Limited scope for reproductive senescence in wild populations of a short-lived fish

Senescence in wild populations was long considered negligible but current evidence suggests that it is widespread in natural populations of mammals and birds, affecting the survival and reproductive output of older individuals. In contrast, little is known about reproductive senescence in species with asymptotic growth that can keep increasing their reproductive output as they grow older and larger. Using a cross-sectional study, we tested age-related decline in fecundity and relative allocation to reproduction in five wild populations of an annual killifish, Nothobranchius furzeri (Cyprinodontiformes). We did not detect any decline in absolute female egg production over their short lifespan in the wild. Relative fecundity (egg production controlled for female body mass) tended to decrease with age. This effect was driven primarily by a single population that survived 17 weeks, almost twice as long as the median persistence of the other four study populations. There was no decrease in relative ovary mass while in males, relative testes mass actually increased with age. Intra-population variation in relative ovary mass increased in older females suggesting heterogeneity in individual trajectories of female reproductive allocation. Overall, we demonstrate that annual killifish do not experience significant age-related decline in reproductive functions during their very short lifespan in the wild despite the marked deterioration of gonad tissue detected in captivity.     

Subsistence over symbolism: the role of transnational municipal networks on cities’ climate policy innovation and adoption

Urban areas account for the majority of global greenhouse gas emissions, and increasingly, it is city governments that are adopting and implementing climate mitigation policies. Many municipal governments have joined two different global city networks that aim to promote climate policy development at the urban scale, and there is qualitative evidence that such networks play an important role in motivating cities to adopt climate policies and helping them to implement them. Our study objective is to test this proposition quantitatively, making use of a global database on cities’ environmental policy adoption, and also taking into account a large number of other factors that could play a role in climate policy adoption. Controlling for these other factors, we find that network membership does make a significant difference in the number of different measures that city governments adopt. We also find that there are significant differences between the two different networks, suggesting that the nature of the services that such networks offer their members can play an important role. Our findings lead to the provision of a set of global mitigation strategies: First of all, joining the city networks can lead to a generation of global strategies which can result into climate mitigation benefits. However, cities are required to select the network which provides proper tailor made policies. Second, in the absence of concrete international commitments at the local level, city networks lay the ground for global governance and enable cities to adopt policies independently and proactively. Third, consideration of co-benefits of climate policies can optimize the development of global strategies.     

Electricity price subsidy or carbon-trading subsidy: which is more efficient to develop photovoltaic power generation from a government perspective?

Photovoltaic (PV) power generation has high investment costs and long payback periods. Therefore, during early deployment, subsidies are fundamental and necessary to accelerate its development. We consider the question of how to promote PV industry development and which supporting policy is more efficient in accelerating adoption. Based on real options method, we establish a subsidy efficiency model for electricity price subsidies and carbon-trading subsidies under two sources of uncertainty power demand for PV and the investment cost-reduction probability. This study aims to compare the two forms of subsidies from the perspective of promoting immediate investment and maximizing the subsidy policy efficiency for the government (minimizing the unit carbon-mitigation cost) and advance relevant policy proposals. An example of China is provided to test the effectiveness of the model and to illustrate the implications of the solutions. The results show that a carbon-trading subsidy is better than an electricity price subsidy and that it is essential to improve the demand for the power produced by the PV power-generation projects. Lower market risk and driving technology progress are both conducive to improving the subsidy efficiency. This study also provides a meaningful reference for governments worldwide to formulate subsidy programs to support PV power-generation projects.     

Energy-saving benefits from plug-in hybrid electric vehicles: perspectives based on real-world measurements

Promoting plug-in hybrid vehicles (PHEV) is one important option to mitigate greenhouse gas emissions and air pollutants for road transportation sector. In 2015, more than 220,000 new PHEVs were registered across the world, indicating a 25-fold growth during 2011–2015. However, more criticizes have been put forward against the current energy efficiency regulations for vehicles that are mostly depended on laboratory measurements. To better understand the real-world energy-saving and emission mitigation benefits from PHEVs, we conducted on-road testing experiments under various operating conditions for two in-use PHEVs in Beijing, China. Our results indicate that air condition usage, congested traffic conditions, and higher loading mass could significantly increase energy consumption and shorten actual all-electric distance for PHEVs. For example, the worst case (14.1 km) would occur under harshest usage conditions, which is lower by at least 35% than the claimed range over 20 km. In charge sustaining (CS) mode, real-world fuel consumption also presents a large range from 3.5 L/100 km to 6.3 L/100 km because of varying usage conditions. Furthermore, various vehicle users have significantly different travel profiles, which would lead to large heterogeneity of emission mitigation benefits among individual PHEV adopters. Therefore, this study suggests that the global policy makers should use real-world energy efficiency of emerging electrified powertrain techniques as criteria to formulate relevant regulations and supportive policies.     

Valuing deaths or years of life lost? Economic benefits of avoided mortality from early heat warning systems

The study aims to explore the main drivers influencing the economic appraisal of heat warning systems by integrating epidemiological modelling and benefit-cost analysis. To shed insights on heat wave mortality valuation, we consider three valuation schemes: (i) a traditional one, where the value of a statistical life (VSL) is applied to both displaced and premature mortality; (ii) an intermediate one, with VSL applied for premature mortality and value of a life year (VOLY) for displaced mortality; and (iii) a conservative one, where both premature and displaced mortality are quantified in terms of loss of life expectancy, and then valued using the VOLY approach. When applying these three schemes to Madrid (Spain), we obtain a benefit-cost ratio varying from 12 to 3700. We find that the choice of the valuation scheme has the largest influence, whereas other parameters such as attributable risk, displaced mortality ratio, or the comprehensiveness and effectiveness of the heat warning system are less influential. The results raise the question of which is the most appropriate approach to value mortality in the context of heat waves, given that the lower bound estimate for the benefit-cost ratio (option iii using VOLY) is up to two orders of magnitude lower than the value based on the traditional VSL approach (option i). The choice of the valuation methodology has significant implications for public health authorities at the local and regional scale, which becomes highly relevant for locations where the application of the VOLY approach could lead to benefit-cost ratios significantly lower than 1. We propose that specific metrics for premature and displaced VOLYs should be developed for the context of heat waves. Until such values are available, we suggest testing the economic viability of heat warning systems under the three proposed valuation schemes (i–iii) and using values for VOLY commonly applied in air pollution as the health end points are similar. Lastly, periodical reassessment of heat alert plans should be performed by public health authorities to monitor their long-term viability and cost-effectiveness.     

Environmental Surveillance for Noroviruses in Selected South African Wastewaters 2015–2016: Emergence of the Novel GII.17

Norovirus (NoV) GII.4 is the predominant genotype associated with gastroenteritis pandemics and new strains emerge every 2–3 years. Between 2008 and 2011, environmental studies in South Africa (SA) reported NoVs in 63% of the sewage-polluted river water samples. The aim of this study was to assess whether wastewater samples could be used for routine surveillance of NoVs, including GII.4 variants. From April 2015 to March 2016, raw sewage and effluent water samples were collected monthly from five wastewater treatment plants in SA. A total of 108 samples were screened for NoV GI and GII using real-time RT-qPCR. Overall 72.2% (78/108) of samples tested positive for NoVs with 4.6% (5/108) GI, 31.5% (34/108) GII and 36.1% (39/108) GI + GII strains being detected. Norovirus concentrations ranged from 1.02 × 10² to 3.41 × 10⁶ genome copies/litre for GI and 5.00 × 10³ to 1.31 × 10⁶ genome copies/litre for GII. Sixteen NoV genotypes (GI.2, GI.3, GI.4, GI.5, GI.6, GII.2, GII.3, GII.4, GII.7, GII.9, GII.10, GII.14, GII.16, GII.17, GII.20, and GII.21) were identified. Norovirus GII.2 and GII.17 co-dominated and the majority of GII.17 strains clustered with the novel Kawasaki 2014 variant. Sewage surveillance facilitated detection of Kawasaki 2014 in SA, which to date has not been detected with surveillance in children with gastroenteritis <5 years of age. Combined surveillance in the clinical setting and environment appears to be a valuable strategy to monitor emergence of NoV strains in countries that lack NoV outbreak surveillance.     

Oyster Contamination with Human Noroviruses Impacted by Urban Drainage and Seasonal Flooding in Vietnam

This study investigated the level of norovirus contamination in oysters collected at a lagoon receiving urban drainage from Hue City for 17 months (August 2015–December 2016). We also investigated the genetic diversity of norovirus GI and GII in oyster and wastewater samples by using pyrosequencing to evaluate the effect of urban drainage on norovirus contamination of oysters. A total of 34 oyster samples were collected at two sampling sites (stations A and B) in a lagoon. Norovirus GI was more frequently detected than GII (positive rate 79 vs. 41%). Maximum concentrations of GI and GII were 2.4 × 10⁵ and 2.3 × 10⁴ copies/g, respectively. Co-contamination with GI and GII was observed in 35% of samples. Norovirus GII concentration was higher at station A in the flood season than in the dry season (P = 0.04, Wilcoxon signed-rank test). Six genotypes (GI.2, GI.3, GI.5, GII.2, GII.3, and GII.4) were identified in both wastewater and oyster samples, and genetically similar or identical sequences were obtained from the two types of samples. These observations suggest that urban drainage and seasonal flooding contribute to norovirus contamination of oysters in the study area.     

Managing the cost of emissions for durable,carbon-containing products

We recognize that carbon-containing products do not decay and release CO₂ to the atmosphere instantaneously, but release that carbon over extended periods of time. For an initial production of a stock of carbon-containing product, we can treat the release as a probability distribution covering the time over which that release occurs. The probability distribution that models the carbon release predicts the amount of carbon that is released as a function of time. The use of a probability distribution in accounting for the release of carbon to the atmosphere realizes a fundamental shift from the idea that all carbon-containing products contribute to a single pool that decays in proportion to the size of the stock. Viewing the release of carbon as a continuous probabilistic process introduces some theoretical opportunities not available in the former paradigm by taking advantage of other fields where the use of probability distributions has been prevalent for many decades. In particular, theories developed in the life insurance industry can guide the development of pricing and payment structures for dealing with the costs associated with the oxidation and release of carbon. These costs can arise from a number of proposed policies (cap and trade, carbon tax, social cost of carbon, etc), but in the end they all result in there being a cost to releasing carbon to the atmosphere. If there is a cost to the emitter for CO₂ emissions, payment for that cost will depend on both when the emissions actually occur and how payment is made. Here we outline some of the pricing and payment structures that are possible which result from analogous theories in the life insurance industry. This development not only provides useful constructs for valuing sequestered carbon, but highlights additional motivations for employing a probability distribution approach to unify accounting methodologies for stocks of carbon containing products.     

Spatial and temporal land use and carbon stock changes in Uganda: implications for a future REDD strategy

Using a map overlay procedure in a Geographical Information System environment, we quantify and map major land use and land cover (LULC) change patterns in Uganda period 1990–2005 and determine whether the transitions were random or systematic. The analysis reveals that the most dominant systematic land use change processes were deforestation (woodland to subsistence farmland—3.32%); forest degradation (woodland to bushland (4.01%) and grassland (4.08%) and bush/grassland conversion to cropland (5.5%) all resulting in a net reduction in forests (6.1%). Applying an inductive approach based on logistic regression and trend analyses of observed changes we analyzed key drivers of LULC change. Significant predictors of forest land use change included protection status, market access, poverty, slope, soil quality and presence/absence of a stream network. Market access, poverty and population all decreased the log odds of retaining forests. In addition, poverty also increased the likelihood of degradation. An increase in slope decreased the likelihood of deforestation. Using the stock change and gain/loss approaches we estimated the change in forest carbon stocks and emissions from deforestation and forest degradation. Results indicate a negligible increase in forest carbon stocks (3,260 t C yr-1) in the period 1990–2005 when compared to the emissions due to deforestation and forest degradation (2.67 million t C yr-1). In light of the dominant forest land use change patterns, the drivers and change in carbon stocks, we discuss options which could be pursued to implement a future national REDD plus strategy which considers livelihood, biodiversity and climate change mitigation objectives.     

Assessment and Evaluation of an Integrated Hybrid Anaerobic–Aerobic Sewage Treatment System for the Removal of Enteric Viruses

The capability of a cost-effective and a small size decentralized pilot wastewater treatment plant (WWTP) to remove enteric viruses such as rotavirus, norovirus genogroup I (GGI), norovirus genogroup II (GGII), Hepatitis E virus (HEV), and adenovirus was studied. This pilot plant is an integrated hybrid anaerobic/aerobic setup which consisted of anaerobic sludge blanket (UASB), biological aerated filter (BAF), and inclined plate settler (IPS). Both the UASB and BAF are packed with a non-woven polyester fabric (NWPF). Results indicated that the overall log₁₀ reductions of enteric viruses’ genome copies through the whole system were 3.1 ± 1, 3.3 ± 0.5, and 2.6 ± 0.9 log₁₀ for rotavirus, norovirus GGI, and adenovirus, respectively. Reduction efficiency for both norovirus GGII and HEV after the different treatment steps could not be calculated because there were no significant numbers of positive samples for both viruses. The overall reduction of rotavirus infectious units through the whole system was 2.2 ± 0.8 log₁₀ reduction which is very close to the overall log₁₀ reduction of adenovirus infectious units through the whole system which was 2.1 ± 0.8 log₁₀ reduction. There was no considerable difference in the removal efficiency for different rotavirus G and P types. Adenovirus 41 was the only type detected in the all positive samples. Although the pilot WWTP investigated is cost effective, has a small footprint, does not need a long distance network pipes, and easy to operate, its efficiency to remove enteric viruses is comparable with the conventional centralized WWTPs.