysis of breakthrough curves obtained from forced gradient applied tracer tests. By adding noise to an exact solution for transport in a single fracture in a porous matrix we create multiple realisations of an initial breakthrough curve. A least squares fitting routine is used to obtain a fit to each realisation, yielding a range of parameter values rather than a single set of absolute values. The suite of parameters is then used to make predictions of solute transport under lower hydraulic gradients and the uncertainty of estimated parameters and subsequent predictions of solute transport is compared. The results of this study show that predictions of breakthrough curve characteristics (first inflection point time, peak arrival time and peak concentration) for groundwater flow speeds with orders of magnitude smaller than that at which a test is conducted can sometimes be determined even more accurately than the fracture and matrix parameters.     

Radioactivity in trinitite six decades later

The first nuclear explosion test, named the Trinity test, was conducted on July 16, 1945 near Alamogordo, New Mexico. In the tremendous heat of the explosion, the radioactive debris fused with the local soil into a glassy material named Trinitite. Selected Trinitite samples from ground zero (GZ) of the test site were investigated in detail for radioactivity. The techniques used included alpha spectrometry, high-efficiency gamma-ray spectrometry, and low-background beta counting, following the radiochemistry for selected radionuclides. Specific activities were determined for fission products (90Sr, 137Cs), activation products (60Co, 133Ba, 152Eu, 154Eu, 238Pu, 241Pu), and the remnants of the nuclear fuel (239Pu, 240Pu). Additionally, specific activities of three natural radionuclides (40K, 232Th, 238U) and their progeny were measured. The determined specific activities of radionuclides and their relationships are interpreted in the context of the fission process, chemical behavior of the elements, as well as the nuclear explosion phenomenology.     

Protection from steam at high pressures: development of a test device and protocol.

Extensive use of pressurized steam in the oil and gas sectors has led to incidents where workers were seriously injured. In this study a test device and procedure to measure heat transfer through fabrics during steam exposure were developed and evaluated. Several factors were considered while designing the test device to simulate work site conditions. Fabrics were exposed to steam at 2 distances (50 and 100 mm) and 2 pressures (207 and 69 kPa). Theoretical considerations included heat and mass transfer, and fabric structure and performance properties. The test device and procedure differentiated well among both fabrics and exposure conditions. For all fabrics, maximum heat transfer was observed at highest steam pressure and shortest distance. Laminated and coated fabrics performed better than a fabric without such treatments.     

Dental fluorosis linked to degassing of Ambrym volcano, Vanuatu: a novel exposure pathway

Ambrym in Vanuatu is a persistently degassing island volcano whose inhabitants harvest rainwater for their potable water needs. The findings from this study indicate that dental fluorosis is prevalent in the population due to fluoride contamination of rainwater by the volcanic plume. A dental survey was undertaken of 835 children aged 6–18 years using the Dean’s Index of Fluorosis. Prevalence of dental fluorosis was found to be 96% in the target area of West Ambrym, 71% in North Ambrym, and 61% in Southeast Ambrym. This spatial distribution appears to reflect the prevailing winds and rainfall patterns on the island. Severe cases were predominantly in West Ambrym, the most arid part of the island, and the most commonly affected by the volcanic plume. Over 50 km downwind, on a portion of Malakula Island, the dental fluorosis prevalence was 85%, with 36% prevalence on Tongoa Island, an area rarely affected by volcanic emissions. Drinking water samples from West Ambrym contained fluoride levels from 0.7 to 9.5 ppm F (average 4.2 ppm F, n = 158) with 99% exceeding the recommended concentration of 1.0 ppm F. The pathway of fluoride-enriched rainwater impacting upon human health as identified in this study has not previously been recognised in the aetiology of fluorosis. This is an important consideration for populations in the vicinity of degassing volcanoes, particularly where rainwater comprises the primary potable water supply for humans or animals.     

Swidden agriculture in a protected area: the Matsigenka native communities of Manu National Park, Peru

In this study, we investigate whether traditional swidden agriculture on nutrient-poor tropical soils can sustainably support a growing indigenous population within Manu National Park, Peru. Based on interviews with 50 Matsigenka farmers, as well as GPS mapping and field visits, we established the location and size of all 124 swidden gardens cultivated in 2000 and 2001. Using a GIS-based soil map of Manu Park, we identify the total extent of potential arable land (1) throughout the park zones currently available for Matsigenka habitation, and (2) within the vicinity of the two study communities. Taking into account current per capita garden size, cultivation and fallow practices, we calculate the maximum human carrying capacity of swidden agriculture for (1) all available park zones and (2) the immediate vicinity of the two current communities. Even given the second, highly limited scenario, the sustainable human carrying capacity is estimated to be 2,138 individuals, which is far higher than the current population of about 420 people. Thus, arable land does not appear to be a limiting factor for the growth of the indigenous population in Manu Park at the current time. Other possible limiting factors for population growth are identified and discussed. We conclude that a conservation policy of population stabilization around the current settlements is viable in that it will not result in reduced resource availability over the next few decades, and that the challenge is to identify and mitigate the forces causing population fissioning and spread. Readers should send their comments on this paper to BhaskarNath@aol.com within 3 months of publication of this issue.     

Mediation support for forest land allocation: The SIRO-MED system

Mediation support systems for facilitating resolution of natural resources conflicts must be able to systematically identify and use a full complement of data and value sets relevant to the spectrum of issues underlying the conflict. A stepwise computer-supported procedure for developing and then blending contrasting issue-sensitive stakeholder plans in map form for forest use is described and demonstrated. The goal is a balanced plan that efficiently satisfies the more important land-use guidelines of each stakeholder reasonably well. This procedure, SIRO-MED, can be applied at any level of detail compatible with available analytical resources and to resources other than forests.     

SENSITIVITY OF GROUNDWATER FLOW MODELS TO VERTICAL VARIABILITY OF AQUIFER CONSTANTS1

ABSTRACT: The Ogallala aquifer in the Oklahoma Panhandle is in need of better management because of increased groundwater demand which has caused declines in static water levels at an alarming rate. A groundwater management computer model was developed for the Ogallala aquifer in the Texas Panhandle and treats the aquifer as a homogeneous system. In this study, the computer model has been modified in order to evaluate the effects of vertical layering on semi-static water level changes which occur during the dewatering of a single unconfined aquifer. The modified model was applied to a study area near Guymon, Oklahoma, using both the homogeneous and the multilayered cases. The aquifer is characterized by a saturated thickness of 400 feet. The accumulated drawdown values of the homogeneous and the multilayered cases demonstrate that an average difference of approximately 22% of the original saturated thickness occurs between the two cases before the base of the aquifer is encountered. Approximately 25% more time is required to dewater the layered aquifer. Thus, vertical variations of lithology in an aquifer such as the Ogallala should be considered when prediction is made relative to groundwater management.     

LAWS AND PROGRAMS FOR CONTROLLING NONPOINT SOURCE POLLUTION IN FOREST AREAS1

ABSTRACT: Recent federal legislation strengthened nonpoint source pollution regulations and helped to support and standardize pollution control efforts. A comprehensive review of current state and federal programs for forest areas reveals a substantial increase in agency water quality protection activities. These new efforts emphasize monitoring to assess the use and effectiveness of best management practices (BMPs). Recent monitoring reveals that BMP use is increasing and that such use typically maintains water quality within standards. However, information is generally lacking about the cost effectiveness of BMP programs. Carefully designed and executed monitoring is the key to better specification of BMPs and more cost effective water quality protection. (KEY TERMS: water quality; nonpoint source pollution; water law; watershed management; forestry; best management practices.)     

Environmental strategies: A case study of systematic evaluation

A major problem facing environmental managers is the necessity to effectively evaluate management alternatives. Traditional environmental assessments have emphasized the use of economic analyses. These approaches are often deficient due to difficulty in assigning dollar values to environmental systems and to social amenities. A more flexible decisionmaking model has been developed to analyze management options for coping with beach erosion problems at the Sandy Hook Unit of Gateway National Recreation Area in New Jersey. This model is comprised of decision-making variables which are formulated from a combination of environmental and management criteria, and it has an accept-reject format in which the management options are analyzed in terms of the variables. Through logical ordering of the insertion of the variables into the model, stepwise elimination of alternatives is possible. A hierarchy of variables is determined through estimating work required to complete an assessment of the alternatives for each variable. The assessment requiring the least work is performed first so that the more difficult evaluation will be limited to fewer alternatives. The application of this approach is illustrated with a case study in which beach protection alternatives were evaluated for the United States National Park Service.Portions of this paper have been excerpted from Sherman and Garès (1978).     

A SYSTEM FOR EVALUATING SCENIC RIVERS1

ABSTRACT. A system is presented for evaluating streams for inclusion in “scenic river” systems. Rating criteria are proposed which are objective and pertinent to recreational, scenic and natural qualities of the river and its banks. The critieria should also be selected for simplicity and economy in application. Numerical ratings of eight criteria are shown for Indiana conditions. These were applied to streams meeting minimum qualifications. The rating criteria are measures of bank vegetation, stream course alterations, man-made structures and roads near and across the river, aesthetic quality of the water, and special natural features.