The development of a method to determine the burden of climate change on different health outcomes at a local scale: a case study in Osaka Prefecture,Japan

Climate change impacts human health in a variety of ways. Variables including the climate-related risk factor, the health outcome and location all determine the nature and extent of the impact. The existence of different pathways and endpoints presents a problem for quantifying and comparing impacts. Disability-adjusted life year (DALY) provides a common scale, whereby the impact of climate change on both acute and chronic health outcomes can be compared. This study presents a methodology to calculate the impact of climate change on human health at a local scale, using cardiovascular disease (CVD) and meteorological disaster-related injuries (DRIs) in Osaka Prefecture, Japan, as applied case studies. An additional very fine scale assessment of CVD conducted at the neighbourhood level to demonstrate the importance of conducting risk assessments at a local level. The comparative results calculated the impact of climate change in 2050 to be 16.866 DALY/100,000 population for CVD and 0.645 DALY/100,000 for meteorological DRIs. The actual impact of climate change by 2050 on CVD is judged to be higher, although the relative risk was projected to be lower (1.006, compared to 1.263 for meteorological DRIs). The fine scale assessment revealed the variations in the projected impact of climate change on CVD for all administrative zones in Osaka Prefecture. The range of impacts varied from 0 to 114.29 DALY/100,000. The results demonstrate the applicability of using DALY to quantify the impact of climate change on different health outcomes, using a transferable methodology, and provide information that enables evidence-based prioritisation of climate change adaptation strategies at a local scale.     

Optimizing angles of rooftop photovoltaics,ratios of solar to vegetated roof systems,and economic benefits,in Portland,Oregon, USA

This study analyzed insolation data to account for multiple scattering in calculating optimal tilt angles for stationary and seasonally moving photovoltaics on three different roof types in the US Pacific Northwest: vegetated roofs, white roofs, and dark roofs. Using these results, we modeled the energy savings for vegetated roofs and roofs covered in varying numbers of photovoltaic panels. We then calculated the net present value, internal rate of return, and other economic measures for all possible combinations of covering rooftops in mixes of photovoltaic arrays and vegetation, accounting for installation costs, proposed carbon taxes, stormwater management discounts, and other relevant factors. Our results quantify how, in the US Pacific Northwest and similar locations, photovoltaics produce higher returns on investment than do vegetated roofs for new buildings, while vegetated roofs produce better returns on investment than do photovoltaics for older buildings. This is important because in many areas, some buildings have photovoltaics when a vegetated roof would have been more cost and energy efficient, while other buildings have vegetated roofs when photovoltaics would have been more cost and energy efficient. Potential applications include modifying incentive programs and other policies to account properly for building age, use, and other relevant factors to ensure building owners make the most energy-efficient decisions between photovoltaic versus vegetated roof installation. Our research also demonstrates how positive returns on investment can be realized in the US Pacific Northwest and similar regions through vegetated roofs and photovoltaics provided they are each installed optimally.     

Trends and applications of multi-criteria decision analysis in environmental sciences: literature review

Approximately 3000 papers concerning multi-criteria decision analysis (MCDA) in the environmental field were identified through a series of queries in the Web of Science database and classified by MCDA method and environmental application using text mining in R. Stemming and stop word removal techniques were used to remove irrelevant text from the literature. Trends in MCDA methods (AHP/ANP, TOPSIS, outranking, MAUT/MAVT) associated with specific environmental applications (water, air, energy, natural resources, and waste management) or interventions/tools applications (stakeholders, strategies, sustainability, and GIS) were identified. The results show a linear growth in the share of MCDA papers in environmental science across all application areas. Furthermore, the results show that AHP/ANP and MAUT/MAVT are the most frequently mentioned MCDA methods in the literature. For environmental applications, the results showed that natural resource and waste management keywords were, respectively, the most and least commonly discussed applications within the MCDA papers. For intervention/tool applications, we found that keywords associated with ‘strategy’ and ‘GIS’ applications are, respectively, the most and least commonly discussed keywords within the MCDA papers. The authors found that MCDA method keywords were evenly distributed across the environmental and intervention/tool applications, indicating a lack of preference in the environmental field for use of specific MCDA methods. This paper demonstrates that text mining is an applicable tool to assess specific textual trends and patterns when analyzing larger bodies of MCDA literature.     

Use of cholinesterase activity in monitoring chlorpyrifos exposure of steer cattle after topical administration

The aim of this work was to study the pharmacokinetic behavior and the inhibitory effect of acetylcholinesterase (AChE) and butyrylcholinesterase (BChE) activities of chlorpyrifos (CPF) in steer cattle after pour-on administration. Determination of cholinesterase activity in plasma and erythrocyte was carried out according to Ellman kinetic method. CPF was analyzed by gas chromatography. AChE was the predominant form of cholinesterase analyzed, with low levels of BChE in plasma. Following the treatment with CPF, the maximum inhibitory effect on AChE or BChE were 50.88 ± 11.57 and 42.66 ± 12.01%, respectively. The chlorpyrifos plasma concentrations observed were low and they presented a high variability. Chlorpyrifos peak plasma concentration (10.42 ± 4.76 μ g/L) was reached at 8.42 ± 13.97 h. The pesticide was not detected in plasma after 48 h post treatment. The values of area under the curve (AUC) were 118.48 ± 87.46 μ g· h/L and mean resistance time (MRT) were 13.38 ± 10.41 h. The pour-on exposure to the organophosphate chlorpyrifos significantly reduced AChE and BChE activity in steer cattle and the recovery was not reached on 50 days post-treatment.     

Pesticide dissipation curves in peach,pear and tomato crops in Uruguay*

Dissipation curves of azoxystrobin and of the neonicotinoids acetamiprid and thiacloprid in peach; azinphos-methyl and carbaryl in pear and azoxystrobin, chlorfenapyr and chlorpyrifos in high-tunnel tomato crops were studied in the Southern region of Uruguay. An analytical methodology based on solid phase extraction (SPE) and detection by High Performance Liquid Chromatography with Diode Array Detector (HPLC/DAD) was used for acetamiprid and thiacloprid. Coupled SPE and detection by Gas Chromatography with Mass Selective Detector (GC/MSD) was used for the detection of azinphos-methyl, azoxystrobin, carbaryl, chlorfenapyr and chlorpyrifos residues. Curves were modeled mathematically with Solver program of Microsoft Excel®. The best fit for acetamiprid and thiacloprid in peach was achieved with the exponential model (r²=0.961 and 0.944, respectively). In the case of peach fruits there is not a Maximum Residue Limit (MRL) for acetamiprid in the Codex Alimentarius, while 0.5 mg/kg is the value rated for thiacloprid. The MRLs accepted by the European Union (EU) are 0.1 mg/kg for acetamiprid and 0.3 mg/kg for thiacloprid. According to the curves determined in these experiments, thiacloprid residues 10 to 12 days after application (daa) were below the MRLs established by both sources. In the case of acetamiprid, 25 daa would be required, according to the exponential mathematical model, to get residues levels below the MRL values established by the EU. For azinphos methyl in pear, the residues detected were mathematically fitted to an exponential model (r²=0.999). According to it, residue levels under the MRL established by the EU (0.05 mg/kg) are gotten in our conditions in 20 daa. In plastic tunnel tomato chlorfenapyr residues were not detected from 16 daa, having the dissipation curve an exponential trend. In the same condition, there was not a decay of the azoxystrobin concentration during a 24-day trial, being it around 0.40 ± 0.05 mg/kg.     

Near-source air quality impacts of large olefin flares

Large petrochemical flares, common in the Houston Ship Channel (the Ship Channel) and other industrialized areas in the Gulf of Mexico region, emit hundreds to thousands of pounds per hour of highly reactive volatile organic compounds (HRVOCs). We employed fine horizontal resolution (200 m?×?200 m) in a three-dimensional (3D) Eulerian chemical transport model to simulate two historical Ship Channel flares. The model reasonably reproduced the observed ozone rise at the nearest monitoring stations downwind of the flares. The larger of the two flares had an olefin emission rate exceeding 1400 lb/hr. In this case, the model simulated a rate of increase in peak ozone greater than 40 ppb/hr over a 12 km?×?12 km horizontal domain without any unusual meteorological conditions. In this larger flare, formaldehyde emissions typically neglected in official inventories enhanced peak ozone by as much as 16 ppb and contributed over 10 ppb to ambient formaldehyde up to ～8 km downwind of the flare. The intense horizontal gradients in large flare plumes cannot be simulated by coarse models typically used to demonstrate ozone attainment. Moreover, even the relatively dense monitoring network in the Ship Channel may not be able to detect many transient high ozone events (THOEs) caused by industrial flare emissions in the absence of stagnant air recirculation or stalled sea breeze fronts, even though such conditions are unnecessary for the occurrence of THOEs.

Implications: Flare minimization may be an important strategy to attain the U.S. federal ozone standard in industrialized areas, and to avoid inordinate exposure to formaldehyde in neighborhoods surrounding petrochemical facilities. Moreover, air quality monitoring networks, emission inventories, and chemical transport models with higher spatial and temporal resolution and more refined speciation of HRVOCs are needed to better account for the near-source air quality impacts of large olefin flares.     

The Effects of Hypoxia on Sediment Nitrogen Cycling in the Baltic Sea

Primary production in the eutrophic Baltic Sea is limited by nitrogen availability; hence denitrification (natural transformation of nitrate to gaseous N₂) in the sediments is crucial in mitigating the effects of eutrophication. This study shows that dissimilatory nitrate reduction to ammonium (DNRA) process, where nitrogen is not removed but instead recycled in the system, dominates nitrate reduction in low oxygen conditions (O₂ <110 μM), which have been persistent in the central Gulf of Finland during the past decade. The nitrogen removal rates measured in this study show that nitrogen removal has decreased in the Gulf of Finland compared to rates measured in mid-1990s and the decrease is most likely caused by the increased bottom water hypoxia.     

Arctic Tipping Points: Governance in Turbulent Times

Interacting forces of climate change and globalization are transforming the Arctic. Triggered by a non-linear shift in sea ice, this transformation has unleashed mounting interest in opportunities to exploit the region’s natural resources as well as growing concern about environmental, economic, and political issues associated with such efforts. This article addresses the implications of this transformation for governance, identifies limitations of existing arrangements, and explores changes needed to meet new demands. It advocates the development of an Arctic regime complex featuring flexibility across issues and adaptability over time along with an enhanced role for the Arctic Council both in conducting policy-relevant assessments and in promoting synergy in interactions among the elements of the emerging Arctic regime complex. The emphasis throughout is on maximizing the fit between the socioecological features of the Arctic and the character of the governance arrangements needed to steer the Arctic toward a sustainable future.