Transition Pathways to Sustainable Agricultural Water Management: A Review of Integrated Modeling Approaches

Agricultural water management (AWM) is an interdisciplinary concern, cutting across traditional domains such as agronomy, climatology, geology, economics, and sociology. Each of these disciplines has developed numerous process‐based and empirical models for AWM. However, models that simulate all major hydrologic, water quality, and crop growth processes in agricultural systems are still lacking. As computers become more powerful, more researchers are choosing to integrate existing models to account for these major processes rather than building new cross‐disciplinary models. Model integration carries the hope that, as in a real system, the sum of the model will be greater than the parts. However, models based upon simplified and unrealistic assumptions of physical or empirical processes can generate misleading results which are not useful for informing policy. In this article, we use literature and case studies from the High Plains Aquifer and Southeastern United States regions to elucidate the challenges and opportunities associated with integrated modeling for AWM and recommend conditions in which to use integrated models. Additionally, we examine the potential contributions of integrated modeling to AWM — the actual practice of conserving water while maximizing productivity. Editor's note : This paper is part of the featured series on Optimizing Ogallala Aquifer Water Use to Sustain Food Systems. See the February 2019 issue for the introduction and background to the series.     

Contrasting demographic histories in a pair of allopatric,sibling species of fish (Arripidae) from environments with contrasting glacial histories

Although Pleistocene glacial cycles are regularly used to explain many aspects of the demographic history of coastal marine species, the present study is one of few to test a priori predictions about these effects. Nucleotide sequence variation in the cytochrome b gene of the mtDNA and allele frequency variation at intron loci in the nDNA were compared between two species of Arripis (Australian Salmon) that are closely related and biologically similar other than for their allopatric distributions. The results suggest that A. truttaceus, which resides to the west of the Bass Strait, exhibits lower levels of genetic diversity and experienced a severe population bottleneck during the LGM followed by an expansion commencing some 17,000 years ago. In contrast, the population of A. trutta, which resides to the east of the Bass Strait, appears to have been largely unaffected by the LGM and has been expanding over the past 100,000 years or more. These results are consistent with a priori predictions, based on paleo-oceanographic data, that the demographic history of A. truttaceus has been more strongly affected by glacial periods by virtue of its distribution to the west of Bass Strait. Data on two other congeners are also presented to provide context for the results for A. trutta and A. truttaceus.     

Passive acoustic monitoring of the decline of Mexico's critically endangered vaquita

The vaquita (Phocoena sinus) is the world's most endangered marine mammal with approximately 245 individuals remaining in 2008. This species of porpoise is endemic to the northern Gulf of California, Mexico, and historically the population has declined because of unsustainable bycatch in gillnets. An illegal gillnet fishery for an endangered fish, the totoaba (Totoaba macdonaldi), has recently resurged throughout the vaquita's range. The secretive but lucrative wildlife trade with China for totoaba swim bladders has probably increased vaquita bycatch mortality by an unknown amount. Precise population monitoring by visual surveys is difficult because vaquitas are inherently hard to see and have now become so rare that sighting rates are very low. However, their echolocation clicks can be identified readily on specialized acoustic detectors. Acoustic detections on an array of 46 moored detectors indicated vaquita acoustic activity declined by 80% between 2011 and 2015 in the central part of the species’ range. Statistical models estimated an annual rate of decline of 34% (95% Bayesian credible interval –48% to –21%). Based on results from 2011 to 2014, the government of Mexico enacted and is enforcing an emergency 2‐year ban on gillnets throughout the species’ range to prevent extinction, at a cost of US$74 million to compensate fishers. Developing precise acoustic monitoring methods proved critical to exposing the severity of vaquitas’ decline and emphasizes the need for continual monitoring to effectively manage critically endangered species.     

Water-quality effects of a mechanized subsurface-banding technique for applying poultry litter to perennial grassland

Poultry litter is known to be an excellent organic fertilizer, but the common practice of spreading litter on the surface of pastures has raised serious water-quality concerns and may limit potential benefits of litter applications. Because surface-applied litter is completely exposed to the atmosphere, runoff can transport nutrients into nearby streams and lakes, and much of the ammonium nitrogen volatilizes before it can enter the soil. Our previous research showed that a manual knifing technique to apply dry litter under a perennial pasture surface effectively prevented about 90% of nutrient loss with runoff from surface-applied litter, and tended to increase forage yield. However, this technique (known as subsurface banding) cannot become a practical management option for producers until it is mechanized. To begin that process, we tested an experimental single-shank, tractor-drawn implement designed to apply poultry litter in subsurface bands. Our objective was to compare this mechanized subsurface-banding method against conventional surface application to determine effects on nutrient loss with runoff from a perennial grassland treated with dry poultry litter. Early in the growing season, broiler litter was applied (6.7 dry-weight Mg ha⁻¹) to each plot (except three control plots) using one of two application methods: surface broadcast manually or subsurface banded using the tractor-drawn implement. Simulated rainfall (5 cm h⁻¹) generated 20 min of runoff from each plot for volume and analytical measurements. Results showed that subsurface-banded litter increased forage yield while decreasing nutrient (e.g. N and P) loss in runoff by at least 90% compared to surface-broadcast litter.     

On the Evaluation of Predictions from a Gaussian Plume Model

The performance of a CRSTER equivalent Gaussian plume model (CEQM) is examined using data from the EPRI Plume Model Validation study at the Klncaid, Illinois site. Four-way comparisons are made on the ordered statistics or the cumulative frequency distribution (CFD) of maximum hourly observed and predicted concentrations. Using the uniform random distribution and the lognormal random distribution as simple predictive schemes without any physical context, it Is found that the CEQM predicts a concentration CFD which matches the observed CFD significantly closer than the CFD predicted by the uniform random distribution. The two-parameter lognormal random distribution predicts the concentration CFD better than the CEQM over all concentration ranges; however, the CEQM fits the upper range of the concentration distribution better than the lognormal random distribution,, despite the fact that the predictions are generated using dispersion conditions entirely different from those of the observations. The nature of this ergodicity of distribution is probed by exercising CEQM using randomized input based on the observed frequency distributions of the Input parameters instead of feeding the hour-by-hour model input matched by time into CEQM as is customarily done. The exercise of the model by uncoupling the time linkage in model Input has no systematic effect on the predicted cumulative frequency distribution of concentrations. Only at the highest concentration range (99.5% or higher) do the two sets of predictions begin to diverge.     

Market design in cap and trade programs: Permit validity and compliance timing

Cap and trade programs have considerable heterogeneity in permit validity and compliance timing. For example, permits have different validities across time (e.g., banking, borrowing, and seasons) and space (e.g., zonal restrictions), and compliance timing can be annual, in overlapping cycles, or in multi-year periods. We discuss nine prominent cap and trade programs along these dimensions and construct a general model of permit validity and compliance timing. We derive sufficient conditions under which abatement is invariant to compliance timing, i.e., compliance timing cannot smooth abatement cost shocks. Under these conditions, (i) expected compliance costs are invariant, (ii) the variance of compliance costs increases with the delayed compliance, (iii) equilibrium prices may not be unique, and (iv) the delayed compliance equilibrium may rely on “degenerate” prices not determined by marginal abatement costs. We demonstrate the model's broad applicability by illustrating different types of temporal permit validity.     

Evaluating conservation dogs in the search for rare species

Detecting rare species is important for both threatened species management and invasive species eradication programs. Conservation scent dogs provide an olfactory survey tool that has advantages over traditional visual and auditory survey techniques for some cryptic species. From the literature, we identified 5 measures important in evaluating the use of scent dogs: precision, sensitivity, effort, cost, and comparison with other techniques. We explored the scale at which performance is evaluated and examined when field testing under real working conditions is achievable. We also identified cost differences among studies. We examined 61 studies published in 1976–2018 that reported conservation dog performance, and considered the inconsistencies in the reporting of scent dog performance among these studies. The majority of studies reported some measure of performance; however, only 8 studies reported all 3 aspects necessary for performance evaluation: precision, sensitivity, and effort. Although effort was considered in 43 studies, inconsistent methods and incomplete reporting prevented meaningful evaluation of performance and comparison among studies. Differences in cost between similar studies were influenced by geographical location and how the dog and handler were sourced for the study. To develop consistent reporting for evaluation, we recommend adoption of sensitivity, precision, and effort as standard performance measures. We recommend reporting effort as the total area and total time spent searching and reporting sensitivity and precision as proportions of the sample size. Additionally, reporting of costs, survey objectives, dog training and experience, type of detection task, and human influences will provide better opportunities for comparison within and among studies.     

Visiting a Climate-Influenced National Park: The Stability of Climate Change Perceptions

Understanding perceptions of global environmental issues, such as climate change, can help inform resource management, policy development, and communication with constituents. Although a considerable amount of research documents citizens’ perceptions of climate change, few have investigated how interactions with climate-impacted parks and protected areas influence these perceptions, and consequently elements of environmental management. Using a mixed methods Instrument Development Approach, the researchers examined the stability of park visitors’ (N = 429) climate change perceptions during a daylong interaction with climate-sensitive and influenced resources at Kenai Fjords National Park in Alaska. Results indicate that global-level beliefs about climate change remained relatively stable during a park experience, but perceptions about climate change at the park-level (e.g., impacts) appeared more malleable. Findings also revealed the type of park experience (terrestrial vs. marine) can influence the degree of change in visitors’ perceptions. Implications for communication, outreach, and park management are discussed.     

A study of the corrosion products of mild steel in high ionic strength brines

The corrosion layer on steel surfaces that formed after exposure to waste isolation pilot plant (WIPP) brines under anoxic conditions was characterized for chemical composition, thickness and phase composition. The chemical composition of the corrosion layer was determined both by X-ray photoelectron spectroscopy (XPS) and by chemical analysis of acid solutions used to remove the corrosion layer. Atomic force microscopic (AFM) images indicated that the brine-corroded surface layer shows extensive granulation along the contours of the steel surface that is characteristic of sharp polishing marks. The corrosion layer seemed to be porous and could be dissolved and detached in dilute hydrochloric acid. The corrosion layer appears to be composed of iron oxides with some ionic substitutions from the brines. The 77 K M?ssbauer spectrum recorded for iron powder leached under similar conditions indicated the corrosion layer was comprised principally of green rust.