A Comparison of Bayesian Methods for Uncertainty Analysis in Hydraulic and Hydrodynamic Modeling

We evaluate and compare the performance of Bayesian Monte Carlo (BMC), Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC), and the Generalized Likelihood Uncertainty Estimation (GLUE) for uncertainty analysis in hydraulic and hydrodynamic modeling (HHM) studies. The methods are evaluated in a synthetic 1D wave routing exercise based on the diffusion wave model, and in a multidimensional hydrodynamic study based on the Environmental Fluid Dynamics Code to simulate estuarine circulation processes in Weeks Bay, Alabama. Results show that BMC and MCMC provide similar estimates of uncertainty. The posterior parameter densities computed by both methods are highly consistent, as well as the calibrated parameter estimates and uncertainty bounds. Although some studies suggest that MCMC is more efficient than BMC, our results did not show a clear difference between the performance of the two methods. This seems to be due to the low number of model parameters typically involved in HHM studies, and the use of the same likelihood function. In fact, for these studies, the implementation of BMC results simpler and provides similar results to MCMC. The results of GLUE are, on the other hand, less consistent to the results of BMC and MCMC in both applications. The posterior probability densities tend to be flat and similar to the uniform priors, which can result in calibrated parameter estimates centered in the parametric space.     

Land Use Change and Land Degradation in Southeastern Mediterranean Spain

The magnitude of the environmental and social consequences of soil erosion and land degradation in semiarid areas of the Mediterranean region has long been recognized and studied. This paper investigates the interrelationship between land use/cover (LULC) changes and land degradation using remotely sensed and ancillary data for southeastern Spain. The area of study, the Xaló River catchment situated in the north of the Alicante Province, has been subjected to a number of LULC changes during the second half of the 20th century such as agricultural abandonment, forest fires, and tourist development. Aerial photographs dating back to 1956 were used for the delineation of historic LULC types; Landsat ETM+ data were used for the analysis and mapping of current conditions. Two important indicators of land degradation, namely, susceptibility to surface runoff and soil erosion, were estimated for the two dates using easily parametrizable models. The comparison of 1956 to 2000 conditions shows an overall “recuperating” trend over the catchment and increased susceptibility to soil erosion only in 3% of the catchment area. The results also identify potential degradation hot-spots where mitigation measures should be taken to prevent further degradation. The readily implemented methodology, based on modest data requirements demonstrated by this study, is a useful tool for catchment to regional scale land use change and land degradation studies and strategic planning for environmental management.     

A Comparison of Spatial and Spectral Image Resolution for Mapping Invasive Plants in Coastal California

We explored the potential of detecting three target invasive species: iceplant (Carpobrotus edulis), jubata grass (Cortaderia jubata), and blue gum (Eucalyptus globulus) at Vandenberg Air Force Base, California. We compared the accuracy of mapping six communities (intact coastal scrub, iceplant invaded coastal scrub, iceplant invaded chaparral, jubata grass invaded chaparral, blue gum invaded chaparral, and intact chaparral) using four images with different combinations of spatial and spectral resolution: hyperspectral AVIRIS imagery (174 wavebands, 4 m spatial resolution), spatially degraded AVIRIS (174 bands, 30 m), spectrally degraded AVIRIS (6 bands, 4 m), and both spatially and spectrally degraded AVIRIS (6 bands, 30 m, i.e., simulated Landsat ETM data). Overall success rates for classifying the six classes was 75% (kappa 0.7) using full resolution AVIRIS, 58% (kappa 0.5) for the spatially degraded AVIRIS, 42% (kappa 0.3) for the spectrally degraded AVIRIS, and 37% (kappa 0.3) for the spatially and spectrally degraded AVIRIS. A true Landsat ETM image was also classified to illustrate that the results from the simulated ETM data were representative, which provided an accuracy of 50% (kappa 0.4). Mapping accuracies using different resolution images are evaluated in the context of community heterogeneity (species richness, diversity, and percent species cover). Findings illustrate that higher mapping accuracies are achieved with images possessing high spectral resolution, thus capturing information across the visible and reflected infrared solar spectrum. Understanding the tradeoffs in spectral and spatial resolution can assist land managers in deciding the most appropriate imagery with respect to target invasives and community characteristics.     

Quantifying The Rainfall-Water Level Fluctuation Process in a Geologically Complex Lake Catchment

Abstact Simulating hydrologic processes in geologically complex environments is a difficult scientific task since it incorporates high level of uncertainty. Many studies have attempted to accurately quantify the rainfall-water level elevation relationship in freshwater bodies so as to predict flooding and drought events. For this purpose several types of models have been implemented including distributed, black box and conceptual models that often provide efficient results, depending on the availability of reliable data as well as on the level of understanding of the system. Nevertheless, in the particular effort, three different models have been used to describe the relationship between rainfall and water level elevation in Trichonis Lake during the period 1951–1997. A Transfer Function model, a Dynamic Linear Regression and a physically based model, consisting of the lake's water budget equation, its Digital Bathymetric Model and GIS algorithms. These models have been tested to assess their efficiency and applicability in a karstic environment and the aim of the study was to find the best modeling option for developing sustainable water management plans and establishing a flooding/drought warning system in the particular lake catchment. The results indicated that in areas with geologically complex conditions, simple, physically-based models operate better than mechanistic models which usually cannot describe adequately the complexity of the system     

The effects of field-realistic doses of imidacloprid on Melipona quadrifasciata (Apidae: Meliponini) workers

Environmental Science and Pollution Research - The presence of Brazilian native bees can improve tomato production by increasing pollination effectiveness. However, the extensive use of pesticides...     

Assessment of heavy metals in water samples and tissues of edible fish species from Awassa and Koka Rift Valley Lakes, Ethiopia

The Ethiopian Rift Valley Lakes host populations of edible fish species including Oreochromis niloticus, Labeobarbus intermedius and Clarias gariepinus, which are harvested also in other tropical countries. We investigated the occurrence of six heavy metals in tissues of these fish species as well as in the waters of Lake Koka and Lake Awassa. Both lakes are affected by industrial effluents in their catchments, making them ideal study sites. Mercury concentrations were very low in the water samples, but concentrations in the fish samples were relatively high, suggesting a particularly high bioaccumulation tendency as compared with the other investigated metals. Mercury was preferentially accumulated in the fish liver or muscle. It was the only metal with species-specific accumulation with highest levels found in the predatory species L. intermedius. Lower mercury concentrations in O. niloticus could be attributed to the lower trophic level, whereas mercury values in the predatory C. gariepinus were unexpectedly low. This probably relates to the high growth rate of this species resulting in biodilution of mercury. Accumulation of lead, selenium, chromium, arsenic and cadmium did not differ between species, indicating that these elements are not biomagnified in the food chain. Values of cadmium, selenium and arsenic were highest in fish livers, while lead and chromium levels were highest in the gills, which could be related to the uptake pathway. A significant impact of the industrial discharges on the occurrence of metals in the lakes could not be detected, and the respective concentrations in fish do not pose a public health hazard.     

Measurements of benzene and formaldehyde in a medium sized urban environment. Indoor/outdoor health risk implications on special population groups

In the present study, the results of a measurement campaign aiming to assess cancer risk among two special groups of population: policemen and laboratory technicians exposed to the toxic substances, benzene and formaldehyde are presented. The exposure is compared to general population risk. The results show that policemen working outdoor (traffic regulation, patrol on foot or in vehicles, etc.) are exposed at a significantly higher benzene concentration (3-5 times) than the general population, while the exposure to carbonyls is in general lower. The laboratory technicians appear to be highly exposed to formaldehyde while no significant variation of benzene exposure in comparison to the general population is recorded. The assessment revealed that laboratory technicians and policemen run a 20% and 1% higher cancer risk respectively compared to the general population. Indoor working place air quality is more significant in assessing cancer risk in these two categories of professionals, due to the higher Inhalation Unit Risk (IUR) of formaldehyde compared to benzene. Since the origin of the danger to laboratory technicians is clear (use of chemicals necessary for the experiments), in policemen the presence of carbonyls in indoor air concentrations due to smoking or used materials constitute a danger equal to the exposure to traffic originated air pollutants.     

The impact of CO2 capture in the power and heat sector on the emission of SO2, NOx,particulate matter,volatile organic compounds and NH3 in the European Union

This study quantifies the trade-offs and synergies between climate and air quality policy objectives for the European power and heat (P&H) sector. An overview is presented of the expected performance data of CO₂ capture systems implemented at P&H plants, and the expected emission of key air pollutants, being: SO₂, NO_X, NH₃, volatile organic compounds (VOCs) and particulate matter (PM). The CO₂ capture systems investigated include: post-combustion, oxyfuel combustion and pre-combustion capture.For all capture systems it was found that SO₂, NO_x and PM emissions are expected to be reduced or remain equal per unit of primary energy input compared to power plants without CO₂ capture. Increase in primary energy input as a result of the energy penalty for CO₂ capture may for some technologies and substances result in a net increase of emissions per kWh output. The emission of ammonia may increase by a factor of up to 45 per unit of primary energy input for post-combustion technologies. No data are available about the emission of VOCs from CO₂ capture technologies.A simple model was developed and applied to analyse the impact of CO₂ capture in the European P&H sector on the emission level of key air pollutants in 2030. Four scenarios were developed: one without CO₂ capture and three with one dominantly implemented CO₂ capture system, varying between: post-combustion, oxyfuel combustion and pre-combustion.The results showed a reduction in GHG emissions for the scenarios with CO₂ capture compared to the baseline scenario between 12% and 20% in the EU 27 region in 2030. NO_x emissions were 15% higher in the P&H sector in a scenario with predominantly post-combustion and lower when oxyfuel combustion (?16%) or pre-combustion (?20%) were implemented on a large scale. Large scale implementation of the post-combustion technology in 2030 may also result in significantly higher, i.e. increase by a factor of 28, NH₃ emissions compared to scenarios with other CO₂ capture options or without capture. SO₂ emissions were very low for all scenarios that include large scale implementation of CO₂ capture in 2030, i.e. a reduction varying between 27% and 41%. Particulate Matter emissions were found to be lower in the scenarios with CO₂ capture. The scenario with implementation of the oxyfuel technology showed the lowest PM emissions followed by the scenario with a significant share allocated to pre-combustion, respectively ?59% and ?31%. The scenario with post-combustion capture resulted in PM emissions varying between 35% reduction and 26% increase.     

Hydro-geochemical aspects of Mediterranean temporary ponds in western Crete

The hydrologic and geochemical conditions that prevail in Mediterranean temporary ponds (MTPs), create a unique environment for many rare and endangered species. Mediterranean temporary ponds are habitats of high ecological value, which are vulnerable to imminent climatic changes, as well as to human activities. This article examines the hydrology and the nitrogen and phosphorous geochemical cycles of four MTPs in Crete. Field and laboratory studies provided the necessary information for the development of a conceptual understanding of the hydrologic and biogeochemical processes that affect the fate of nitrogen and phosphorous in these MTPs. Their hydrology was driven by deposition, infiltration, and evaporation. The hydroperiod of the ponds varied between 40 and 160 d. Mineralization and nutrient release capacity experiments illustrated the significant role that MTP sediments played in enhancing the geochemistry of the aqueous phase. Such ecosystem functions (i.e., mineralization, nutrient release) exhibited high variability among MTPs necessitating site-specific studies with immediate implications to management. It is very important to understand the local hydrogeochemical and climatic conditions to ensure appropriate environmental measures for their management and conservation.     

Spatial Distribution of Water Supply in the Coterminous United States1

Abstract: Available water supply across the contiguous 48 states was estimated as precipitation minus evapotranspiration using data for the period 1953‐1994. Precipitation estimates were taken from the Parameter‐Elevation Regressions on Independent Slopes Model (PRISM). Evapotranspiration was estimated using two models, the Advection‐Aridity model and the Zhang model. The evapotranspiration models were calibrated using precipitation and runoff data for 655 hydrologically undisturbed basins, and then tested using estimates of natural runoff for the 18 water resource regions (WRR) of the 48 contiguous states. The final water supply coverage reflects a mixture of outputs from the two evapotranspiration models. Political, administrative, and land cover boundaries were mapped over the coverage of mean annual water supply. Across the entire study area, we find that 53% of the water supply originates on forested land, which covers only 29% of the surface area, and that 24% originates on federal lands, including 18% on national forests and grasslands alone. Forests and federal lands are even more important in the West (the 11 western contiguous states), where 65% of the water supply originates on forested land and 66% on federal lands, with national forests and grasslands contributing 51%.