Regional differentiation and post-glacial expansion of the Atlantic silverside, <Emphasis Type="Italic">Menidia menidia,</Emphasis> an annual fish with high dispersal potential

The coastal marine environment of the Northwest Atlantic contains strong environmental gradients that create distinct marine biogeographic provinces by limiting dispersal, recruitment, and survival. This region has also been subjected to numerous Pleistocene glacial cycles, resulting in repeated extirpations and recolonizations in northern populations of marine organisms. In this study, we examined patterns of genetic structure and historical demography in the Atlantic silverside, Menidia menidia, an annual marine fish with high dispersal potential but with well-documented patterns of clinal phenotypic adaptation along the environmental gradients of the Northwest Atlantic. Contrary to previous studies indicating genetic homogeneity that should preclude regional adaptation, results demonstrate subtle but significant (F _ST = 0.07; P < 0.0001) genetic structure among three phylogeographic regions that partially correspond with biogeographic provinces, suggesting regional limits to gene flow. Tests for non-equilibrium population dynamics and latitudinal patterns in genetic diversity indicate northward population expansion from a single southern refugium following the last glacial maximum, suggesting that phylogeographic and phenotypic patterns have relatively recent origins. The recovery of phylogeographic structure and the partial correspondence of these regions to recognized biogeographic provinces suggest that the environmental gradients that shape biogeographic patterns in the Northwest Atlantic may also limit gene flow in M. menidia, creating phylogeographic structure and contributing to the creation of latitudinal phenotypic clines in this species.     

Science, Policy, and Stakeholders: Developing a Consensus Science Plan for Amchitka Island, Aleutians, Alaska

With the ending of the Cold War, the US Department of Energy is responsible for the remediation of radioactive waste and disposal of land no longer needed for nuclear material production or related national security missions. The task of characterizing the hazards and risks from radionuclides is necessary for assuring the protection of health of humans and the environment. This is a particularly daunting task for those sites that had underground testing of nuclear weapons, where the radioactive contamination is currently inaccessible. Herein we report on the development of a Science Plan to characterize the physical and biological marine environment around Amchitka Island in the Aleutian chain of Alaska, where three underground nuclear tests were conducted (1965–1971). Information on the ecology, geology, and current radionuclide levels in biota, water, and sediment is necessary for evaluating possible current contamination and to serve as a baseline for developing a plan to ensure human and ecosystem health in perpetuity. Other information required includes identifying the location of the salt water/fresh water interface where migration to the ocean might occur in the future and determining groundwater recharge balances, as well as assessing other physical/geological features of Amchitka near the test sites. The Science Plan is needed to address the confusing and conflicting information available to the public about radionuclide risks from underground nuclear blasts in the late 1960s and early 1970s, as well as the potential for volcanic or seismic activity to disrupt shot cavities or accelerate migration of radionuclides into the sea. Developing a Science Plan involved agreement among regulators and other stakeholders, assignment of the task to the Consortium for Risk Evaluation with Stakeholder Participation, and development of a consensus Science Plan that dealt with contentious scientific issues. Involvement of the regulators (State of Alaska), resource trustees (U S Fish and Wildlife Service), representatives of the Aleut and Pribilof Island communities, and other stakeholders was essential for plan development and approval, although this created tensions because of the different objectives of each group. The complicated process of developing a Science Plan involved iterations and interactions with multiple agencies and organizations, scientists in several disciplines, regulators, and the participation of Aleut people in their home communities, as well as the general public. The importance of including all parties in all phases of the development of the Science Plan was critical to its acceptance by a broad range of regulators, agencies, resource trustees, Aleutian/Pribilof communities, and other stakeholders.     

Predicting fish diet composition using a bagged classification tree approach: a case study using yellowfin tuna (<Emphasis Type="Italic">Thunnus albacares</Emphasis>)

We provided a classification tree modeling framework for investigating complex feeding relationships and illustrated the method using stomach contents data for yellowfin tuna (Thunnus albacares) collected by longline fishing gear deployed off eastern Australia between 1992 and 2006. The non-parametric method is both exploratory and predictive, can be applied to varying size datasets and therefore is not restricted to a minimum sample size. The method uses a bootstrap approach to provide standard errors of predicted prey proportions, variable importance measures to highlight important variables and partial dependence plots to explore the relationships between explanatory variables and predicted prey composition. Our results supported previous studies of yellowfin tuna feeding ecology in the region. However, the method provided a number of novel insights. For example, significant differences were noted in the prey of yellowfin tuna sampled north of 20°S in summer where oligotrophic waters dominate. The analysis also identified that sea-surface temperature, latitude and yellowfin size were the most important variables associated with dietary differences. The methodology is appropriate for delineating ecosystem-level trophic dynamics, as it can easily incorporate large datasets comprising multiple predators to explore trophic interactions among members of a community. Broad-scale relationships among explanatory variables (environmental, biological, temporal and spatial) and prey composition elucidated by this method then serve to focus and lend validity to subsequent fine-scale analyses of important parameters using standard diet methods and chemical tracers such as stable isotopes.     

Impact of climate change and seasonal trends on the fate of Arctic oil spills

We investigated the effects of a warmer climate, and seasonal trends, on the fate of oil spilled in the Arctic. Three well blowout scenarios, two shipping accidents and a pipeline rupture were considered. We used ensembles of numerical simulations, using the OSCAR oil spill model, with environmental data for the periods 2009–2012 and 2050–2053 (representing a warmer future) as inputs to the model. Future atmospheric forcing was based on the IPCC’s A1B scenario, with the ocean data generated by the hydrodynamic model SINMOD. We found differences in “typical” outcome of a spill in a warmer future compared to the present, mainly due to a longer season of open water. We have demonstrated that ice cover is extremely important for predicting the fate of an Arctic oil spill, and find that oil spills in a warming climate will in some cases result in greater areal coverage and shoreline exposure.     

Merit pay raises and organization‐based self‐esteem

We developed and tested a theory of the relationship between merit pay raises and organization‐based self‐esteem (OBSE) in a longitudinal study of hospital employees. We predicted that the positive relationship between merit pay raise size and OBSE would be stronger when pay‐for‐performance (PFP) perceptions were high and predicted further that this interaction would be stronger among older employees. As predicted, merit pay raises were not related to OBSE levels for younger employees, but, among older employees, larger merit raises increased OBSE when PFP perceptions were high and decreased OBSE when PFP perceptions were low. Implications of the study for merit pay theory and practice are addressed. Copyright © 2008 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Cement and concrete flow analysis in a rapidly expanding economy: Ireland as a case study

A national material flow model for concrete, the most popular construction material in Ireland, was developed based on the framework of material flow analysis. Using this model the Irish concrete cycle for the year 2007 was constructed by analysing the material life cycle of concrete which consists of the three phases of: production (including extraction of raw materials and manufacture of cement), usage (ready-mix and other products) and waste management (disposal or recovery). In this year, approximately 35 million metric tonnes of raw materials were consumed to produce 5 million metric tonnes of cement and 33 million metric tonnes of concrete. Concrete production was approximately 8 metric tonnes per capita. By comparison, the concrete waste produced in that year was minimal at only 0.3 million metric tonnes. Irish building stock is young and there was little demolition of structures in the year of study. However this build up of construction stock will have implications for the future waste flows when the majority of stock built in the last decade (43% of residential stock was constructed in the last 15 years) reaches its end of life.     

Warmer does not have to mean sicker: temperature and predators can jointly drive timing of epidemics

Ecologists and epidemiologists worry that global warming will increase disease prevalence. These fears arise because several direct and indirect mechanisms link warming to disease, and because parasite outbreaks are increasing in many taxa. However, this outcome is not a foregone conclusion, as physiological and community-interaction-based mechanisms may inhibit epidemics at warmer temperatures. Here, we explore this thermal-community-ecology-based mechanism, centering on fish predators that selectively prey upon Daphnia infected with a fungal parasite. We used an interplay between a simple model built around this system's biology and laboratory experiments designed to parameterize the model. Through this data-model interaction, we found that a given density of predators can inhibit epidemics as temperatures rise when thermal physiology of the predator scales more steeply than that of the host. This case is met in our fish-Daphnia-fungus system. Furthermore, the combination of steeply scaling parasite physiology and predation-induced mortality can inhibit epidemics at lower temperatures. This effect may terminate fungal epidemics of Daphnia as lakes cool in autumn. Thus, predation and physiology could constrain epidemics to intermediate temperatures (a pattern that we see in our system). More generally, these results accentuate the possibility that warmer temperatures might actually enhance predator control of parasites.