组合优化的能源消费量预测模型

针对非等间距灰色系统预测中存在误差较大的问题，结合序列本身的特点，利用世界能源消费的历史数据，采用3种灰色预测模型与神经网络进行组合优化，建立了灰色神经网络的能源消费量组合预测模型。实证分析结果表明，提高了模型的拟合和预测精度，拓宽了应用范围。该模型可对能源的消费趋势进行预测，为科学分析能源结构提供依据。     

我国城市生活垃圾的处理和发展趋势

城市生活垃圾给城市环境造成了严重污染，威胁了城市居民的生存环境和经济、社会的可持续发展。目前，国内采取的垃圾处理技术主要有卫生填埋、焚烧、堆肥等，热解技术由于具有资源回收率高、二次污染小、综合效益好等优点，越来越适合我国中小城市的垃圾处理。垃圾气化技术的研究成为当今世界的热点。此外，我国对垃圾衍生燃料的研究也刚刚起步。为促进城市持续、稳定的发展，提出了垃圾分类收集、分拣、综合利用垃圾处理技术的措施。     

长时间单调模拟驾驶对疲劳的影响研究

通过模拟驾驶实验,综合评估长时间驾驶以及单调环境对驾驶员疲劳程度的影响是笔者研究的主要课题内容。借助于在模拟驾驶座舱上,4个健康样本分别参加高速公路(单调环境)和一般公路(非单调环境)的两组驾驶仿真实验,每组测试均持续两小时,一共进行10次实验。实验过程中,样本的操控数据(车速和方向盘转角)、反应时间、心电信号、主观疲劳状况等都同步记录并保存。实验结果表明长时间驾驶对操控能力、反应时间、心率、主观疲劳都有显著性影响(p<0.050),单调环境(高速公路)和非单调环境(一般公路)相比,车速方差区别显著,而尽管被试在高速公路的单调环境下驾驶后主观感觉更疲劳一些,但反应时间、心率等因素并没有显著性差异。     

我国民航灾害应急联动机制优化研究

针对我国现行的民航灾害应急联动救援体系所存在着多头指挥、组织形式不明确、责任关系不协调、信息沟通不顺畅、资源调度不合理等问题,运用文献检索、理论分析与实地调研相结合的方法,笔者提出优化思路:民航灾害应急联动机制应以各级民航管理当局的飞行事故应急指挥部为主要指挥决策者,采用虚拟的网络式组织形式,理顺联动单位的责任与关系,将应急联动的信息网络与各地突发公共危机事件的信息平台接轨,成立全国统一的、具有双重功能的民航灾害应急资源调度中心。其中,对民航灾害应急联动虚拟网络组织形式的设计,较好地改进了现行组织的效率,体现了快速反应和协调行动的要求。     

Assessing the sustainability of major cities in China

Rapid urbanization in the developing world calls for attention to address the issue of urban sustainability, especially in emerging countries such as China, where social equity and environmental conditions have been marginalized by the rapid economic development. In this paper, we addressed the above issue with an attempt to answer the following questions: (1) How did the sustainability of Chinese cities evolve over time? (2) What are the driving forces for the evolution? By constructing a composite index that incorporates three major aspects of sustainability, economy, environment, and social equity, we characterized the recent evolution of Chinese cities and assessed the disparity among regions in terms of the sustainability measures. Further, we analyzed the driving forces for the change of sustainability indices through a driving force-pressure-state-effect model. We substantiate our numerical analysis of Chinese cities with a detailed case study of Urumqi, the capital of Xinjiang Autonomous Region, which has experienced significant change over the past 3 decades in every aspect of sustainability. We highlight some fundamental socioeconomic driving forces that have caused spatial restructuring, reflected by land-use change, and consequently impacted the urban environment of Urumqi. A brief case analysis of Guangzhou is also provided.     

Regulating the hydrolysis of organic wastes by micro-aeration and effluent recirculation

In this study, the effects of micro-aeration and liquid recirculation on the hydrolysis of vegetable and flower wastes during two-phase solid–liquid anaerobic digestion were assessed. To accomplish this, we evaluated the hydrolysis of five batches of waste that were treated under the following conditions: anaerobic, insufficient micro-aeration (aeration for 5 min every 24 h), and sufficient micro-aeration (aeration for 5 min every 12, 4 and 1 h). Hydrolysis was found to depend on the level of micro-aeration. Specifically, insufficient micro-aeration led to unstable and decreased performance. Conversely, sufficient micro-aeration promoted the hydrolysis of easily biodegradable carbohydrates and proteins, but the microbial activity was later impaired by liquid recirculation using methanogenic effluent. The hydrolysis efficiency under anaerobic conditions was comparable to the efficiency observed under sufficient micro-aeration, while the cumulative TOC of the anaerobic batch was 1.4–2.4 times higher than that of the micro-aerated batches. In addition, liquid recirculation did not have a negative effect on the development of microbial activity under anaerobic conditions, which resulted in the lignocelluloses having a higher hydrolysis efficiency.     

汉江上游郧县曲远河河口段全新世古洪水水文状态研究

对汉江上游河谷郧县曲远河河口剖面进行了沉积学、粒度、磁化率和烧失量的研究。结果表明：夹在古土壤中的灰白色沉积层是典型的古洪水滞流沉积物，记录了一次特大洪水事件，用地层对比法和OSL方法确定其发生时间为4 950~5 450 a B.P.。用古洪水SWD尖灭点法确定古洪水行洪水位高程为169 m，采用比降法恢复其洪峰流量为60 577 m3/s。根据2011年汉江上游洪水洪痕，用相同的方法对洪峰流量进行了反演，误差为-411％，说明用比降法恢复的古洪水洪峰流量是可靠的     

Externalities, Floating Population and Spatial Agglomeration

With the further development of socialist market economy, the mobility of factor markets in China, especially the labor market, is strengthened. Externalities interacts with the agglomeration of productive factors. Under the framework of new economic geography, this article presents a theoretical model involving the endogenous population density affected by urban externalities. Results show that the population density is more concentrated around the center because the degree and extent of interaction between individuals intensifies when the distance from the center decreases. When there are several externalities resources, the aggregation of externalities changes the configuration of spatial factor allocation. These results fit well with the empirical facts about the decreasing density of floating population along the cities of Guangzhou, Dongguan and Shenzhen in Guangdong Province which is situated in the eastern coast of the Pearl River Delta. We fred that under the impacts of externalities released from Hong Kong into the coast, floating population was more concentrated around Shenzhen and Dongguan, which are more adjacent to Hong Kong compared with Guangzhou City.     

“双碳”目标约束下农作物种植结构对农业绿色全要素生产率的影响研究：以陕西省为例

在“双碳”目标的约束下，探究农作物种植结构对农业绿色全要素生产率的影响程度能够有效促进农业农村高质量发展。基于2000—2019年陕西省10个地市的面板数据，运用方向距离函数和Global Malmquist-Luenberger指数对“双碳”目标约束下的农业绿色全要素生产率进行测算，采用Tobit回归模型分析农作物种植结构变化对农业绿色全要素生产率的影响因子，并探讨影响农业绿色全要素生产率的其他潜在因素。研究表明：陕西省农业绿色全要素生产率在“双碳”目标的约束下，总体有所提升，但各地市间存在地区差异性；粮食作物种植面积的增长对农业绿色全要素生产率具有显著的积极影响；农户生计保障对农业绿色全要素生产率有显著的正向作用，农业机械化水平和自然环境条件均对农业绿色全要素生产率有显著的负向作用。优化农作物种植结构、减少农业碳排放量以及提升农业绿色全要素生产率，是全面促进乡村振兴、加快农业高质量发展的关键。     

High Environmental Cost behind Low China Price

China has won the name of the world factory being famous for exporting a great deal of and various kinds of low-price merchandise. However, most of Chinese exports are primary goods or manufactured products that create heavy pollution and require intensive use of resources. Chinese products go abroad, but their following harms stay behind. The article analyzes many obvious low-price facts in China and their concomitant terrible environmental results in detail, and points out that there are huge hidden troubles in the way of China＇s sustainable development behind her seemingly flourishing economy.