Modeling and Predicting Species Occurrence Using Broad-Scale Environmental Variables: an Example with Butterflies of the Great Basin

Abstract: If occurrence of individual species can be modeled as a function of easily quantified environmental variables (e.g., derived from a geographic information system [GIS]) and the predictions of these models are demonstrably successful, then the scientific foundation for management planning will be strengthened. We used Bayesian logistic regression to develop predictive models for resident butterflies in the central Great Basin of western North America. Species inventory data and values for 14 environmental variables from 49 locations (segments of canyons) in the Toquima Range ( Nevada, U.S.A.) were used to build the models. Squares of the environmental variables were also used to accommodate possibly nonmonotonic responses. We obtained statistically significant models for 36 of 56 (64%) resident species of butterflies. The models explained 8–72% of the deviance in occurrence of those species. Each of the independent variables was significant in at least one model, and squared versions of five variables contributed to models. Elevation was included in more than half of the models. Models included one to four variables; only one variable was significant in about half the models. We conducted preliminary tests of two of our models by using an existing set of data on the occurrence of butterflies in the neighboring Toiyabe Range. We compared conventional logistic classification with posterior probability distributions derived from Bayesian modeling. For the latter, we restricted our predictions to locations with a high ( 70%) probability of predicted presence or absence. We will perform further tests after conducting inventories at new locations in the Toquima Range and nearby Shoshone Mountains, for which we have computed environmental variables by using remotely acquired topographic data, digital-terrain and microclimatic models, and GIS computation.     

A Theory of Plume Rise Compared with Field Observations

A theory for the rise of a plume in a horizontal wind is proposed in which it is assumed that, for some distance downwind of a high stack, the effects of atmospheric turbulence may be ignored in comparison with the effects of turbulence generated by the plume. The theory, an extension of the local similarity ideas used by Morton, Taylor, and Turner,¹ has two empirical parameters which measure the rate that surrounding fluid is entrained into the plume. Laboratory measurements of buoyant plume motion in laminar unstratified cross flow are used to estimate the empirical parameters. Using this determination of the parameters in the theory, the trajectories of atmospheric plumes may be predicted. To make such a prediction, the observed wind velocity and temperature as functions of altitude, and flow conditions at the stack orifice, are used in numerically integrating the equations. The resulting trajectories are compared with photographs, made by Leavitt, et al.,² of TVA, of plumes from 500 to 600 ft high stacks. Within 10 stack heights downwind of the stack, the root mean square discrepancy between the observed height of the trajectory above ground level and the theoretical value is 14%, which is about the uncertainty in the observed height. The maximum plume rise within the field of observation is within 15% of that predicted by the present theory.     

A Correlation of Field Observations of Plume Rise

Data from 137 sets of plume observations, comprising nearly 1 500 data points, are correlated with two simple formulae. These formulae, one for the buoyancy-dominated rise region and the other for the stratification-dominated levelled-off region of a plume, represent an approximate form of the entrainment theory of Hoult, et al. (1968)¹ for the case of uniform atmospheric stratification and zero wind shear. The observations, which are those of the Tennessee Valley Authority and of Bringfelt (1968),⁶ were made of plumes whose source strengths ranged from 0.4 to 111 Mw and which were emitted from stacks of heights between 21 and 183 m. The two formulae are found to correlate the data equally well over all values of the stack exit and meteorological parameters, provided only that the bulk mean velocity of the stack gases exceeds the mean wind speed by at least 20%. The ratio of observed to calculated plume rise is found to be distributed log normally about the mean value.

The median rise at large distances downstream was found to differ insignificantly from that given by the effective stack height formula recommended recently¹¹ for large buoyant plumes. Based upon the correlation, two formulae are recommended for computing median plume rise at all distances downstream of the stack. The formulae include an estimate of the expected uncertainty in the predicted rise.     

Seasonal,Episodic and Targeted Control of Sulfate Deposition

The large differences in seasonal rates of wet sulfate deposition observed at many receptors in eastern North America imply that reducing SO₂ emissions only in the summer half of the year (April-September) would bring about greater annual wet sulfate deposition reductions than reducing emissions by the same amount year-round. Targeting the emission reductions to those source areas which contribute the bulk of summer depositions in ecologically sensitive areas would increase further the gain factor, defined as the ratio of annual fractional deposition decrement to annual fractional emission decrement. In the northeastern U.S., between 10 and 15 rain episodes deposit about 60 percent of the annual wet sulfate; reducing emissions in the dry periods preceding these heavy deposition episodes could further increase the gain factor. However, it is difficult to predict these episodes, and they do not occur simultaneously over large regions of the country.     

The Importance of Non-struck Side Occupants in Side Collisions

Current occupant protection assessment for side impact is focused on struck side occupants sitting alone. In a representative sample of tow-away side collisions from the UK, only one-third of front seat occupants in side collisions were alone, on the struck side of the car. The other two-thirds were either a non-struck side occupant alone or a situation where the adjacent seat was also occupied. In terms of restraint protection for non-struck side occupants, belts appeared to be less effective in perpendicular compared to oblique side crashes. Front seat occupancy had bearing on injury outcome. With both front seats occupied, there was a reduction in AIS 27+ injury to belted non-struck side occupants due to a reduction in chest and lower limb injuries. Struck side occupants sustained increased injury rates to the extremities when accompanied by a belted non-struck side occupant but no notable increases in moderate to serious injury to the head, chest, abdomen or pelvis.     

Fabric filters versus electrostatic precipitators

Control of particulate emissions from pulverized coal fired steam generators is becoming a significant factor in the siting and public acceptability of large coal burning power plants. The particulate emission limit established by the EPA for new coal fired boilers is 0.03 lb/10⁶ Btu (13 ng/J) Possibly more restrictive than this is the state of New Mexico's particulate regulation which calls for no more than 0.05 lb/10⁶ Btu (22 ng/J) total, and no more than 0.02 lb/10⁶ Btu (9 ng/J) less than 2 microns in diameter. This paper will evaluate the effect of these stringent limitations on the technical feasibility and economics of dry particulate removal. Electrostatic precipitators have been the dominant particulate collection device in the electric utility industry for many years because of their low capital and operating cost. However, increasingly stringent emission standards have led to substantially higher costs for precipitators. These costs have increased sufficiently for fabric filtration to become a competitive alternative in achieving cost effective control. This paper will compare the economics and performance of fabric filtration with respect to conventional electrostatic precipitators. The paper will also address the preliminary evaluation procedures that should be followed in order to select the appropriate device for new or existing coal-fired boilers.     

Place,human agency and community resilience – considerations for public health management of smoke from prescribed burning

Prescribed burning is now a widely accepted bushfire hazard management strategy. While evidence points to reduced levels of public health harm compared to severe bushfire, smoke created by planned burns remains a community concern with need for evidence-based public health management. Findings are presented from an Australian study of community experiences of prescribed burns, associated smoke, and public health communications. We find that “place” influences how information is received and used for the management of the effects of planned burns; and that this is significant for human agency and community resilience. We provide recommendations for public health management.     

Motivations underpinning honeybee management practices: A Q methodology study with UK beekeepers

Beekeepers are central to pollinator health. For policymakers and beekeeping organisations to develop widely accepted strategies to sustain honeybee populations alongside wild pollinators, a structured understanding of beekeeper motivations is essential. UK beekeepers are increasing in number, with diverse management styles despite calls for coordinated practice to manage honeybee health. Our Q methodology study in Cornwall, UK, indicated five beekeeping perspectives; conventional hobbyists, natural beekeepers, black bee farmers, new-conventional hobbyists and pragmatic bee farmers. Motivations can be shared across perspectives but trade-offs (notably between economic, social responsibility and ideological motivations) result in differing practices, some of which counter ‘official’ UK advice and may have implications for pollinator health and competition. Honeybee conservation emerged as a key motivator behind non-conventional practices, but wild pollinator conservation was not prioritised by most beekeepers in practice. Q methodology has the potential to facilitate non-hierarchical collaboration and conceptualisation of sustainable beekeeping, moving towards co-production of knowledge to influence policy.Supplementary InformationThe online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1007/s13280-022-01736-w.