Atmospheric Factors Influencing Daily Sulfate Concentrations in Chicago Air

Abstract

Confidence interval construction for central tendency is a problem of practical consequence for those who must analyze air contaminant data. Determination of compliance with relevant ambient air quality criteria and assessment of associated health risks depend upon quantifying the uncertainty of estimated mean pollutant concentrations. The bootstrap is a resampling technique that has been steadily gaining popularity and acceptance during the past several years. A potentially powerful application of the bootstrap is the construction of confidence intervals for any parameter of any underlying distribution. Properties of bootstrap confidence intervals were determined for samples generated from lognormal, gamma, and Weibull distributions. Bootstrap t intervals, while having smaller coverage errors than Student's t or other bootstrap methods, under-cover for small samples from skewed distributions. Therefore, we caution against using the bootstrap to construct confidence intervals for the mean without first considering the effects of sample size and skew. When sample sizes are small, one might consider using the median as an estimate of central tendency. Confidence intervals for the median are easy to construct and do not under-cover. Data collected by the Northeast States for Coordinated Air Use Management (NESCAUM) are used to illustrate application of the methods discussed.     

Summary of the Federal Emissions Trading Policy Statement

This paper is directed to those concerned with using emissions trading to achieve greater flexibility and reduce the costs of complying with air pollution emission standards.     

Factors Influencing the Emissions of Nitrated-Polynuclear Aromatic Hydrocarbons(Nitro-PAH) from Diesel Engines

The potential problem of 1-nitropyrene (1-NP) formation during filter sampling of diesel emissions from dilution tubes is assessed. Rates of formation are calculated using data generated from several independent filter exposure studies. A portion of the 1-NP (12% average) found in participates collected from light-duty (LDD) and heavy-duty diesels (HOD) was found to be due to formation on the filter under average sampling conditions of 10-15/1 dilution at 44°C with 3 ppm NO₂ for 23 min. On the average, the concentration of 1-NP in participates emitted from HDD is 16 times less than that found in LDD run under similiar transient conditions. The average emission rate of 1-NP generated from the LDD and HDD was 4.7 μg/km and 1.5 μg/km, respectively for the vehicles operating under Federal Test Procedure (FTP)-transient conditions. Under operating conditions which increase exhaust temperature (increased speed and load), the concentration of nitro-PAH is significantly reduced with a concurrent increase in the concentration of partially oxidized nitro-PAH and dinitro-PAH. The concentration of 1-NP in the particulates measured from HDD in these dilution tube studies (0.33-0.95 ppm, depending upon engine load) is comparable to that measured in highway tunnel experiments (0.54 ppm average).     

Evaluation of Selected Gaseous Halocarbons for Use in source Test Performance Audits

A repository of 38 gaseous organic compounds in compressed gas cylinders has been established by EPA. This repository was established to provide standards for source test performance audits, that is, quantitative quality assurance tests. Among these compounds are ten halogenated organic species, which are the focus of this paper.

Stability studies of all ten compounds have been performed to determine the feasibility of using them as performance audit standards. Results indicate that all of the halocarbons tested are adequately stable to be used as reliable audit standards.

Subsequent to completion of stability studies, four of the ten halocarbons were used in source test performance audits. Results are available at this time for two of the four compounds; the results show agreement within 10% of the concentrations previously established by Research Triangle Institute.     

Ten-Year Ozone Trends in California and Texas

Ozone trends have been developed for 50 California sites located in six basins and for 15 Texas sites in two regions. All data were obtained directly from state or local monitoring agencies and have been standardized to the current ultraviolet calibration basis. Rigorous standards of data representativeness and statistical validity have been adhered to throughout. The effect of monitoring variance upon apparent trends is reviewed as well as implications of this work for the ozone control strategy. Trends for 1973-82 for three key robust ozone statistics were developed in detail and analyzed. These are: annual average, annual hours >120 ppb and average daily maximum hour (May through October). Summaries for three other statistics including annual maximum hour are also included as well as composite trends for California basins and Texas regions. The statistical significance of all trends is discussed.     

An Assessment of the Economic Effects of Ozone on U.S. Agriculture

Past attempts to measure the economic consequences of ozone on agriculture have been based on limited plant science information. This paper reports on an economic assessment of ozone on U.S. agriculture using recent crop response data from the National Crop Loss Assessment Network (NCLAN). The results are derived from a U.S. agricultural sector model that includes major crop and livestock production as well as domestic consumption, livestock feeding and export uses. The economic effects of four hypothetical ambient ozone levels are investigated. The analysis Indicates that the benefits to society of moderate (25%) ozone reductions are approximately $1.7 billion. A 25% Increase in ozone pollution results in costs (negative benefits) of $2.1 billion. These estimates do not reflect compliance costs of achieving the ozone changes and hence are not net benefits.     

Severity of SO2-lnduced Leaf Necrosis on Caribbean,Scots, and Virginia Pine Seedlings

Caribbean pine, an economically important tree of tropical lowlands, is at risk of SO₂ exposure in certain locales. Twenty-week old seedlings of Caribbean, Scots, and Virginia pine were exposed to 0.5, 1.0, and 2.0 ppm SO₂ (1300, 2600, and 5200 μm^?3, respectively) for 1, 2, 4, and 8 h in modified controlled-environment chambers. Severity of SO₂-induced leaf necrosis for each species was related to SO₂ concentration and exposure duration using a regression model. The three dose-response relationships differed in detail, but Caribbean pine seedlings were generally as sensitive to SO₂ as seedlings of the two highly sensitive temperate species. In addition, 173 4-wk-old Caribbean pine seedlings were exposed to 0.5 ppm SO₂ for 4 h. Over one-half of these seedlings exhibited some necrosis and over one-sixth had more than 5 percent of leaf surface necrotic. It is concluded that Caribbean pine seedlings are highly sensitive to acute doses of SO₂.     

Use of Energy Scenarios in Addressing the CO2 Question

A reference scenario for CO₂ emissions was developed using a model of world energy supply and demand. In the reference scenario, world GNP and world energy demand increase at average rates of 2.1 percent per year and 1.5 percent per year, respectively during the period 1975-2100. The corresponding annual CO₂ emissions rise to a maximum of 16 gigatons of carbon around 2050 and then decline as a result of a transition to nonfossil fuel energy systems. A modified scenario for high CO₂ emissions was obtained by assuming an abundant supply of low cost coal, thus eliminating the transition. A low case was developed in which the low cost of alternative energy (i.e., solar, nuclear) induces an earlier shift away from fossil fuels.

Annual emissions of the three scenarios were used as input to a global carbon cycle model and the CO₂ buildup in the atmosphere during the period 1980-2100 was determined by the model. All three scenarios showed continuous rises in atmospheric CO₂ concentration. The reference scenario reached 775 ppm by 2100. The high CO₂ case resulted in concentrations of over 1040 ppm, and for the low case the 2100 concentration was just under 700 ppm. If the climate theory is correct, even 700 ppm is sufficient to give significant climate warming, but by experiencing the change gradually over a century, adaptation may not be painful. An early transition to nonfossil fuel supplies makes the problem less severe but does not eliminate it.     

Assessment of environmental quality of water bodies next to agricultural areas of Buenos Aires province (Argentina) by means of ecotoxicological studies with Rhinella arenarum

Over the last decade, oysters in the Bay of Veys (Northwest France) have sporadically experienced significant summer mortality events which appear to be due to a combination of extrinsic and intrinsic factors. In the present work, the involvement of pesticides (as additional stressors) was investigated using both artificial exposure and field studies (at two sites). Six herbicides were detected in seawater following tests for a total of 15 herbicides. The most estuarine site was the most contaminated, showing relatively high values compared with those recorded in a neighboring river. No pesticides were detected in the flesh of oysters in the field but exposure experiments led to an accumulation of two substituted ureas (diuron and isoproturon, from 0.5 μ g/L and 1 μ gL^{? 1} respectively). Some physiological effects were observed in terms of reproduction (partial spawning) and histopathology (atrophy of the digestive tubule epithelium) but results related to other tissue alterations and to neutral red retention (NRR) assays were not conclusive and require further investigation.