RUNOFF SIMULATION USING RADAR RAINFALL DATA1

ABSTRACT: Rainfall data products generated with the national network of WSR-88D radars are an important new data source provided by the National Weather Service. Radar-based data include rainfall depth on an hourly basis for grid cells that are nominally 4 km square. The availability of such data enables application of improved techniques for rainfall-runoff simulation. A simple quasi-distributed approach that applies a linear runoff transform to grid-ded rainfall excess has been developed. The approach is an adaptation of the Clark conceptual runoff model, which employs translation and linear storage. Data development for, and results of, an initial application to a 4160 km² watershed in the Midwestern U.S. are illustrated.     

Prenatal diagnosis of Dandy-Walker malformation in a family displaying X-linked inheritance

The diagnosis of Dandy-Walker malformation was made on the ultrasonographic evaluation of a 33-week male fetus. Pedigree analysis revealed a family history of isolated Dandy-Walker malformation in three other males, suggesting an X-linked recessive inheritance pattern.     

Site-selection bias and apparent population declines in long-term studies

Detecting population declines is a critical task for conservation biology. Logistical difficulties and the spatiotemporal variability of populations make estimation of population declines difficult. For statistical reasons, estimates of population decline may be biased when study sites are chosen based on abundance of the focal species. In this situation, apparent population declines are likely to be detected even if there is no decline. This site-selection bias is mentioned in the literature but is not well known. We used simulations and real population data to examine the effects of site-selection biases on inferences about population trends. We used a left-censoring method to detect population-size patterns consistent with site-selection bias. The site-selection bias is an important consideration for conservation biologists, and we offer suggestions for minimizing or mitigating it in study design and analysis. Article impact statement: Estimates of population declines are biased if studies begin in large populations, and time-series data show a signature of such an effect.     

Effects of cigarette and biomass smoke exposure on oxidant–antioxidant status in rabbits

To evaluate the effects of cigarette smoking and biomass (dried dung) smoke on the oxidant–antioxidant status, three groups each with 5 rabbits were used. Groups of rabbits were exposed to either cigarette smoke, dried dung smoke or dry air, 1?h daily for one month. Protein carbonyls, prostaglandin F_2α and malondialdehyde levels were significantly increased and protein sulfhydryls levels were significantly decreased in the cigarette smoke group compared with the control group. Only protein sulfhydryls levels were significantly decreased in dung group compared with the control group. Short course exposure to both cigarette smoke and biomass smoke decreased plasma antioxidant levels but only cigarette smoke increased plasma oxidant levels, whereas biomass smoke did not produce any change.     

Temporal limitations in the use of potassium dichromate as a blood preservative for the analysis of organohalogenated contaminants including polybrominated diphenyl ethers,dioxins and PCBs

Previous studies described the use of potassium dichromate (K₂Cr₂O₇) to successfully preserve whole blood for up to 34 days at room temperature (20–22°C) for analysis of chlorinated dioxins, dibenzofurans and PCBs. Potassium dichromate has been successfully employed as a preservative for cows’ milk and in a World Health Organization study of human milk. The use of two 100?mg tablets in 40 to 100?mL of whole blood in anticoagulant was found to provide almost identical levels of dioxins, dibenzofurans, PCBs and lipids as found in frozen comparison blood at??70°C which is generally regarded as the gold standard for blood preservation. Potassium dichromate was found to be preferable to 20 and 40% ethyl alcohol for this preservation. This finding opens opportunities for preservation under field conditions in developing countries where neither electricity nor dry ice is available. Not having to use dry ice for shipping also allows more flexibility in the choice of commercial carriers for transporting blood to an analytical laboratory. It is recommended considering a number of compounds in addition to those studied in our first report and extending the time beyond 34 days in order to determine if longer storage might also be feasible. Data on polybrominated diphenyl ethers (PBDEs), as well as polychlorinated dibenzo-p-dioxins (PCDDs), polychlorinated dibenzofurans (PCDFs), and selected polychlorinated biphenyls (PCBs) are reported. For the present study 3 and 6 months were chosen in potassium dichromate at room temperature compared to freezing at ?70°C. Data indicate that these times exceed the limits of efficacy of potassium dichromate for whole blood preservation. This was attributed to degradation of the lipid component of the blood. Since dioxins and closely related structural analogues are traditionally reported as lipid normalized blood levels, this degradation of lipids provides erroneous results. Therefore, potassium dichromate is not recommended for long-term storage beyond 34 days at room temperature. It is planned to study the time period between one and three months and higher temperature preservation for shorter time periods, simulating conditions in tropical countries, to attempt to extend further the ease and convenience of chemical preservation of blood.     

Consensus Seasonal Flood Forecasts and Warning Response System (FFWRS): An Alternate for Nonstructural Flood Management in Bangladesh

Despite advances in short-range flood forecasting and information dissemination systems in Bangladesh, the present system is less than satisfactory. This is because of short lead-time products, outdated dissemination networks, and lack of direct feedback from the end-user. One viable solution is to produce long-lead seasonal forecasts—the demand for which is significantly increasing in Bangladesh—and disseminate these products through the appropriate channels. As observed in other regions, the success of seasonal forecasts, in contrast to short-term forecast, depends on consensus among the participating institutions. The Flood Forecasting and Warning Response System (henceforth, FFWRS) has been found to be an important component in a comprehensive and participatory approach to seasonal flood management. A general consensus in producing seasonal forecasts can thus be achieved by enhancing the existing FFWRS. Therefore, the primary objective of this paper is to revisit and modify the framework of an ideal warning response system for issuance of consensus seasonal flood forecasts in Bangladesh. The five-stage FFWRS—i) Flood forecasting, ii) Forecast interpretation and message formulation, iii) Warning preparation and dissemination, iv) Responses, and v) Review and analysis—has been modified. To apply the concept of consensus forecast, a framework similar to that of the Southern African Regional Climate Outlook Forum (SARCOF) has been discussed. Finally, the need for a climate Outlook Fora has been emphasized for a comprehensive and participatory approach to seasonal flood hazard management in Bangladesh.     

Agricultural BMP Effectiveness and Dominant Hydrological Flow Paths: Concepts and a Review

We present a conceptual framework that relates agricultural best management practice (BMP) effectiveness with dominant hydrological flow paths to improve nonpoint source (NPS) pollution management. We use the framework to analyze plot, field and watershed scale published studies on BMP effectiveness to develop transferable recommendations for BMP selection and placement at the watershed scale. The framework is based on the location of the restrictive layer in the soil profile and distinguishes three hydrologic land types. Hydrologic land type A has the restrictive layer at the surface and BMPs that increase infiltration are effective. In land type B1, the surface soil has an infiltration rate greater than the prevailing precipitation intensity, but there is a shallow restrictive layer causing lateral flow and saturation excess overland flow. Few structural practices are effective for these land types, but pollutant source management plans can significantly reduce pollutant loading. Hydrologic land type B2 has deep, well‐draining soils without restrictive layers that transport pollutants to groundwater via percolation. Practices that increased pollutant residence time in the mixing layer or increased plant water uptake were found as the most effective BMPs in B2 land types. Matching BMPs to the appropriate land type allows for better targeting of hydrologically sensitive areas within a watershed, and potentially more significant reductions of NPS pollutant loading.     

Assessing BMP Effectiveness and Guiding BMP Planning Using Process‐Based Modeling

There is an increasing need for improved process‐based planning tools to assist watershed managers in the selection and placement of effective best management practices (BMPs). In this article, we present an approach, based on the Water Erosion Prediction Project model and a pesticide transport model, to identify dominant hydrologic flow paths and critical source areas for a variety of pollutant types. We use this approach to compare the relative impacts of BMPs on hydrology, erosion, sediment, and pollutant delivery within different landscapes. Specifically, we focus on using this approach to understand what factors promoted and/or hindered BMP effectiveness at three Conservation Effects Assessment Project watersheds: Paradise Creek Watershed in Idaho, Walnut Creek Watershed in Iowa, and Goodwater Creek Experimental Watershed in Missouri. These watersheds were first broken down into unique land types based on soil and topographic characteristics. We used the model to assess BMP effectiveness in each of these land types. This simple process‐based modeling approach provided valuable insights that are not generally available to planners when selecting and locating BMPs and helped explain fundamental reasons why long‐term improvement in water quality of these three watersheds has yet to be completely realized.     

Streamflow Responses to Climate Change: Analysis of Hydrologic Indicators in a New York City Water Supply Watershed

Recent works have indicated that climate change in the northeastern United States is already being observed in the form of shorter winters, higher annual average air temperature, and more frequent extreme heat and precipitation events. These changes could have profound effects on aquatic ecosystems, and the implications of such changes are less understood. The objective of this study was to examine how future changes in precipitation and temperature translate into changes in streamflow using a physically based semidistributed model, and subsequently how changes in streamflow could potentially impact stream ecology. Streamflow parameters were examined in a New York City water supply watershed for changes from model‐simulated baseline conditions to future climate scenarios (2081‐2100) for ecologically relevant factors of streamflow using the Indicators of Hydrologic Alterations tool. Results indicate that earlier snowmelt and reduced snowpack advance the timing and increase the magnitude of discharge in the winter and early spring (November‐March) and greatly decrease monthly streamflow later in the spring in April. Both the rise and fall rates of the hydrograph will increase resulting in increased flashiness and flow reversals primarily due to increased pulses during winter seasons. These shifts in timing of peak flows, changes in seasonal flow regimes, and changes in the magnitudes of low flow can all influence aquatic organisms and have the potential to impact stream ecology.