Energy Choices and Public Policy

The subject of energy choices and public policy is one that has interested me at a professional level. The outlook for energy supply for Americans is uncertain. Will the OPEC crank the per barrel price of world oil up again this fall by three or four dollars? We don’t know. Will the cost of finding and developing new domestic oil reserves continue to rise, and will the domestic production continue to fall as it has been doing since 1970? We don’t know. Would regulating the price of old oil and natural gas entering into interstate commerce bring forth significantly increased supplies? We don’t know. The chances for reducing oil consumption—or at least checking the rate of increase—are equally uncertain. Will still higher prices, brought on by whatever means, cause people and industries to use less oil? We don’t know. Will demand shift away from oil and natural gas to cheaper, more plentiful energy sources? We don’t know. Will penalties, taxes, or exhortations get the motor vehicle industry to produce more gasoline efficient cars and trucks? We don’t know. We may not even get a chance to try. Will new, less energy intensive lifestyles take over? We don’t know.     

Sources of dioxins in the United Kingdom: the steel industry and other sources

Several countries have compiled national inventories of dioxin (polychlorinated dibenzo-p-dioxin [PCDD] and polychlorinated dibenzofuran [PCDF]) releases that detail annual mass emission estimates for regulated sources. High temperature processes, such as commercial waste incineration and iron ore sintering used in the production of iron and steel, have been identified as point sources of dioxins. Other important releases of dioxins are from various diffuse sources such as bonfire burning and domestic heating. The PCDD/F inventory for emissions to air in the UK has decreased significantly from 1995 to 1998 because of reduced emissions from waste incinerators which now generally operate at waste gas stack emissions of 1 ng I-TEQ/Nm3 or below. The iron ore sintering process is the only noteworthy source of PCDD/Fs at integrated iron and steelworks operated by Corus (formerly British Steel plc) in the UK. The mean waste gas stack PCDD/F concentration for this process is 1,2 ng I-TEQ/Nm3 based on 94 measurements and it has been estimated that this results in an annual mass release of approximately 38 g I-TEQ per annum. Diffuse sources now form a major contribution to the UK inventory as PCDD/Fs from regulated sources have decreased, for example, the annual celebration of Bonfire Night on 5th November in the UK causes an estimated release of 30 g I-TEQ, similar to that emitted by five sinter plants in the UK.     

Numerical simulation of the thermal destruction of some chlorinated C1 and C2 hydrocarbons

We have numerically modeled the breakdown of small quantities of several chlorinated hydrocarbons (CH3Cl, CH2Cl2, CHCl3, CCl4, C2H3Cl, and C2H5Cl) in a lean mixture of combustion products between 800 and 1480 K. This simulates the fate of poorly atomized waste in a liquid-injection incinerator. Kinetics calculations were performed using the CHEMKIN and SENKIN programs, with a reaction mechanism that was developed at Louisiana State University to model flat-flame burner experiments. A 99.99-percent destruction efficiency was attained in one second at temperatures ranging from 1280 to 960 K, with CCl4 requiring the highest temperature for destruction and C2H5Cl the lowest. For all compounds except C2H5Cl, there was a range of temperatures at which byproducts accounted for several percent of the elemental chlorine at the outlet. The more heavily chlorinated compounds formed more byproducts even though the amount of elemental chlorine was the same in all cases. The sensitivity of results to residence time, equivalence ratio, temperature profile, and the presence of additional chlorine, was examined for the case of CHCl3.     

Accumulation of 14C-trinitrotoluene and related nonextractable (bound) residues in Eisenia fetida

To determine if trinitrotoluene (TNT) forms nonextractable residues in earthworms and to measure the relative degree of accumulation as compared to TNT and its deaminated metabolites, Eisenia fetida was exposed to ¹⁴C-TNT using dermal contact to filter paper or exposure to soil. Nonextractable residues made up 32-68% of total body burden depending on exposure media and depuration time. Parent TNT accounted for less than 3% of radioactivity, while ADNTs accounted for 7-38%. Elimination half-lives were 61-120 h for TNT, ADNTs, and DANTs, which was significantly lower than the half-lives found for nonextractable residues, 201-240 h. However, over 80% of the nonextractable residue was solubilized using weak acid (pH 2). Based on our findings that TNT accumulation occurs primarily as nonextractable residues, which have a longer half-life, and that nonextractable residues can be solubilized, we propose that nonextractable residues could be used as a selective biomarker for assessing TNT contamination.     

Why Use One Model? An Approach for Encompassing Model Uncertainty and Improving Best Practice

There has been some discussion within the UK modelling community regarding the preferred choice of dispersion model for assessing the air quality impact of elevated point sources, each of which is reported to perform better than the other in certain circumstances. Coupled to this is the growing acceptance within the modelling community to include some recognition of model uncertainty in its reporting. As computer processing speeds increase further, this paper considers the possibility of using more than one model and highlights some of the advantages in doing so.     

Using the Sediment Quality Triad to characterize baseline conditions in the Anacostia River, Washington, DC, USA

The Sediment Quality Triad (SQT) consists of complementary measures of sediment chemistry, benthic community structure, and sediment toxicity. We applied the SQT at 20 stations in the tidal portion of the Anacostia River from Bladensburg, MD to Washington, DC to establish a baseline of conditions to evaluate the effects of management actions. Sediment toxicity was assessed using 10-day survival and growth tests with the freshwater amphipod, Hyalella azteca and the midge, Chironomus dilutus. Triplicate grabs were taken at each station for benthic community analysis and the Benthic Index of Biotic Integrity (B-IBI) was used to interpret the data. Only one station, #92, exhibited toxicity related to sediment contamination. Sediments from this station significantly inhibited growth of both test species, had the highest concentrations of contaminants, and had a degraded benthic community, indicated by a B-IBI of less than 3. Additional sediment from this station was tested and sediment toxicity identification evaluation (TIE) procedures tentatively characterized organic compounds as the cause of toxicity. Overall, forty percent of the stations were classified as degraded by the B-IBI. However, qualitative and quantitative comparisons with sediment quality benchmarks indicated no clear relationship between benthic community health and contaminant concentrations. This study provides a baseline for assessing the effectiveness of management actions in the Anacostia River.     

Flow Field and Pollution Dispersion in a Central London Street

Urban pollution due to roadways is perceived as a major obstacle to implementing low-energy ventilation design strategies in urban non-domestic buildings. As part of a project to evaluate the use of a computational fluid flow model as an environmental design tool for urban buildings, this paper seeks to address the impact of pollution from roadways on buildings in areas of restricted topography and assess dominant influencing factors and other requirements for testing the flow model predictions. Vertical profiles of carbon monoxide (CO) and temperature at the facade of a building in a Central London street, in addition to above-roof wind speed and direction, were measured over a period of three months. The street has a height-to-width (h/W) ratio of 0.6 and is of asymmetric horizontal alignment. The air flows in the area surrounding the building were modelled using a computational fluid flow model for two orthogonal wind directions. CO concentrations were calculated from the steady-state flow field in order to place point measurements in the context of the flow field, identify persistent features in the measured data attributable to the flow structure and, by comparison with measurements, identify further testing requirements.Some qualitative and quantitative agreement between measured and modelled data was obtained. Measured CO levels at the building facade and vertical variations of CO were small, as predicted by the model. A wake-interference type flow was predicted by the model for wind speeds >2ms-1 with formation of a vortex cell occurring for roof-level wind speeds >5ms-1 for the cross-wind direction, which was reflected in the measured CO levels and facade gradients. A direction-dependent inverse relationship was noted, both in the model and measurements, between above-roof wind speed and facade CO levels although statistical correlations in the time series were poor. CO concentrations at the facade were found to increase with height frequently, as well as decrease, especially for parallel winds. It is expected that mechanical turbulence due to vehicles was largely responsible. In comparison, thermal stratification appeared to play only a minor role in controlling vertical mixing in the street, under low wind speed conditions.     

Treatment of Urban Areas within a Regional Transport Model of Sulphur and Nitrogen Oxides

The air pollution transport model UGEM (The University of Greenwich Evaluation Model) has been developed to evaluate medium-range transport and deposition of sulphur and oxidised nitrogen from all types of sources of emissions in the UK and to estimate their average annual deposition and concentrations across the UK. The model has been tested for its predictions against the available measurements.This study was focused on a possibility of applying the UGEM model to the assessment of air quality on a local scale. One parameter in the model is crucial, the local deposition fraction. The effect of this parameter on quality of the model predictions has been studied for different scales of UGEM output, such as the whole territory of the UK, a rural region and an urban area.The results of the study show that the magnitude of the local deposition fraction should be different for each grid square to reach the best agreement of predictions of concentrations with measurements. Applying a local value of the parameter to each grid square will improve the model predictions of the concentrations in urban areas in particular and will not affect the quality of model predictions of the wet deposition.     

Evaluation of the effect of data pre-treatment procedures on classical pattern recognition and principal components analysis: a case study for the geographical classification of tea

A simple transformation that uses the half-range and central value has been used as a data pre-treatment procedure for principal component analysis (PCA) and pattern recognition techniques. The results obtained have been compared with the results from classical normalisation of data (mean normalisation, maximum normalisation and range normalisation), autoscaling and the minimum-maximum transformation. Three data sets were used in the study. The first was formed by determining 17 elements in 53 tea samples (901 pieces of data). The second and third data sets arose from two long-term drift studies performed to examine instrumental stability at standard and robust conditions. The instruments used were an inductively coupled plasma atomic emission spectrometer and an inductively coupled plasma mass spectrometer. Each drift diagnosis experiment consisted of replicate determinations of a test solution containing 15 analytes at 10 mg l-1 over 8 h without recalibration. Twenty-nine emission lines were determined 99 times, thus, each data set was formed by 2881 pieces of data. Data pre-treatment was applied to the three data sets prior to the use of principal component analysis, cluster analysis, linear discrimination analysis and soft independent modelling of class analogy. The study revealed that the half-range and central value transformation resulted in a better classification of the tea samples than that achieved using the classical normalisation. The loadings in the PCA for the long-term stability study, under both standard and robust conditions, were found to be similar to the drift trends only when the minimum-maximum transformation and the mean or maximum normalizations were used as data pre-treatments.