An integrated assessment modeling framework for assessing primary and secondary impacts from carbon dioxide stabilization scenarios

As the nations of the world negotiate future controls on greenhouse gas emissions, a critical environmental policy issue becomes understanding the multiple environmental consequences of these controls. Here we describe an integrated assessment model for quantifying multiple environmental impacts of large-scale environmental initiatives and apply this model to climate change mitigation. Our analysis shows that reductions in global warming will be accompanied by reductions in ozone depletion, acid rain and mercury emissions, and desulfurization waste generation. We also conclude that the largest collateral benefits from reducing global climate change may be in the developing world. This result is critical since it is the developing nations who ultimately control the long-term success of any climate stabilization strategy. This revised version was published online in July 2006 with corrections to the Cover Date.     

Diesel particulate emissions and the implications for the soiling of buildings

Summary The sources of dark smoke and particulate elemental carbon (PEC) in the London and United Kingdom atmospheres have been estimated from emission inventories. Diesels are responsible for about 60 percent of the dark smoke and 95 percent of the PEC in London, and about 30 percent of the dark smoke and 90 percent of the PEC in the UK. The role of PEC in the soiling of materials is considered. An experimental programme in the Hatfield Tunnel revealed a soiling rate constant of 1.9 yr^–1. The socio-economic implications of building soiling are considered.Dr Trudie Mansfield completed her postgraduate training at Middlesex Polytechnic, where her research supervisor, Dr Ron Hamilton, and Bryan Ellis are members of staff in the Urban Pollution Research Centre (address, Bounds Green Road, London N11 2NQ) and Peter Newby is a staff member in the School of Geography (address, Queensway, Enfield EN3 4SF). Trudie Mansfield is a Senior Scientific Officer in the Air Quality Division of the Department of the Environment.     

新疆孔雀河表层沉积物中有机氯农药的分布及风险评价

分析了新疆孔雀河9个表层沉积物样品中22种有机氯农药(OCPs)含量,其主要OCPs含量的顺序为:六六六>异狄氏剂醛>滴滴涕>艾氏剂>硫丹Ⅱ>异狄氏剂>氯丹.研究表明,近期有γ-HCH输入到孔雀河,其最可能的来源是博斯腾湖的补给或孔雀河附近的农业回流水.滴滴涕的组成特征分析表明,DDTs主要源于施用的农药在好氧环境土壤中的分解,产生DDE等主要产物.风险评价表明,污染物的风险较低,所有被评估的OCPs的风险值均小于风险评价高限(ERM).     

Photographic mark-recapture analysis of clustered mammal-eating killer whales around the Aleutian Islands and Gulf of Alaska

We used photographic mark-recapture methods to estimate the number of mammal-eating “transient” killer whales using the coastal waters from the central Gulf of Alaska to the central Aleutian Islands, around breeding rookeries of endangered Steller sea lions. We identified 154 individual killer whales from 6,489 photographs collected between July 2001 and August 2003. A Bayesian mixture model estimated seven distinct clusters (95% probability interval = 7–10) of individuals that were differentially covered by 14 boat-based surveys exhibiting varying degrees of association in space and time. Markov Chain Monte Carlo methods were used to sample identification probabilities across the distribution of clusters to estimate a total of 345 identified and undetected whales (95% probability interval = 255–487). Estimates of covariance between surveys, in terms of their coverage of these clusters, indicated spatial population structure and seasonal movements from these near-shore waters, suggesting spatial and temporal variation in the predation pressure on coastal marine mammals.     

Evaluating the cost-effectiveness of a monitoring system for improved evacuation from passenger ships

This paper presents an evaluation of the cost-effectiveness of a novel passenger monitoring system based on RFID technology for implementation onboard passenger ships. Such a system will be able to detect and keep track of passengers onboard the ship in emergency situations in order to provide crucial decision support to the officer in charge of evacuation. This will lead to increased safety and security on passenger ships. However, this increased safety will come at a certain cost. A methodology in line with Formal Safety Assessment is employed in order to assess the cost-effectiveness of the system, involving a thorough risk analysis.     

Effectiveness of terrestrial protected areas for conservation of lake fish communities

Freshwater protected areas are rare even though freshwater ecosystems are among the most imperiled in the world. Conservation actions within terrestrial protected areas (TPAs) such as development or resource extraction regulations may spill over to benefit freshwater ecosystems within their boundaries. Using data from 175 lakes across Ontario, Canada, we compared common indicators of fish‐assemblage status (i.e., species richness, Shannon diversity index, catch per unit effort, and normalized‐length size spectrum slopes) to evaluate whether TPAs benefit lake fish assemblages. Nearest neighbor cluster analysis was used to generate pairs of lakes: inside versus outside, inside versus bordering, and bordering versus outside TPAs based on lake characteristics. The diversity and abundance indicators did not differ significantly across comparisons, but normalized‐length size spectrum slopes (NLSS) were significantly steeper in lakes outside parks. The latter indicated assemblage differences (greater abundances of small‐bodied species) and less‐efficient energy transfer through the trophic levels of assemblages outside parks. Although not significantly different, pollution‐ and turbidity‐tolerant species were more abundant outside parks, whereas 3 of the 4 pollution‐intolerant species were more abundant within parks. Twenty‐one percent of the difference in slopes was related to higher total dissolved solids concentrations and angling pressure. Our results support the hypothesis that TPAs benefit lake fish assemblages and suggest that NLSS slopes are informative indicators for aquatic protected area evaluations because they represent compositional and functional aspects of communities.     

GIS in planning

This paper outlines some of the potential uses of GIS in planning authorities, and identifies some of the pitfalls to be avoided. It begins with some practical considerations in the area of data sources and system configurations, goes on to envision ways in which GIS might benefit the work of a planning department, and finally considers some of the management issues which surround the introduction and use of GIS in planning.