Modeling population effects of the Deepwater Horizon oil spill on a long-lived species

The 2010 Deepwater Horizon (DWH) oil spill exposed common bottlenose dolphins (Tursiops truncatus) in Barataria Bay, Louisiana to heavy oiling that caused increased mortality and chronic disease and impaired reproduction in surviving dolphins. We conducted photographic surveys and veterinary assessments in the decade following the spill. We assigned a prognostic score (good, fair, guarded, poor, or grave) for each dolphin to provide a single integrated indicator of overall health, and we examined temporal trends in prognostic scores. We used expert elicitation to quantify the implications of trends for the proportion of the dolphins that would recover within their lifetime. We integrated expert elicitation, along with other new information, in a population dynamics model to predict the effects of observed health trends on demography. We compared the resulting population trajectory with that predicted under baseline (no spill) conditions. Disease conditions persisted and have recently worsened in dolphins that were presumably exposed to DWH oil: 78% of those assessed in 2018 had a guarded, poor, or grave prognosis. Dolphins born after the spill were in better health. We estimated that the population declined by 45% (95% CI 14–74) relative to baseline and will take 35 years (95% CI 18–67) to recover to 95% of baseline numbers. The sum of annual differences between baseline and injured population sizes (i.e., the lost cetacean years) was 30,993 (95% CI 6607–94,148). The population is currently at a minimum point in its recovery trajectory and is vulnerable to emerging threats, including planned ecosystem restoration efforts that are likely to be detrimental to the dolphins’ survival. Our modeling framework demonstrates an approach for integrating different sources and types of data, highlights the utility of expert elicitation for indeterminable input parameters, and emphasizes the importance of considering and monitoring long-term health of long-lived species subject to environmental disasters. Article impact statement: Oil spills can have long-term consequences for the health of long-lived species; thus, effective restoration and monitoring are needed.     

Society organization,not pathogenic viruses,is the fundamental cause of pandemics

Environmental Chemistry Letters -     

High-resolution mapping of premature mortality induced by atmospheric particulate matter in China

Environmental Chemistry Letters - Air pollution, measured by the concentration of airborne particulate matter with diameter below 2.5 μm (PM2.5), is known to cause globally adverse...     

A Recycling Alternative for Expanded Polystyrene Residues Using Natural Esters

Journal of Polymers and the Environment - The objective of this research is to provide a new recycling method for one of the most consumed plastics today, since it is used for the manufacture of a...     

Residential emissions predicted as a major source of fine particulate matter in winter over the Yangtze River Delta,China

Environmental Chemistry Letters - Air pollution is an increasingly critical health issue responsible for numerous diseases and deaths worldwide. In China, to address severe air pollution in the...     

Metal speciation in landfill leachates with a focus on the influence of organic matter

This study characterises the heavy-metal content in leachates collected from eight landfills in France. In order to identify heavy metal occurrence in the different size fractions of leachates, a cascade filtration protocol was applied directly in the field, under a nitrogen gas atmosphere to avoid metal oxidation. The results of analyses performed on the leachates suggest that most of the metals are concentrated in the <30 kDa fraction, while lead, copper and cadmium show an association with larger particles. Initial speciation calculations, without considering metal association with organic matter, suggest that leachate concentrations in lead, copper, nickel and zinc are super-saturated with respect to sulphur phases. Speciation calculations that account for metal complexation with organic matter, considered as fulvic acids based on C1(s) NEXAFS spectroscopy, show that this mechanism is not sufficient to explain such deviation from equilibrium conditions. It is therefore hypothesized that the deviation results also from the influence of biological activity on the kinetics of mineral phase precipitation and dissolution, thus providing a dynamic system. The results of chemical analyses of sampled fluids are compared with speciation calculations and some implications for the assessment of metal mobility and natural attenuation in a context of landfill risk assessment are discussed.     

A classification framework for interspecific trade-offs in aquatic ecology

In some cases, wildlife management objectives directed at multiple species can conflict with one another, creating species trade-offs. For managers to effectively identify trade-offs and avoid their undesirable outcomes, they must understand the agents involved and their corresponding interactions. A literature review of interspecific trade-offs within freshwater and marine ecosystems was conducted to illustrate the scope of potential interspecific trade-offs that may occur. We identified common pitfalls that lead to failed recognition of interspecific trade-offs, including, single-species management and limited consideration of the spatial and temporal scale of ecosystems and their management regimes. We devised a classification framework of common interspecific trade-offs within aquatic systems. The classification can help managers determine whether the conflict is species based through direct relationships (i.e., predator–prey, competition, other antagonistic relationships) or indirect relationships involving intermediate species (i.e., conflict-generating species) or whether the conflict is driven by opposing management objectives for species that would otherwise not interact (i.e., nontarget management effects). Once the nature and scope of trade-offs are understood, existing decision-making tools, such as structured decision-making and real-options analysis, can be incorporated to improve the management of aquatic ecosystems. Article Impact Statement: A synthesis of interspecific trade-offs in aquatic ecosystems supports their identification and resolution.     

Innovative technologies to remove alkylphenols from wastewater: a review

Environmental Chemistry Letters - Alkylphenols and alkylphenol polyethoxylates are emerging hazardous contaminants due in particular to their endocrine-disrupting properties. These compounds...     

Professor Casu’s contribution to cyclodextrins,the remarkable cage-shaped molecules: a review

Cyclodextrins are cage-shaped molecules having the remarkable ability to trap smaller compounds, and have thus led to applications in many disciplines such as medicine to increase the bioavailability of hydrophobic drugs. This historical review summarizes the outstanding contribution of the late Professor Benito Casu to cyclodextrin research and, more generally, to the chemistry and biochemistry of linear and cyclic oligosaccharides, polysaccharides, glycosaminoglycans, and heparin. Professor Casu was the first to elucidate the structure and conformations of cyclodextrins by infrared spectroscopy and proton nuclear magnetic resonance (NMR). In particular, he showed that trapped compounds induced a shift of H peaks in NMR due to the shielding effect of cyclodextrins. He also demonstrated that the d-glucopyranose cyclodextrin units are in the C-1 chair conformation by analyzing α-cyclodextrin by NMR in dimethylsulfoxide-d₆.

     

Assessing conservation status with extensive but low-resolution data: Application of frequentist and Bayesian models to endangered Athabasca River rainbow trout

Use of extensive but low-resolution abundance data is common in the assessment of species at-risk status based on quantitative decline criteria under International Union for Conservation of Nature (IUCN) and national endangered species legislation. Such data can be problematic for 3 reasons. First, statistical power to reject the null hypothesis of no change is often low because of small sample size and high sampling uncertainty leading to a high frequency of type II errors. Second, range-wide assessments composed of multiple site-specific observations do not effectively weight site-specific trends into global trends. Third, uncertainty in site-specific temporal trends and relative abundance are not propagated at the appropriate spatial scale. A common result is the propensity to underestimate the magnitude of declines and therefore fail to identify the appropriate at-risk status for a species. We used 3 statistical approaches, from simple to more complex, to estimate temporal decline rates for a designatable unit (DU) of rainbow trout in the Athabasca River watershed in western Canada. This DU is considered a native species for purposes of listing because of its genetic composition characterized as >0.95 indigenous origin in the face of continuing introgressive hybridization with introduced populations in the watershed. Analysis of abundance trends from 57 time series with a fixed-effects model identified 33 sites with negative trends, but only 2 were statistically significant. By contrast, a hierarchical linear mixed model weighted by site-specific abundance provided a DU-wide decline estimate of 16.4% per year and a 3-generation decline of 93.2%. A hierarchical Bayesian mixed model yielded a similar 3-generation decline trend of 91.3% and the posterior distribution showed that the estimate had a >99% probability of exceeding thresholds for an endangered listing. We conclude that the Bayesian approach was the most useful because it provided a probabilistic statement of threshold exceedance in support of an at-risk status recommendation.