Modeling non-linear changes in an urban setting: From pro-environmental affordances to responses in behavior,emissions and air quality

Interactions in urban environment were investigated using a multidisciplinary model combination, with focus on traffic, emissions and atmospheric particles. An agent-based model was applied to simulate the evolution of unsustainable human behavior (usage of combustion-based personal vehicles) as a function of pro-environmental affordances (opportunities for sustainable choices). Scenarios regarding changes in multi-pollutant emissions were derived, and the non-linear implications to atmospheric particles were simulated with a box model. Based on the results for a Nordic city, increasing pro-environmental affordances by 10%, 50% or 100% leads to emission reductions of 15%, 30% and 40% within 2 years. To reduce ambient particle mass, emissions from traffic should decrease by > 15%, while the lung deposited surface area decreases in all scenarios (-23%, -32% and -36%, correspondingly). The presented case is representative of one season, but the approach is generic and applicable to simulating a full year, given meteorological and pollution data that reflects seasonal variation. This work emphasizes the necessity to consider feedback mechanisms and non-linearities in both human behavior and atmospheric processes, when predicting the outcomes of changes in an urban system.Supplementary InformationThe online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1007/s13280-022-01827-8.     

Phosphorus loss from different farming systems estimated from soil surface phosphorus balance

The phosphorus load originating from crop production and animal husbandry is a major contributor to the eutrophication of lakes, rivers and coastal waters. The P losses to surface waters may, however, differ drastically due to the diversity of agricultural production systems practised under contrasting environmental conditions. To assess the most problematic types of agriculture, we need information on the P load from different alternative farming practices. Such information cannot, however, be obtained solely from field runoff experiments, as the number of treatment combinations required to account for all relevant farming systems and environmental conditions far exceeds our research capabilities. To facilitate the comparison of P loads, we therefore need reasonably simple models. A key factor controlling the P load from agriculture is the past and present use of nutrients in fertilizers and manure in relation to a crop's uptake, i.e. the soil-surface balance of P. Here, we present a simple empirical model that relates the P surplus (or deficit) in a farm to the edge-of-field losses of algal-available P. Based on long-term fertilizer trials, the model first estimates the change in soil-test P of top soil with the aid of the soil-surface balance of P. Soil-test P is then used to approximate the concentration of dissolved reactive P in surface runoff and drainage flow, as adjusted for different P application types. The loss of particulate P is obtained from typical erosion rates. The model can be applied in life-cycle analyses and in assessing future developments. We illustrate use of the model by calculating the loss of algal-available P from conventional and organic crop and dairy farms located on clay and fine sand soils.     

Evaluation of the European population intake fractions for European and Finnish anthropogenic primary fine particulate matter emissions

The intake fraction (iF) has been defined as the integrated incremental intake of a pollutant released from a source category or region summed over all exposed individuals. In this study we evaluated the iFs in the population of Europe for emissions of anthropogenic primary fine particulate matter (PM_2.5) from sources in Europe, with a more detailed analysis of the iF from Finnish sources. Parameters for calculating the iFs include the emission strengths, the predicted atmospheric concentrations, European population data, and the average breathing rate per person. Emissions for the whole of Europe and Finland were based on the inventories of the European Monitoring and Evaluation Programme (EMEP) and the Finnish Regional Emission Scenario (FRES) model, respectively. The atmospheric dispersion of primary PM_2.5 was computed using the regional-scale dispersion model SILAM. The iFs from Finnish sources were also computed separately for six emission source categories. The iFs corresponding to the primary PM_2.5 emissions from the European countries for the whole population of Europe were generally highest for the densely populated Western European countries, second highest for the Eastern and Southern European countries, and lowest for the Northern European and Baltic countries. For the entire European population, the iF values varied from the lowest value of 0.31 per million for emissions from Cyprus, to the highest value of 4.42 per million for emissions from Belgium. These results depend on the regional distribution of the population and the prevailing long-term meteorological conditions. Regarding Finnish primary PM_2.5 emissions, the iF was highest for traffic emissions (0.68 per million) and lowest for major power plant emissions (0.50 per million). The results provide new information that can be used to find the most cost-efficient emission abatement strategies and policies.     

A feasible method to assess inaccuracy caused by patchiness in water quality monitoring

Patchiness is a typical property of water quality in lakes. However, in conventional water quality monitoring, patchiness is usually too expensive to take into account, due to the high number of required samples. This study examines a feasible methodology developed for estimating the representativeness of discrete chlorophyll a measurements. Four spatially extensive data sets were collected from the Enonselkä basin of Lake Vesijärvi in Southern Finland, using a flow trough system with a fluorometer in a moving boat. Data sets were used to estimate (1) the spatial representativeness of discrete sampling; (2) the effect of varying sample size on the detected mean chlorophyll a concentration and on the observed proportion of variance. Spatial representativeness was assessed using semivariogram analysis. Results indicate that the spatial representativeness of discrete sampling can remain undesirably low. Furthermore, in monitoring programs involving just one or only a few samples, there is a significant risk of obtaining a false estimate for the mean value and variance of chlorophyll a concentration over the whole monitoring area.     

Total and methyl mercury concentrations and fluxes from small boreal forest catchments in Finland

Total mercury (TotHg) and methyl mercury (MeHg) concentrations were studied in runoff from eight small (0.02-1.3 km2) boreal forest catchments (mineral soil and peatland) during 1990-1995. Runoff waters were extremely humic (TOC 7-70 mg l-1). TotHg concentrations varied between 0.84 and 24 ng l-1 and MeHg between 0.03 and 3.8 ng l-1. TotHg fluxes from catchments ranged from 0.92 to 1.8 g km-2 a-1, and MeHg fluxes from 0.03 to 0.33 g km-2 a-1. TotHg concentrations and output fluxes measured in runoff water from small forest catchments in Finland were comparable with those measured in other boreal regions. By contrast, MeHg concentrations were generally higher. Estimates for MeHg output fluxes in this study were comparable at sites with forests and wetlands in Sweden and North America, but clearly higher than those measured at upland or agricultural sites in other studies. Peatland catchments released more MeHg than pure mineral soil or mineral soil catchments with minor area of peatland.     

Mobility and Methylation of Mercury in Forest Soils Development of an In-Situ Stable Isotope Tracer Technique and Initial Results

A method for investigating in-situmethylation and mobility of mercury has beendeveloped and applied to forest soil. The methodis based on additions of stable ¹⁹⁹Hgisotopes to forest soil plots followed bysampling and analysis of isotope ratios of totalmercury and MeHg using ICP-MS. Initial resultsindicate that a fraction (30%) of the mercuryadded to the forest soils is immobilised over atime scale of 16 months. A small but significantfraction of the mercury is methylated during thesame time scale. Higher methylation rates werefound in wetland soil than in dry forest podzolsoil.     

Occurrence and rates of terminal electron-accepting processes and recharge processes in petroleum hydrocarbon-contaminated subsurface

The occurrence and rates of terminal electron acceptor processes, and recharge processes in the unsaturated zone of a boreal site contaminated with petroleum hydrocarbons in the range C(10) to C(40) were examined. Soil microcosms were used to determine the rates of denitrification, iron (Fe) reduction, sulfate (SO(4)) reduction, and methanogenesis in two vertical soil profiles contaminated with oil, and in a noncontaminated reference sample. Furthermore, the abundances of the 16S rRNA genes belonging to Geobacteracaea in the samples were determined by real-time quantitative polymerase chain reaction (PCR). Analyses of ground water chemistry and soil gas composition were also performed together with continuous in situ monitoring of soil water and ground water chemistry. Several lines of evidence were obtained to demonstrate that both Fe reduction and methanogenesis played significant roles in the vertical profiles: Fe reduction rates up to 3.7 nmol h(-1) g(-1) were recorded and they correlated with the abundances of the Geobacteracaea 16S rRNA genes (range: 2.3 x 10(5) to 4.9 x 10(7) copies g(-1)). In the ground water, ferrous iron (Fe(2+)) concentration up to 55 mg L(-1) was measured. Methane production rates up to 2.5 nmol h(-1) g(-1) were obtained together with methane content up to 15% (vol/vol) in the soil gas. The continuous monitoring of soil water and ground water chemistry, microcosm experiments, and soil gas monitoring together demonstrated that the high microbial activity in the unsaturated zone resulted in rapid removal of oxygen from the infiltrating recharge thus leaving the anaerobic microbial processes dominant below 1.5 m depth both in the unsaturated and the saturated zones of the subsurface.     

Roadside aerosol study using hygroscopic,organic and volatility TDMAs: Characterization and mixing state

Traffic-related aerosol particles are ubiquitous in the urban atmosphere. As they are produced at ground level, they can also cause adverse health effects to urban dwellers. However, knowledge of the formation, transformation and chemically resolved size distribution of urban ultrafine particles is incomplete. Thus, more of these measurements are needed for better assessment of ambient air quality and its potential health effects. The particle number concentration, aerosol black carbon (BC) concentration and size distribution of traffic-related aerosols were measured near two major roads in Kuopio, Finland, from 16 June to 5 July, 2004. Furthermore, the properties of roadside aerosol particles were examined with the Tandem Differential Mobility Analyzer technique (TDMA). A suite of TDMA instruments relying on water (hygroscopic TDMA) and ethanol (organic TDMA) condensation as well as heating (volatility TDMA) were deployed to study the composition of the nucleation and Aitken mode particles (D_p = 10–50 nm) formed from vehicle exhaust. The results show that a simple three-component model was able to reproduce characteristic insoluble, organic and water-soluble volume fractions. Insoluble constituents were dominant in the Aitken mode particles, whereas organic compounds dominated the nucleation mode sizes. On average, only a small volume fraction was water-soluble, but a clear external mixing was observed particularly when enough time was allowed after the tail pipe emissions. The contribution of the insoluble material was seen to increase as a function of particle size, being typically less than 10% at 10 nm and between 20 and 50% at 50 nm, in contrast to the organic fraction, which decreased from about 80% at nucleation mode size range to 50–60% at 50 nm.     

Bacterial community changes in response to oil contamination and perennial crop cultivation

Environmental Science and Pollution Research - We investigated bacterial community dynamics in response to used motor oil contamination and perennial crop cultivation by 16S rRNA gene amplicon...     

Developing interdisciplinary environmental frameworks

The purpose of this article is to review interdisciplinary systemic frameworks of environmental protection and evaluate their use as tools, educational policymaking and education. We analyze the pressures-state-responses (PSR) framework of the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development, the drivers-pressures-state-impact-response (DPSIR) framework developed in the European Environment Agency and a later environmental political dynamics framework developed by Schroll and Staerdahl. We then continue the discussion by introducing a comprehensive model, labeled as the environmental protection process (EPP) framework that can be used to analyze and teach why there are environmental problems, what are their characteristics, and in which ways they can be mitigated. The EPP model is used for classifying measures of coping with environmental problems. Finally, a submodel of individual and societal factors affecting human action is formed. Environmental issues of transport are used as an illustrative example. We hope to contribute a relevant way to outline a wide interdisciplinary picture of environmental problems and solutions.