Assessing ICT risk through a Monte Carlo method

To assess and manage the risk due to an information and communication system before its deployment, data of interest can be produced by a Monte Carlo method. This paper presents Haruspex, a software tool that applies a Monte Carlo method to simulate intelligent and adaptive threat agents that reach predefined goals through plan with several attacks. The samples that Haruspex collects are used to compute statistics on the agent’s impacts and their plans as well as to select cost-effective countermeasures. We describe the rationale and the implementation of Haruspex, the inputs it requires and the simulation of how the agents select and implement their plans. After discussing the validation and the performance of the first version of Haruspex, we present a case study and the first set of experimental results.     

Integrated assessment of future CAP policies: land use changes,spatial patterns and targeting

The recent and upcoming reforms of the Common Agricultural Policies (CAPs) aim at strengthening the multifunctional role of agriculture, acknowledging the differences in economic, environmental and social potentials within European regions. This paper presents results from an integrated assessment of existing and future policies within the framework set up in the FP6 EU project MEA-Scope. Spatial explicit procedures allow for the MEA-Scope modelling tools to provide information related to regional, environmental and socio-economics settings. The impact of different policy scenarios on structural change, land abandonment and cropping pattern of typical farms has been assessed based on linked agent-based (ABM) and Linear Programming (LP) models at regional and farm scale for two study areas. For the German case study area Ostprignitz-Ruppin (OPR), the issue of policy targeting has been addressed by relating non-commodity outputs (NCOs) to soil quality and protection status. For the Italian case study area (Mugello), changes in landscape patterns in terms of increased fragmentation or homogeneity as affected by changes in agricultural intensity have been analysed using semivariance analysis. The spatial explicit approach highlighted the relevance of case study research in order to identifying response structures and explaining policy implementation patterns.     

Pesticide exposure and serum organochlorine residuals among testicular cancer patients and healthy controls

The incidence of testicular cancer (TC) has been increasing worldwide during the last decades. The reasons of the increase remains unknown, but recent findings suggest that organochlorine pesticides (OPs) could influence the development of TC. A hospital-based case-control study of 50 cases and 48 controls was conducted to determine whether environmental exposure to OPs is associated with the risk of TC, and by measuring serum concentrations of OPs, including p,p'-dichlorodiphenyldichloroethylene (p,p'-DDE) isomer and hexachlorobenzene (HCB) in participants. A significant association was observed between TC and household insecticide use (odds ratio [OR] = 3.01, 95 % CI: 1.11-8.14; OR(adjusted) = 3.23, 95 % CI: 1.15-9.11). Crude and adjusted ORs for TC were also significantly associated with higher serum concentrations of total OPs (OR = 3.15, 95 % CI: 1.00-9.91; OR(adjusted) = 3.34, 95 % CI: 1.09-10.17) in cases compared with controls. These findings give additional support to the results of previous research that suggest that some environmental exposures to OPs may be implicated in the pathogenesis of TC.     

The Fate of Priority Areas for Conservation in Protected Areas: A Fine-Scale Markov Chain Approach

Park managers in alpine areas must deal with the increase in forest coverage that has been observed in most European mountain areas, where traditional farming and agricultural practices have been abandoned. The aim of this study is to develop a fine-scale model of a broad area to support the managers of Paneveggio Nature Park (Italy) in conservation planning by focusing on the fate of priority areas for conservation in the next 50–100 years. GIS analyses were performed to assess the afforestation dynamic over time using two historical maps (from 1859 and 1936) and a series of aerial photographs and ortho-photos (taken from 1954 to 2006) covering a time span of 150 years. The results show an increase in the forest surface area of about 35%. Additionally, the forest became progressively more compact and less fragmented, with a consequent loss of ecotones and open habitats that are important for biodiversity. Markov chain-cellular automata models were used to project future changes, evaluating the effects on a habitat scale. Simulations show that some habitats defined as priority by the EU Habitat Directive will be compromised by the forest expansion by 2050 and suffer a consistent loss by 2100. This protocol, applied to other areas, can be used for designing long-term management measures with a focus on habitats where conservation status is at risk.     

Chlorpyrifos residues levels in fruits and vegetables after field treatment

Chlorpyrifos (O,O-diethyl O-3,5,6-trichloro-2-pyridyl phosphorothioate) was applied with three different formulations on oranges, peaches, tomatoes, wine and table grapes, and its behaviour was evaluated after field treatment. The formulations applied were emulsifiable concentrates (EC), microencapsulates (ME), and wettable granules (WG). The residues were similar in all crops studied in the EC and WG experiments, except peaches with WG treatment, the residue amount was lower than EC values. Tomatoes which were grown in greenhouse showed similar residues in all treatments just after treatment. Wine and table grapes showed different decline curves in the EC experiments ascribable to the different growing technology. Instrumental limit of determination (LOD) and limit of quantification (LOQ) for all matrices were 0.01, and 0.03 mg kg?1, respectively. Repeated treatments showed that Chlorpyrifos can accumulate leading to residue levels at the preharvest interval (PHI) over the maximum residue level (MRL), especially on oranges and peaches. Among the formulates used ME showed the higher risk of residues over the MRL at harvest.     

Neural network modelling for the analysis of forcings/temperatures relationships at different scales in the climate system

A fully non-linear analysis of forcing influences on temperatures is performed in the climate system by means of neural network modelling. Two case studies are investigated, in order to establish the main factors that drove the temperature behaviour at both global and regional scales in the last 140 years. In particular, our neural network model shows the ability to catch non-linear relationships among these variables and to reconstruct temperature records with a high degree of accuracy. In this framework, we clearly show the need of including anthropogenic inputs for explaining the temperature behaviour at global scale and recognise the role of El Niño southern oscillation for catching the inter-annual variability of temperature data. Furthermore, we analyse the relative influence of global forcing and a regional circulation pattern in determining the winter temperatures in Central England, showing that the North Atlantic oscillation represents the driven element in this case study. Our modelling activity and results can be very useful for simple assessments of relationships in the complex climate system and for identifying the fundamental elements leading to a successful downscaling of atmosphere–ocean general circulation models.     

Shrines in Central Italy conserve plant diversity and large trees

Sacred natural sites (SNS) are instances of biocultural landscapes protected for spiritual motives. These sites frequently host important biological values in areas of Asia and Africa, where traditional resource management is still upheld by local communities. In contrast, the biodiversity value of SNS has hardly been quantitatively tested in Western contexts, where customs and traditions have relatively lost importance due to modernization and secularization. To assess whether SNS in Western contexts retain value for biodiversity, we studied plant species composition at 30 SNS in Central Italy and compared them with a paired set of similar but not sacred reference sites. We demonstrate that SNS are important for conserving stands of large trees and habitat heterogeneity across different land-cover types. Further, SNS harbor higher plant species richness and a more valuable plant species pool, and significantly contribute to diversity at the landscape scale. We suggest that these patterns are related not only to pre-existent features, but also to traditional management. Conservation of SNS should take into account these specificities, and their cultural as well as biological values, by supporting the continuation of traditional management practices.

Electronic supplementary material

The online version of this article (doi:10.1007/s13280-015-0738-5) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.     

Aluminium flows in vehicles: enhancing the recovery at end-of-life

The transportation sector constitutes the major end-use market for aluminium-containing products and expectations for the future do indicate that aluminium will increase at 140 kg per vehicle. Moreover, up to 75 % aluminium recycled in Europe is used in transportation: thus, metal scrap recovered from ELVs is a key lever to act for closing material cycles. However, although the management chain of ELVs has an established procedure and aluminium scrap is usually recovered in shredding plants, a considerable fraction of the metal particles ends up in the light fraction called car fluff and is then landfilled. In this study we investigated potential of enhancing the recovery of aluminium scrap from the light fluff treatment. With this goal, the quantity of aluminium embedded in the Italian transport sector in the last 62 years was estimated, and a campaign of characterization in size and shape distribution of aluminium particles in the light fluff output has been carried out. The results estimated up to about 560,000 tons of metal are potentially recoverable from the treatment of light fluff at current operating conditions, but relevant improvements may be achieve when size and shape distribution criteria are adopt to implement eddy currents separation for a quantitative metal recovery.     

Pyrimethanil residues on table grapes Italia after field treatment

Residues of the pyrimidine fungicide pyrimethanil [N-(4,6-dimethylpyrimidin-2yl)aniline] were determined in table grapes "Italia" by gas chromatography nitrogen-phosphorus detector (GC-NPD). Pesticides were extracted from grapes with ethyl acetate and hexane solution (1:1 v/v), and were analyzed without any further clean up. Pyrimethanil was confirmed by high-performance liquid chromatography (HPLC) fitted with a diode array detector (DAD) and electrospray ionization mass spectrometry (ESI-MS) in the select ion-monitoring mode (SIM). The residue of pyrimethanil was under the legal limit immediately after treatment, and showed a half-life time, calculated as a reaction of pseudo first order, of 12 days, with a regression coefficient of 0.9954. Recoveries from fortified grapes ranged between 90 and 113% with a maximum coefficient of variation (CV) of 11%. The calculated limits of detection and quantitation for pyrimethanil were 0.005 and 0.01 mg/kg, respectively.