Long-Term Prediction of Traffic Accident Record From Bus Driver Celeration Behavior

Driver celeration (speed change) behavior of bus drivers measured a number of times was used to predict their culpable accidents over increasing time periods. It was found that predictive power was considerable (>.30 correlation) over 5 years of time with aggregated celeration (mean of repeated measurements) as independent variables, and there were also indications that power reached even further, although too low Ns made these results unreliable. Similarly, there were indications of even stronger correlations with increased aggregation of celeration values. The results were discussed in terms of the methodology needed to bring out such results, and the stability of accident-causing behavior over time.     

Grading of Parameters for Urban Tree Inventories by City Officials, Arborists, and Academics Using the Delphi Method

Tree inventories are expensive to conduct and update, so every inventory carried out must be maximized. However, increasing the number of constituent parameters increases the cost of performing and updating the inventory, illustrating the need for careful parameter selection. This article reports the results of a systematic expert rating of tree inventories aiming to quantify the relative importance of each parameter. Using the Delphi method, panels comprising city officials, arborists, and academics rated a total of 148 parameters. The total mean score, the top ranking parameters, which can serve as a guide for decision-making at practical level and for standardization of tree inventories, were: Scientific name of the tree species and genera, Vitality, Coordinates, Hazard class, and Identification number. The study also examined whether the different responsibilities and usage of urban tree databases among organizations and people engaged in urban tree inventories affected their prioritization. The results revealed noticeable dissimilarities in the ranking of parameters between the panels, underlining the need for collaboration between the research community and those commissioning, administrating, and conducting inventories. Only by applying such a transdisciplinary approach to parameter selection can urban tree inventories be strengthened and made more relevant.     

Stakeholders on Meat Production, Meat Consumption and Mitigation of Climate Change: Sweden as a Case

In this paper we analyse and discuss the views of Swedish stakeholders on how to mitigate climate change to the extent it is caused by meat production. The stakeholders include meat producer organisations, governmental agencies with direct influence on meat production, political parties as well as non-governmental organisations. Representatives of twelve organisations were interviewed. Several organisations argued against the mitigation option of reducing beef production despite the higher greenhouse gas intensity of beef compared to pork and chicken meat (according to life cycle analysis). Regarding feed production some organisations proposed use of the best available industrial fertilizers, others were against all use of such fertilizers. Several organizations suggested domestic production of more protein-rich fodder and use of manure for biogas production. Regarding meat consumption the focus was on throwing away less food as waste and on eating less meat but the best (most climate friendly) meat, which was considered to be Swedish meat in contrast to imported meat. There was agreement on many issues. Most disagreement was found regarding political steering. We find many of the stakeholders’ mitigation proposals regarding meat production and consumption acceptable. However, we are to some extent critical to their defence of Swedish beef production. We also point out certain problems with the suggestion to reduce consumption of imported meat but not of domestically produced meat.     

Interaction between nitrogen and phosphorus cycles in mining-affected aquatic systems—experiences from field and laboratory measurements

The main objectives of this study were to (a) study the interaction between N and P cycles in mining-affected aquatic systems and (b) to quantify release rates of sedimentary soluble reactive phosphorus (SRP) that may be related to this interaction. Sediment cores and water from Lake Bruträsket (Boliden, northern Sweden) were collected and a time series of water sampling and flow measurements was conducted in the Brubäcken stream connected to the lake. Factors affecting SRP release were studied in a sediment incubation experiment and water column experiments. Field and laboratory measurements indicated that pH and dissolved oxygen are two important factors for SRP release. At the end of the low-oxygen incubation, an SRP concentration of 56 μg?L^?1 resulted in a sedimentary flux of 1.1 mg SRP?m^?2?day^?1. This is ～10 times higher than the flux of 0.12 mg SRP?m^?2?day^?1 obtained from depth integration of vertical SRP profiles measured in the lake, and ～100 times higher than the external flux of 0.014 mg SRP?m^?2?d^?1 into the lake (based on catchment area). Field measurements indicated that oxidation of organic matter and mining-related chemicals (ammonium and thiosulphates) may result in increased internal SRP flux from the sediment. Increased P loading in the lake as a result of low-oxygen conditions could change water column total nitrogen/total phosphorus ratios from 27 to 17, consequently changing the lake from being P-limited to be co-limited by N and P. The obtained findings point to possible interaction between the cycles of nitrogen (oxygen consumption) and P (flux from sediment) that may be important for nutrient regulation in mine water recipients.     

Chemical evaluation of odor reduction by soil injection of animal manure

Field application of animal manure is a major cause of odor nuisance in the local environment. Therefore, there is a need for methods for measuring the effect of technologies for reducing odor after manure application. In this work, chemical methods were used to identify key odorants from field application of pig manure based on experiments with surface application by trailing hoses and soil injection. Results from three consecutive years of field trials with full-scale equipment are reported. Methods applied were: membrane inlet mass spectrometry (MIMS), proton-transfer-reaction mass spectrometry (PTR-MS), gold-film hydrogen sulfide (H?S) detection, all performed on site, and thermal desorption gas chromatography with mass spectrometry (TD-GC/MS) based on laboratory analyses of field samples. Samples were collected from a static flux chamber often used for obtaining samples for dynamic olfactometry. While all methods were capable of detecting relevant odorants, PTR-MS gave the most comprehensive results. Based on odor threshold values, 4-methylphenol, H?S, and methanethiol are suggested as key odorants. Significant odorant reductions by soil injection were consistently observed in all trials. The flux chamber technique was demonstrated to be associated with critical errors due to compound instabilities in the chamber. This was most apparent for H?S, on a time scale of a few minutes, and on a longer time scale for methanethiol.     

Life cycle assessment of natural gas combined cycle power plant with post-combustion carbon capture,transport and storage

Hybrid life cycle assessment has been used to assess the environmental impacts of natural gas combined cycle (NGCC) electricity generation with carbon dioxide capture and storage (CCS). The CCS chain modeled in this study consists of carbon dioxide (CO₂) capture from flue gas using monoethanolamine (MEA), pipeline transport and storage in a saline aquifer.Results show that the sequestration of 90% CO₂ from the flue gas results in avoiding 70% of CO₂ emissions to the atmosphere per kWh and reduces global warming potential (GWP) by 64%. Calculation of other environmental impacts shows the trade-offs: an increase of 43% in acidification, 35% in eutrophication, and 120–170% in various toxicity impacts. Given the assumptions employed in this analysis, emissions of MEA and formaldehyde during capture process and generation of reclaimer wastes contributes to various toxicity potentials and cause many-fold increase in the on-site direct freshwater ecotoxicity and terrestrial ecotoxicity impacts. NO_x from fuel combustion is still the dominant contributor to most direct impacts, other than toxicity potentials and GWP. It is found that the direct emission of MEA contribute little to human toxicity (HT < 1%), however it makes 16% of terrestrial ecotoxicity impact. Hazardous reclaimer waste causes significant freshwater and marine ecotoxicity impacts. Most increases in impact are due to increased fuel requirements or increased investments and operating inputs.The reductions in GWP range from 58% to 68% for the worst-case to best-case CCS system. Acidification, eutrophication and toxicity potentials show an even large range of variation in the sensitivity analysis. Decreases in energy use and solvent degradation will significantly reduce the impact in all categories.     

Leaf ontogeny interacts with Bt modification to affect innate resistance in GM aspens

Bioassays with a non-target slug (Deroceras spp.) and chemical analyses were conducted using leaf tissue from already existing genetically modified insect-resistant aspen trees to examine whether genetic modifications to produce Bacillus thuringiensis (Bt) toxins could affect plant phytochemistry, which in turn might influence plant–herbivore interactions. Three major patterns emerged. First, two independent modifications for Bt resistance affected the phytochemical profiles of leaves such that both were different from the isogenic wild-type (Wt) control leaves, but also different from each other. Among the contributors to these differences are substances with a presumed involvement in resistance, such as salicortin and soluble condensed tannins. Second, bioassays with one Bt line suggest that the modification somehow affected innate resistance (“Innate” is used here in opposition to the “acquired” Bt resistance) in ways such that slugs preferred Bt over Wt leaves. Third, the preference test suggests that the innate resistance in Bt relative to Wt plants may not be uniformly expressed throughout the whole plant and that leaf ontogeny interacts with the modification to affect resistance. This was manifested through an ontogenetic determined increase in leaf consumption that was more than four times higher in Bt compared to Wt leaves. Our result are of principal importance, as these indicate that genetic modifications can affect innate resistance and thus non-target herbivores in ways that may have commercial and/or environmental consequences. The finding of a modification–ontogeny interaction effect on innate resistance may be especially important in assessments of GM plants with a long lifespan such as trees.     

Digit ratios (2D:4D), secondary sexual characters and cell-mediated immunity in house sparrows <Emphasis Type="Italic">Passer domesticus</Emphasis>

Homeobox genes regulate development of digits, and it has been suggested that the ratio of length of second to length of fourth digit reflects such genetic effects in a sex-specific manner. We show that digit ratios in the sexually dichromatic house sparrow Passer domesticus differ between sexes, with males having higher ratios than females, and that individuals produce consistent ratios on the two feet. If Homeobox or other genes had pleiotropic effects on development of digits, behavior, and physiology of males and females, we would expect secondary sexual characters and immunity to be related to digit ratio in a sex-specific manner. The size of the visible part of the black badge in February (a secondary sexual character), but not total badge size, was positively correlated with digit ratios, suggesting that males with more male-like digit ratios had larger visible badges. Because of sex-specific effects of development on secondary sexual characters and immunity, we predicted sex-specific differences in immune response to be related to digit ratio. House sparrows with large digit ratios had weaker T cell-mediated immune response than individuals with small digit ratios, particularly in females, implying that females with more male-like digit ratios had weak immune responses. These findings are consistent with the hypothesis that early development, as reflected by digit ratios, and genetics affect the expression of adult characters that are supposedly strongly contributing to fitness.     

Environmental conditions influence egg color of reed warblers <Emphasis Type="Italic">Acrocephalus scirpaceus</Emphasis> and their parasite,the common cuckoo <Emphasis Type="Italic">Cuculus canorus</Emphasis>

The outer layer of the eggshell in birds is in many cases covered by pigments that are assumed to be genetically determined traits with a negligible environmental component. To test the hypothesis that spring environmental conditions (i.e., temperature and rainfall) may affect bird egg pigmentation, we measured by spectrophotometry and photography egg coloration and spottiness on reed warbler (Acrocephalus scirpaceus L.) clutches parasitized by the common cuckoo (Cuculus canorus L.) collected over a period of 24 years and preserved in the Zoological Museum, Copenhagen, Denmark. In addition, we investigated whether spring environmental conditions may influence the coevolutionary relationship between the cuckoo and its host via changes in cuckoo–host egg matching. Generalized mixed models revealed that reed warbler eggs were more brilliant in those springs with a higher rainfall and tended to be bluer and greener in springs with a lower relative temperature. On the other hand, cuckoo eggs were bluer and greener in springs with a higher rainfall. Cuckoo–host egg matching in blue-greenness and spottiness was better in springs with a higher rainfall. These results provide support for the existence of an environmental component on bird egg coloration and suggest that environmental factors may potentially affect the outcome of important features of the arms race between cuckoos and reed warblers.     

Fitness costs of an immune response in the house martin (<Emphasis Type="Italic">Delichon urbica</Emphasis>)

Immune responses constitute a major way for hosts to defend themselves against parasites. Because hosts do not habitually produce strong responses all the time, immune responses might be costly to produce or maintain. We tested experimentally if the production of a response to a challenge with a novel antigen resulted in a cost in terms of fitness using the highly colonial house martin Delichon urbica as a model system. We injected adult breeding birds during laying of the first clutch with either Newcastle disease virus (NDV) or a control injection, and the clutch was subsequently removed to induce relaying. NDV stimulates the non-specific immune system, causing production of antibodies during a period of more than 2 weeks. Accordingly, we found an increase in leukocyte counts in experimental birds compared to controls. Experimental treatment reduced the frequency of re-laying, caused a delay in timing of relaying and a reduction in brood size. Quality of nestlings in terms of body size, body mass and T-cell-mediated immune response did not differ significantly between treatments. Overall, seasonal reproductive success differed significantly between treatments, showing that the production of an immune response by adult birds is costly in terms of future fecundity.