Improving watershed decisions using run-off and yield models at different simulation scales

Water managers face the daunting task of balancing limited water resources with over-subscribed water users among competing demands. They face the additional challenge of taking water planning decisions in an uncertain environment with limited and sometimes inaccurate observed and simulated hydrological data. Within South African watersheds, spatial parameterization data for hydrological models are now available at two different basin management resolutions (termed quaternary and quinary). Currently, water management decisions in the Crocodile River watershed are often made at a more coarse resolution, which may exclude crucial insights into the data. This research has the following aims (1) to explore whether model performance is improved by parameterization using a more detailed quinary-scale watershed data and (2) to explore whether quinary-scale models reduce uncertainty in allocation or restriction decisions to provide better informed water resources management and decision outcomes. This study used the Agricultural Catchments Research Unit (ACRU) agro-hydrological watershed model, to evaluate the effects of spatial discretization at the quaternary and quinary scales on watershed hydrological response and runoff within the Crocodile River basin. Model performance was evaluated using statistical comparisons of results using traditional goodness-of-fit measures such as the coefficient of efficiency (C _eff), root mean square of the error and the coefficient of determination (R ²) to compare simulated monthly flows and observed flows in six subcatchments. Traditional interpretation of these goodness-of-fit measures may be inadequate as they can be subjectively interpreted and easily influenced by the number of data points, outliers and model bias. This research utilizes a recently released model evaluation program (FITEVAL) which presents probability distributions of R ²and C _eff derived by bootstrapping, graphical representation of observed and simulated stream flows, incorporates statistical significance to detect the sufficiency of the R ²and C _eff and determines the presence of outliers and bias. While analyses indicate that the ACRU model performs marginally better when parameterized and calibrated at the quinary scale, the measurements at both scales show significant variability in predictions for both high and low flows that are endemic to southern African hydrology. The improved evaluation methods also allow for the analysis of data collection errors at monitoring sites and help determine the effect of data quality on adaptive water planning management decisions. Given that many water resource challenges are complex adaptive systems, these expanded performance analysis tools help provide deeper insights into matching watershed decision metrics and model-derived predictions.     

Understanding urban vulnerability,adaptation and resilience in the context of climate change

This paper introduces a special issue of Local Environment that has arisen through collaboration between academic researchers and the Urban Planning and Design Branch of UN-Habitat, focused on how we can understand and respond to the challenges of urban vulnerability, adaptation and resilience in the context of climate change. The paper establishes the existing state of the art in the field, and considers critical challenges that are emerging in the research-based literature. In this context, it introduces UN-Habitat's Cities and Climate Change Initiative and reflects on the lessons learnt and challenges ahead, drawing on insights from across the papers in the special issue. In conclusion, it identifies the role of international/transnational co-operation, the relation between adaptation and mitigation, issues of multi-level governance and the ways in which change in urban socio-technical systems might be achieved as critical issues across the science/policy interface where increased dialogue and the co-production of knowledge needs to focus in order to advance this agenda.     

Differences in Global Scientific Production Between New mRNA and Conventional Vaccines Against COVID-19

Environmental Science and Pollution Research - The search for effective vaccines to stop the COVID-19 pandemic has led to an unprecedented amount of global scientific production and activity. This...     

Fractionation of heavy metals and distribution of organic carbon in two contaminated soils amended with humic acids

The effects of humic acids (HAs) extracted from two different organic materials on the distribution of heavy metals and on organic-C mineralisation in two contaminated soils were studied in incubation experiments. Humic acids isolated from a mature compost (HAC) and a commercial Spaghnum peat (HAP) were added to an acid soil (pH 3.4; 966 mg kg(-1) Zn and 9,229 mg kg(-1) Pb as main contaminants) and to a calcareous soil (pH 7.7; 2,602 mg kg(-1) Zn and 1,572 mg kg(-1) Pb as main contaminants) at a rate of 1.1g organic-C added per 100g soil. The mineralisation of organic-C was determined by the CO(2) released during the experiment. After 2, 8 and 28 weeks of incubation the heavy metals of the soils were fractionated by a sequential extraction procedure. After 28 weeks of incubation, the mineralisation of the organic-C added was rather low in the soils studied (<8% of TOC in the acid soil; <10% of TOC in the calcareous soil). Both humic acids caused significant Zn and Pb immobilisation (increased proportion of the residual fraction, extractable only with aqua regia) in the acid soil, while Cu and Fe were slightly mobilised (increased concentrations extractable with 0.1M CaCl(2) and/or 0.5M NaOH). In the calcareous soil there were lesser effects, and at the end of the experiment only the fraction mainly related to carbonates (EDTA-extractable) was significantly increased for Zn and decreased for Fe in the humic acids treated samples. However, HA-metal interactions provoked the flocculation of these substances, as suggested by the association of the humic acids with the sand fraction of the soil. These results indicate that humic acid-rich materials can be useful amendments for soil remediation involving stabilisation, although a concomitant slight mobilisation of Zn, Pb and Cu can be provoked in acid soils.     

Human Impacts on Land Cover and Water Balances in a Coastal Mediterranean County

We analyzed the effects of changes in land cover on the water balance in Spain’s Marina Baixa County, on the Mediterranean coast. To reveal how different land management strategies have affected the area’s environment, four municipalities within the same catchment were studied: Benidorm, Callosa d’en Sarrià, Beniardà, and Guadalest. In the municipalities of Callosa and Benidorm, the proportion of the area covered by woodland declined by 4.2% and 30.2%, respectively, and woodland was replaced by agriculture and urban development. The abandonment of farmland produced a 17% increase in the proportion of the area covered by vegetation in Guadalest and Beniardá, where frequent forest fires have exacerbated a decrease in the area of pine woodland. Tourism development in Benidorm has been accompanied by an increase in the transportation infrastructure and by an expansion of areas with an impermeable surface, with the lowest level of infiltration into the aquifer system. These changes have generated a net water deficit in Callosa and Benidorm of more than 6 Mm³/year, creating a high demand for water imported from other municipalities (Guadalest and Beniardá) or from outside of the county to maintain the sustainability of the current water management strategies. The Marina Baixa case study is representative of many of the world’s coastal areas that are undergoing rapid urban development based on an inappropriate understanding of human progress based mainly on economic development and thus provides insights into water management in other areas.     

Summer cover crops reduce atrazine leaching to shallow groundwater in southern Florida

At Florida's southeastern tip, sweet corn (Zea Mays) is grown commercially during winter months. Most fields are treated with atrazine (6-chloro-N-ethyl-N'-[1-methylethyl]-1,3,5-triazine-2,4-diamine). Hydrogeologic conditions indicate a potential for shallow groundwater contamination. This was investigated by measuring the parent compound and three degradates--DEA (6-chloro-N-[1-methylethyl]-1,3,5-triazine-2,4-diamine), DIA (6-chloro-N-ethyl)-1,3,5-triazine-2,4-diamine, and HA (6-hydroxy-N-[1-methylethyl]-1,3,5-triazine-2,4-diamine)--in water samples collected beneath sweet corn plots treated annually with the herbicide. During the study, a potential mitigation measure (i.e., the use of a cover crop, Sunn Hemp [Crotalaria juncea L.], during summer fallow periods followed by chopping and turning the crop into soil before planting the next crop) was evaluated. Over 3.5 yr and production of four corn crops, groundwater monitoring indicated leaching of atrazine, DIA, and DEA, with DEA accounting for more than half of all residues in most samples. Predominance of DEA, which increased after the second atrazine application, was interpreted as an indication of rapid and extensive atrazine degradation in soil and indicated that an adapted community of atrazine degrading organisms had developed. A companion laboratory study found a sixfold increase in atrazine degradation rate in soil after three applications. Groundwater data also revealed that atrazine and degradates concentrations were significantly lower in samples collected beneath cover crop plots when compared with concentrations below fallow plots. Together, these findings demonstrated a relatively small although potentially significant risk for leaching of atrazine and its dealkylated degradates to groundwater and that the use of a cover crop like Sunn Hemp during summer months may be an effective mitigation measure.     

How forest marsupials are affected by habitat degradation and fragmentation? A meta-analysis

Habitat fragmentation and degradation are important biodiversity change drivers worldwide. Their effects have been described for many animal groups, but little is known about marsupials. We conducted a meta-analysis aiming to evaluate the actual effects of habitat fragmentation and degradation on forest marsupials. From a literature survey, we obtained 85 case studies reporting disturbance comparisons. We found a negative overall effect, as well as a negative effect for habitat fragmentation, but not for habitat degradation. Marsupials from Oceania were negatively affected by habitat disturbance, whereas there was no effect for those from South America. Arboreal marsupials were negatively affected, whereas terrestrial marsupials did not. Species from the families Dasyuridae (Antechinus spp.) and Microbiotheriidae (Dromiciops gliroides) showed to be sensitive to habitat disturbance.     

Soil carbon storage in silvopasture and related land-use systems in the brazilian cerrado

Silvopastoral management of fast-growing tree plantations is becoming popular in the Brazilian Cerrado (savanna). To understand the influence of such systems on soil carbon (C) storage, we studied C content in three aggregate size classes in six land-use systems (LUS) on Oxisols in Minas Gerais, Brazil. The systems were a native forest, a treeless pasture, 24- and 4-yr-old eucalyptus ( sp.) plantations, and 15- and 4-yr-old silvopastures of fodder grass plus animals under eucalyptus. From each system, replicated soil samples were collected from four depths (0-10, 10-20, 20-50, and 50-100 cm), fractionated into 2000- to 250-, 250- to 53-, and <53-μm size classes representing macroaggregates, microaggregates, and silt + clay, respectively, and their C contents determined. Macroaggregate was the predominant size fraction under all LUS, especially in the surface soil layers of tree-based systems. In general, C concentrations (g kg soil) in the different aggregate size fractions did not vary within the same depth. The soil organic carbon (SOC) stock (Mg C ha) to 1-m depth was highest under pasture compared with other LUS owing to its higher soil bulk density. The soils under all LUS had higher C stock compared with other reported values for managed tropical ecosystems: down to 1 m, total SOC stock values ranged from 461 Mg ha under pasture to 393 Mg ha under old eucalyptus. Considering the possibility for formation and retention of microaggregates within macroggregates in low management-intensive systems such as silvopasture, the macroaggregate dynamics in the soil seem to be a good indicator of its C storage potential.