Critical Steps for Continuing Advancement of Satellite Rainfall Applications for Surface Hydrology in the Nile River Basin1

Gebremichael, Mekonnen, Emmanouil N. Anagnostou, and Menberu M. Bitew, 2010. Critical Steps for Continuing Advancement of Satellite Rainfall Applications for Surface Hydrology in the Nile River Basin. Journal of the American Water Resources Association (JAWRA) 46(2):361-366. DOI: 10.1111/j.1752-1688.2010.00428.x. Abstract: Given the increasingly higher resolution and data accessibility, satellite precipitation products could be useful for hydrological application in the Nile River Basin, which is characterized by lack of reasonably dense hydrological in situ sensors and lack of access to the existing dataset. However, in the absence of both extreme caution and research results for the Nile basin, the satellite rainfall (SR) products may not be used, or may even be used erroneously. We identify two steps that are critical to enhance the value of SR products for hydrological applications in the Nile basin. The first step is to establish representative validation sites in the Nile basin. The validation site will help to quantify the errors in the different kinds of SR products, which will be used to select the best products for the Nile basin, include the errors in decision making, and design strategies to minimize the errors. Using rainfall measurements collected from the unprecedented high-density rain gauge network over a small region within the Nile basin, we indicate that SR estimates could be subject to significant errors, and quantification of estimation errors by way of establishing validation sites is critically important in order to use the SR products. The second step is to identify the degree of hydrologic model complexity required to obtain more accurate hydrologic simulation results for the Nile basin when using SR products as input. The level of model complexity may depend on basin size and SR algorithm, and further research is needed to spell out this dependence for the Nile basin.     

Variation in biogenic volatile organic compound emission pattern of Fagus sylvatica L. due to aphid infection

Volatile organic compounds (VOCs) have been the focus of interest to understand atmospheric processes and their consequences in formation of ozone or aerosol particles; therefore, VOCs contribute to climate change. In this study, biogenic VOCs (BVOCs) emitted from Fagus sylvatica L. trees were measured in a dynamic enclosure system. In total 18 compounds were identified: 11 monoterpenes (MT), an oxygenated MT, a homoterpene (C₁₄H₁₈), 3 sesquiterpenes (SQT), isoprene and methyl salicylate. The frequency distribution of the compounds was tested to determine a relation with the presence of the aphid Phyllaphis fagi L. It was found that linalool, (E)-β-ocimene, α-farnesene and a homoterpene identified as (E)-4,8-dimethyl-1,3,7-nonatriene (DMNT), were present in significantly more samples when infection was present on the trees. The observed emission spectrum from F. sylvatica L. shifted from MT to linalool, α-farnesene, (E)-β-ocimene and DMNT due to the aphid infection. Sabinene was quantitatively the most prevalent compound in both, non-infected and infected samples. In the presence of aphids α-farnesene and linalool became the second and third most important BVOC emitted. According to our investigation, the emission fingerprint is expected to be more complex than commonly presumed.     

Simulating the fine and coarse inorganic particulate matter concentrations in a polluted megacity

A three dimensional chemical transport model (PMCAMx) is applied to the Mexico City Metropolitan Area (MCMA) in order to simulate the chemical composition and mass of the major PM₁ (fine) and PM_1–10 (coarse) inorganic components and determine the effect of mineral dust on their formation. The aerosol thermodynamic model ISORROPIA-II is used to explicitly simulate the effect of Ca, Mg, and K from dust on semi-volatile partitioning and water uptake. The hybrid approach is applied to simulate the inorganic components, assuming that the smallest particles are in thermodynamic equilibrium, while describing the mass transfer to and from the larger ones. The official MCMA 2004 emissions inventory with improved dust and NaCl emissions is used. The comparison between the model predictions and measurements during a week of April of 2003 at Centro Nacional de Investigacion y Capacitacion Ambiental (CENICA) “Supersite” shows that the model reproduces reasonably well the fine mode composition and its diurnal variation. Sulfate predicted levels are relatively uniform in the area (approximately 3 μg m^?3), while ammonium nitrate peaks in Mexico City (approximately 7 μg m^?3) and its concentration rapidly decreases due to dilution and evaporation away from the urban area. In areas of high dust concentrations, the associated alkalinity is predicted to increase the concentration of nitrate, chloride and ammonium in the coarse mode by up to 2 μg m^?3 (a factor of 10), 0.4 μg m^?3, and 0.6 μg m^?3 (75%), respectively. The predicted ammonium nitrate levels inside Mexico City for this period are sensitive to the physical state (solid versus liquid) of the particles during periods with RH less than 50%.     

Equilibration time scales of organic aerosol inside thermodenuders: Evaporation kinetics versus thermodynamics

The interpretation of thermodenuder (TD) data often relies on the assumption that thermodynamic equilibrium is reached inside the instrument. We modeled the evaporation of three organic aerosol types (adipic acid, α-pinene SOA and aged OA) inside a thermodenuder with a mass transfer model, and calculated equilibration time scales for these systems at realistic conditions. The equilibrium times varied from less than a second to several hours, decreasing with increasing aerosol concentrations, decreasing particle sizes, decreasing volatilities and increasing mass accommodation coefficients. The results indicate that generally TDs measure particle evaporation rates rather than equilibria, and time-dependent modeling of the evaporation is usually needed to interpret the data. Measurements at varying residence times and temperatures, on the other hand, are desirable to investigate the equilibration of the studied aerosol and decouple the kinetic effects from the effects caused by the thermodynamic properties of the aerosol. Organic aerosol is likely to be further from equilibrium under typical field conditions compared with laboratory data. When determining the aerosol properties from TD data, assuming incorrectly equilibrium results in under-prediction of the vaporization enthalpy of the evaporating species. Similar under-estimation is predicted if multicomponent aerosols are approximated with single-component properties.     

Ambient TSP concentration and dustfall in major cities of China: Spatial distribution and temporal variability

Based on environmental monitoring data in 93 major cities and meteorological records at 398 weather stations in China from 1981 to 2007, total suspended particle (TSP) concentration, the intensity of dustfall, and sand and dust storm frequency (F_d) were analysed. During the past 27 years, the annual average TSP concentration (C_TSP) in 93 cities was 402 μg m^?3. Annual average C_TSP decreased from the north to the south and from inland to the coast areas with a peak value of 628.8 μg m^?3 in Lanzhou. In the 1980s, 1990s and 2000s, annual average C_TSP was 628.7, 319.2, and 250.1 μg m^?3, respectively. Annual average intensity of dustfall (I_d) was 240.5 t km^?2 a^?1, decreased from northern to southern China and from inland to the coast areas with the maximum value of 717.2 t km^?2 a^?1 in Baotou. In the 1980s, 1990s and 2000s, annual average I_d was 334.8, 220.9, 146 t km^?2 a^?1 respectively. Annual average I_d in the Loess Plateau region was commonly higher than 200 t km^?2 a^?1. The annual average F_d decreased from arid regions in northwestern China to humid areas in southeastern China with two sand and sand storm centers existing in Xinjiang Taklamakan Desert and western Inner Mongolia. The annual average F_d in the 1980s, 1990s, 2000s was 16, 8, 6 days respectively, decreased steadily from 18 days in 1981–5 days in 2007. Annual average I_d had a positive linear relation to annual average C_TSP (R² = 0.96). Annual average F_d had a positive relation with annual average C_TSP (R² = 0.97) as well as annual average I_d (R² = 0.94). TSP was the chief pollutant influencing Air Pollution Index (API) in northern China in spring and winter seasons. Sand and dust storm might be a major factor affecting the temporal variability and spatial distribution of TSP and dustfall in China.     

Dealing with disjunct concentration measurements in eddy covariance applications: A comparison of available approaches

Using proton transfer reaction mass spectrometry equipped with a quadrupol mass analyser to quantify the biosphere-atmosphere exchange of volatile organic compounds (VOC), concentrations of different VOC are measured sequentially. Depending on how many VOC species are targeted and their respective integration times, each VOC is measured at repeat rates on the order of a few seconds. This represents an order of magnitude longer sample interval compared to the standard eddy covariance (EC) method (5–20 Hz sampling rates). Here we simulate the effect of disjunct sampling on EC flux estimates by decreasing the time resolution of CO₂ and H₂O concentrations measured at 20 Hz above a temperate mountain grassland in the Austrian Alps. Fluxes for one month are calculated with the standard EC method and compared to fluxes calculated based on the disjunct data (1, 3 and 5 s sampling rates) using the following approaches: i) imputation of missing concentrations based on the nearest neighbouring samples (iDEC_nn), ii) imputation by linear interpolation (iDEC_li), and iii) virtual disjunct EC (vDEC), i.e. flux calculation based solely on the disjunct concentrations. It is shown that the two imputation methods result in additional low-pass filtering, longer lag times (as determined with the maximum cross-correlation method) and a flux loss of 3–30% as compared to the standard EC method. A novel procedure, based on a transfer function approach, which specifically corrects for the effect of data treatment, was developed, resulting in improved correspondence (to within 2%). The vDEC method yields fluxes which approximate the true (20 Hz) fluxes to within 3–7% and it is this approach we recommend because it involves no additional empirical corrections. The only drawback of the vDEC method is the noisy nature of the cross-correlations, which poses problems with lag determination – practical approaches to overcome this limitation are discussed.     

Uncertainty in health risks due to anthropogenic primary fine particulate matter from different source types in Finland

The emission-exposure and exposure-response (toxicity) relationships are different for different emission source categories of anthropogenic primary fine particulate matter (PM_2.5). These variations have a potentially crucial importance in the integrated assessment, when determining cost-effective abatement strategies. We studied the importance of these variations by conducting a sensitivity analysis for an integrated assessment model. The model was developed to estimate the adverse health effects to the Finnish population attributable to primary PM_2.5 emissions from the whole of Europe. The primary PM_2.5 emissions in the whole of Europe and in more detail in Finland were evaluated using the inventory of the European Monitoring and Evaluation Programme (EMEP) and the Finnish Regional Emission Scenario model (FRES), respectively. The emission-exposure relationships for different primary PM_2.5 emission source categories in Finland have been previously evaluated and these values incorporated as intake fractions into the integrated assessment model. The primary PM_2.5 exposure-response functions and toxicity differences for the pollution originating from different source categories were estimated in an expert elicitation study performed by six European experts on air pollution health effects. The primary PM_2.5 emissions from Finnish and other European sources were estimated for the population of Finland in 2000 to be responsible for 209 (mean, 95% confidence interval 6–739) and 357 (mean, 95% CI 8–1482) premature deaths, respectively. The inclusion of emission-exposure and toxicity variation into the model increased the predicted relative importance of traffic related primary PM_2.5 emissions and correspondingly, decreased the predicted relative importance of other emission source categories. We conclude that the variations of emission-exposure relationship and toxicity between various source categories had significant impacts for the assessment on premature deaths caused by primary PM_2.5.     

Social and ecological facets of pest management in Honduran subsistence agriculture: implications for IPM extension and natural resource management

In subsistence farming systems of the developing world, adoption of resource-conserving practices such as integrated pest management (IPM) is often strikingly low. This has partially been ascribed to researchers’ limited understanding of how technologies develop at the interface of the systems’ social and ecological components. In Honduras (Central America), there exists concern about limited adoption and diffusion of IPM technologies in certain smallholder production systems. In this study, we determine social and ecological drivers of IPM adoption in subsistence maize production in the country’s hillside environment. Honduran small-scale maize production is typified by a key insect pest (the fall armyworm, Spodoptera frugiperda) being partly kept at bay through action of a diverse natural enemy complex, including ants, social wasps, carabid beetles, and spiders. Local agricultural landscapes, primarily shaped through shifting cultivation, provide key resources to maintain this natural enemy diversity. These local ecological conditions and related natural enemy abundance strongly influence farmers’ agroecological knowledge and pest management practices. In the meantime, farmer practices are also affected by local communication networks, which help validate and spread IPM concepts and technologies. Based on our findings, we advocate a holistic approach to improve IPM extension through mapping of agroecological opportunities, visualization of regional patterns in farmer knowledge, and associated priority setting. Local IPM capacity could be built through institutional strengthening and adaptive comanagement, while IPM training should be linked with natural resource management initiatives. These approaches may eventually improve the way IPM is delivered to small-scale farmers who operate in the ecologically diverse environments of the tropics.     

Sea-level rise vulnerability in the countries of the Coral Triangle

Sea-level rise is a major threat facing the Coral Triangle countries in the twenty-first century. Assessments of vulnerability and adaptation that consider the interactions among natural and social systems are critical to identifying habitats and communities vulnerable to sea-level rise and for supporting the development of adaptation strategies. This paper presents such an assessment using the DIVA model and identifies vulnerable coastal regions and habitats in Coral Triangle countries at national and sub-national levels (administrative provinces). The following four main sea-level rise impacts are assessed in ecological, social and economic terms over the twenty-first century: (1) coastal wetland change, (2) increased coastal flooding, (3) increased coastal erosion, and (4) saltwater intrusion into estuaries and deltas. The results suggest that sea-level rise will significantly affect coastal regions and habitats in the Coral Triangle countries, but the impacts will differ across the region in terms of people flooded annually, coastal wetland change and loss, and damage and adaptation costs. Indonesia is projected to be most affected by coastal flooding, with nearly 5.9 million people expected to experience flooding annually in 2100 assuming no adaptation. However, if adaptation is considered, this number is significantly reduced. By the end of the century, coastal wetland loss is most significant for Indonesia in terms of total area lost, but the Solomon Islands are projected to experience the greatest relative loss of coastal wetlands. Damage costs associated with sea-level rise are highest in the Philippines (US $6.5 billion/year) and lowest in the Solomon Islands (US $70,000/year). Adaptation is estimated to reduce damage costs significantly, in particular for the Philippines, Indonesia, and Malaysia (between 68 and 99%). These results suggest that the impacts of sea-level rise are likely to be widespread in the region and adaptation measures must be broadly applied.