A COMPARISON OF DELTA CHANGE AND DOWNSCALED GCM SCENARIOS FOR THREE MOUNTAINOUS BASINS IN THE UNITED STATES1

ABSTRACT: Simulated daily precipitation, temperature, and runoff time series were compared in three mountainous basins in the United States: (1) the Animas River basin in Colorado, (2) the East Fork of the Carson River basin in Nevada and California, and (3) the Cle Elum River basin in Washington State. Two methods of climate scenario generation were compared: delta change and statistical downscaling. The delta change method uses differences between simulated current and future climate conditions from the Hadley Centre for Climate Prediction and Research (HadCM2) General Circulation Model (GCM) added to observed time series of climate variables. A statistical downscaling (SDS) model was developed for each basin using station data and output from the National Center for Environmental Prediction/National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCEPINCAR) reanalysis regridded to the scale of HadCM2. The SDS model was then used to simulate local climate variables using HadCM2 output for current and future conditions. Surface climate variables from each scenario were used in a precipitation‐runoff model. Results from this study show that, in the basins tested, a precipitation‐runoff model can simulate realistic runoff series for current conditions using statistically down‐scaled NCEP output. But, use of downscaled HadCM2 output for current or future climate assessments are questionable because the GCM does not produce accurate estimates of the surface variables needed for runoff in these regions. Given the uncertainties in the GCMs ability to simulate current conditions based on either the delta change or downscaling approaches, future climate assessments based on either of these approaches must be treated with caution.     

Environmental epidemiology forward

Environmental epidemiology is the specialized aspect of public health science that studies human health risk from environmental hazards. It is rises largely upon a foundation of public health surveillance, and relies heavily upon analyses of data for small areas and sparse population groups. To a degree, environmental epidemiology is assigned the role of discerning very subtle human health impacts, or discerning early evidence of a tragic sequence. In that context, environmental epidemiology has a substantial public education and risk communication role. Environmental epidemiology will be greatly advanced as effective biological markers of exposure and precursor health effects are developed. At this point in time, statistical methods are in place to monitor population-level disease rates in high-risk populations for early risk identification and sentinel event recognition. Advances in geographic methods have provided a boon to the discipline by advantaging spatial studies. These advances in the discipline still need further refinement and pilot experiences. The inclusion of environmental epidemiological considerations with instances of proposed industrial expansion, hazardous waste management, and contamination remediation is heartily recommended.     

Manganese-oxidizing fungi and bacteria

The Science of Nature -     

IR- und1H-Kernresonanzmessungen an InO(OH)

The Science of Nature -     

Governance in vulnerability assessment: the role of globalising decision-making networks in determining local vulnerability and adaptive capacity

Community-based vulnerability assessment has often assumed that the local is the relevant level of adaptation to climate change. This paper suggests that not only do a number of levels from the international to the regional influence which adaptations can take place locally, but the governance network that is made up by actors on different levels may to a large extent be formed in responses to globalising factors, such as internationalisation of economies and the changing role of the state. The paper presents a study of adaptation in reindeer (Rangifier tarandus) herding, forestry and fishing communities in northern Norway, Sweden, and Finland, with a focus on assessing stakeholders’ own perceptions of environmental, socio-political and economic factors that affect them. In general, the paper illustrates the integration of non-subsistence economies into large and complex interactions where local adaptation is a result of the sum of stresses impacting individual entrepreneurs, and the potential they have to adapt their practices given governance (and their access to support) on different scales.