Assessing ICT risk through a Monte Carlo method

To assess and manage the risk due to an information and communication system before its deployment, data of interest can be produced by a Monte Carlo method. This paper presents Haruspex, a software tool that applies a Monte Carlo method to simulate intelligent and adaptive threat agents that reach predefined goals through plan with several attacks. The samples that Haruspex collects are used to compute statistics on the agent’s impacts and their plans as well as to select cost-effective countermeasures. We describe the rationale and the implementation of Haruspex, the inputs it requires and the simulation of how the agents select and implement their plans. After discussing the validation and the performance of the first version of Haruspex, we present a case study and the first set of experimental results.     

A permutation-based combination of sign tests for assessing habitat selection

The analysis of habitat selection in radio-tagged animals is approached by comparing the portions of use against the portions of availability observed for each habitat type. Since data are linearly dependent with singular variance-covariance matrices, standard multivariate statistical tests cannot be applied. To bypass the problem, compositional data analysis is customarily performed via log-ratio transform of sample observations. The procedure is criticized in this paper, emphasizing the several drawbacks which may arise from the use of compositional analysis. An alternative nonparametric solution is proposed in the framework of multiple testing. The habitat use is assessed separately for each habitat type by means of the sign test performed on the original observations. The resulting p values are combined in an overall test statistic whose significance is determined permuting sample observations. The theoretical findings of the paper are checked by simulation studies. Applications to case studies previously considered in literature are discussed.     

Phototransformation of <Emphasis Type="SmallCaps">l</Emphasis>-tryptophan and formation of humic substances in water

Humic substances are poorly known, though they represent a major pool of non-biotic organic carbon on earth. In particular, there is little knowledge on the formation of humic substances by irradiation of organic matter dissolved in waters. Specifically, it is known that humic substances can be formed from proteins by photochemical processes in surface waters, but the role of single amino acids and their transformation pathways are not yet known. Therefore, here we studied the phototransformation of aqueous l-tryptophan under simulated sunlight. Irradiated l-tryptophan solutions were analyzed by absorption, fluorescence, nuclear magnetic resonance (NMR) and electron paramagnetic resonance (EPR) spectroscopies, chromatography, potentiometry and mass spectrometry (MS). The solutions appeared turbid after irradiation; therefore, nephelometry and dynamic laser light scattering were used to characterize the suspended particles. Results show that about 95% of l-tryptophan was degraded in 8-h irradiation, undergoing deamination and decarboxylation of the amino acidic moieties to release ammonium and formate. The MS signal at m/z 146 suggests the formation of 3-ethylindole, while pH-metric and NMR data revealed the presence of hydroxylated compounds. The phototransformation intermediates of l-tryptophan had fluorescence and absorption spectra similar to those of humic substances, they were able to produce ^·OH upon irradiation and tended to aggregate by both ionic and hydrophobic interactions. Overall, our findings reveal for the first time the nature of products formed upon phototransformation of l-tryptophan. Interestingly, the transformation of l-tryptophan is quite different from that of the previously studied l-tyrosine, although both compounds produce humic-like materials under irradiation.     

Quantification of singlet oxygen and hydroxyl radicals upon UV irradiation of surface water

We measured the formation rate and the steady-state concentration of hydroxyl radicals and of singlet oxygen upon irradiation of lake water. There is controversy about the importance of singlet oxygen in the environmental photochemistry, but here we show that the steady-state concentration of ¹O₂ under irradiation can be higher by about two orders of magnitude compared to the hydroxyl radical. The higher occurrence of singlet oxygen in surface waters is mainly due to a higher rate of formation, because the transformation rate constants of ¹O₂ (collision with the solvent) and of ^·OH (reaction with dissolved compounds) are comparable.     

When does centrality matter? Scientific productivity and the moderating role of research specialization and cross‐community ties

The present study addresses the ongoing debate concerning academic scientific productivity. Specifically, given the increasing number of collaborations in academia and the crucial role networks play in knowledge creation, we investigate the extent to which building social capital within the academic community represents a valuable resource for a scientist's knowledge‐creation process. We measure the social capital in terms of structural position within the academic collaborative network. Furthermore, we analyse the extent to which an academic scientist's research specialization and ties that cross‐community boundaries act as moderators of the aforementioned relationship. Empirical results derived from an analysis of an Italian academic community from 2001 to 2008 suggest academic scientists that build social capital by occupying central positions in the community outperform their more isolated colleagues. However, scientific productivity declines beyond a certain threshold value of centrality, hence revealing the existence of an inverted U‐shaped relationship. This relationship is negatively moderated by the extent to which an academic focuses research activities in few scientific knowledge domains, whereas it is positively moderated by the number of cross‐community ties established. Copyright © 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Rapid analysis of neonicotinoid insecticides in guttation drops of corn seedlings obtained from coated seeds

Regarding the hypothesis that neonicotinoid insecticides used for seed coating of agricultural crops - mainly corn, sunflower and seed rape - are related to the extensive death of honey bees, the phenomenon of corn seedling guttation has been recently considered as a possible route of exposure of bees to these systemic insecticides. In the present study, guttation drops of corn plants obtained from commercial seeds coated with thiamethoxam, clothianidin, imidacloprid and fipronil have been analyzed by an optimized fast UHPLC-DAD procedure showing excellent detection limits and accuracy, both adequate for the purpose. The young plants grown both in pots - in greenhouse - and in open field from coated seeds, produced guttation solutions containing high levels of the neonicotinoid insecticides (up to 346 mg L(-1) for imidacloprid, 102 mg L(-1) for clothianidin and 146 mg L(-1) for thiamethoxam). These concentration levels may represent lethal doses for bees that use guttation drops as a source of water. The neonicotinoid concentrations in guttation drops progressively decrease during the first 10-15 days after the emergence of the plant from the soil. Otherwise fipronil, which is a non-systemic phenylpyrazole insecticide, was never detected into guttation drops. Current results confirm that the physiological fluids of the corn plant can effectively transfer neonicotinoid insecticides from the seed onto the surface of the leaves, where guttation drops may expose bees and other insects to elevated doses of neurotoxic insecticides.     

Obstetrical outcomes following amniocentesis performed after 24 weeks of gestation: A systematic review and meta-analysis

To evaluate obstetrical outcomes for women having late amniocentesis (on or after 24 weeks). Electronic databases were searched from inception to January 1st, 2023. The obstetrical outcomes evaluated were gestational age at delivery, preterm birth (PTB) < 37 weeks, PTB within 1 week from amniocentesis, premature prelabor rupture of membranes (pPROM), chorionamnionitis, placental abruption, intrauterine fetal demise (IUFD) and termination of pregnancy (TOP). The incidence of PTB <37 weeks was 4.85% (95% CI 3.48–6.56), while the incidence of PTB within 1 week was 1.42% (95% CI 0.66–2.45). The rate of pPROM was 2.85% (95% CI 1.21–3.32). The incidence of placental abruption was 0.91% (95% CI 0.16–2.25), while the rate of IUFD was 3.66% (95% CI 0.00–14.04). The rate of women who underwent TOP was 6.37% (95%CI 1.05–15.72). When comparing amniocentesis performed before or after 32 weeks, the incidence of PTB within 1 week was 1.48% (95% CI 0.42–3.19) and 2.38% (95% CI 0.40–5.95). Amniocentesis performed late after 24 weeks of gestation is an acceptable option for patients needing prenatal diagnosis in later gestation.     

Estimating wild boar density in hunting areas by a probabilistic sampling of drive counts

Environmental and Ecological Statistics - The evaluation of wild boar density in a hunting district can be performed by accurate drive counts of boars within the drive areas assigned to each...