基于优势隐含周期分析的气象灾害预报

建立了优势因子和优势隐含周期的概念,并提出了多因子逐步回归周期分析的新方法。该方法既能增长预报期,又能充分利用物理因子的重要信息,同时在计算过程中还能挑选出起显著作用的优势因子和优势隐含周期,对预报气象要素的变化趋势效果较好,有一定的实用价值,是气象灾害预报的一条比较有效的途径。     

建筑材料及制品燃烧性能试验规范概述

建筑材料和制品燃烧性试验规范对保证建筑物内人的生命安全和财产安全是极为重要的。笔者对美国、加拿大、欧盟、日本以及中国的建筑材料燃烧性能试验规范进行分析、比较和综述。通过研究认为美国和加拿大对建筑材料燃烧性能的要求和试验方法基本相似,他们主要针对材料的燃烧性、火焰传播进行检测;欧盟于2001年颁布了新的燃烧性分级体系,该分级体系包括专门针对铺地材料部分和针对其他所有建筑构件材料和产品部门;日本采用锥形量热计法(ISO5660)将内装饰材料分为不燃、准不燃和阻燃材料3个等级;我国对建筑材料的试验方法包括不燃性试验方法、墙和天花板内装饰材料的三级分级体系和铺地材料两级分级体系。     

混凝土结构施工中人因差错的模拟

以施工现场人因差错真实准确的调查实测数据为依据,笔者采用人的可靠性分析方法建立了混凝土结构施工中人因差错发生及其对混凝土强度影响规律的数学模型,并编制了相应的模拟计算程序。将该模拟计算程序所得的考虑人因差错的混凝土强度模拟计算结果与实测的混凝土强度调查结果进行比较,二者具有很好的一致性,说明该数学模型和模拟计算程序是比较符合实际的,也是比较合理的。上述模拟计算结果为考虑人因差错的结构安全性分析以及人因差错的有效控制措施研究提供了参考依据。     

地铁轨道区火灾场景特性研究

在考虑人为恐怖袭击行为情况下，采用地铁轨道区模型实体火灾试验研究了地铁轨道区的火灾场景。得出了模拟地铁轨道区在火灾中的热释放速率，烟气浓度，温度，烟密度的变化规律。通电模拟短路以致引燃方式着火的最大热释放速率为9．66kW。浇洒煤油方式点火，轨道区最大热释放速率达到了204kW。随着电缆的点燃，燃烧进行的较为缓慢，烟气上升至隧道顶，沿着顶部向开口外扩散。C02的浓度变化较为缓慢。至10’41″达到c02释放峰值5027．7ppm；至10’41″时C0浓度达到最大354．0ppm。在轨道区问燃烧过程中，高温烟气始终沿着隧道顶部扩散，低于1．5m的空间是相对安全的；高于1．7m的空间是相对危险区域。火灾中烟气是首先弥漫整个房顶，然后再往下漫延的。     

两次金汞齐—冷原子吸收光谱法测定大气中的痕量气态总汞

本文作者在已有仪器的基础上进行简单改装，建立了两次金汞齐—冷原子吸收光谱法测定大气中的微量气态总汞的方法。研究表明，这种方法最低检出限为０．０５ｎｇ；１００μｌ饱和汞蒸气连续测定结果表明其相对标准偏差＜１．４１％。在０～２．０ｎｇ汞量范围内标准工作曲线线性关系良好。运用该法，对贵州省万山汞矿、丹寨汞矿、清镇汞污染农田、省农科院和中国科学院地球化学研究所等地大气气态总汞进行了测定。这种分析方法还可以运用到其它环境样品微量汞的测定。     

循环经济的范式研究

发展循环经济是落实科学发展观、实现经济增长方式根本性转变的重要途径。借鉴“范式”理论探讨和研究了循环经济范式替代末端治理范式的变革：①自然资源的价值得到重估。循环经济范式中将自然资源列为最重要的资源形式。认为它是人类社会最大的资源储备，提高资源生产率是解决环境问题的关键。②不同生态伦理得到整合、提升。循环经济的生态伦理基础强调“生态价值”的全面回归．主张在生产领域和消费领域向生态化转向，承认“生态位”的存在和尊重自然权利。它既包含了现代人类中心主义、生命中心主义和生态中心主义兰种生态伦理追求人类道德完善的合理成分。又补充了各自其不完善的方面o③生态阈值的研究得到深化。循环经济范式的基本前提之一是认为生态阈值是客观存在的。强调在生态阈值的范围内合理利用自然资源．从原来的仅对人力生产率的重视转向在根本上提高资源生产率。在尊重自然的基础上切实有力地保护生态系统的自组织能力。实现经济发展和环境保护的目的。④深层生态学的研究得到加强。循环经济范式是一种深层生态学。符合天人调谐的理念。它不仅强调技术进步．而且将制度、体制、管理、文化等因素通盘考虑，注重观念创新和生产、消费方式的变革．树立了人与自然和谐发展的价值观念。     

Spectral Characterization of Four Kinds of Biodegradable Plastics: Poly (Lactic Acid), Poly (Butylenes Adipate-Co-Terephthalate), Poly (Hydroxybutyrate-Co-Hydroxyvalerate) and Poly (Butylenes Succinate) with FTIR and Raman Spectroscopy

Fourier transform infrared microscope and confocal Raman spectroscope were employed in this study to investigate four kinds of biodegradable plastics: poly(lactic acid),poly(butylenes adipate-co-terephthalate), poly(butylenes succinate) and poly(hydroxybutyrate-co-hydroxyvalerate), which are used more and more popularly in everyday life but can not be identified easily with other instruments. Infrared and Raman spectra of the plastics were tentatively interpreted. The indicative peaks to characterize the four polymers were also summarized. The result in this study can help the forensic scientists discriminate the plastics accurately when they occurred as trace evidences in cases, it also offers the producer and environment scientists an effective, non-invasive and fast method to characterize and identify these four polymers.     

Assessing the impacts of current and future concentrations of surface ozone on crop yield with meta-analysis

Meta-analysis was conducted to quantitatively assess the effects of rising ozone concentrations ([O₃]) on yield and yield components of major food crops: potato, barley, wheat, rice, bean and soybean in 406 experimental observations. Yield loss of the crops under current and future [O₃] was expressed relative to the yield under base [O₃] (≤26 ppb). With potato, current [O₃] (31–50 ppb) reduced the yield by 5.3%, and it reduced the yield of barley, wheat and rice by 8.9%, 9.7% and 17.5%, respectively. In bean and soybean, the yield losses were 19.0% and 7.7%, respectively. Compared with yield loss at current [O₃], future [O₃] (51–75 ppb) drove a further 10% loss in yield of soybean, wheat and rice, and 20% loss in bean. Mass of individual grain, seed, or tuber was often the major cause of the yield loss at current and future [O₃], whereas other yield components also contributed to the yield loss in some cases. No significant difference was found between the responses in crops grown in pots and those in the ground for any yield parameters. The ameliorating effect of elevated [CO₂] was significant in the yields of wheat and potato, and the individual grain weight in wheat exposed to future [O₃]. These findings confirm the rising [O₃] as a threat to food security for the growing global population in this century.