Physical basis of coastal adaptation on tropical small islands

Small tropical islands are widely recognized as having high exposure and vulnerability to climate change and other natural hazards. Ocean warming and acidification, changing storm patterns and intensity, and accelerated sea-level rise pose challenges that compound the intrinsic vulnerability of small, remote, island communities. Sustainable development requires robust guidance on the risks associated with natural hazards and climate change, including the potential for island coasts and reefs to keep pace with rising sea levels. Here we review these issues with special attention to their implications for climate-change vulnerability, adaptation, and disaster risk reduction in various island settings. We present new projections for 2010–2100 local sea-level rise (SLR) at 18 island sites, incorporating crustal motion and gravitational fingerprinting, for a range of Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change global projections and a semi-empirical model. Projected 90-year SLR for the upper limit A1FI scenario with enhanced glacier drawdown ranges from 0.56 to 1.01 m for islands with a measured range of vertical motion from ?0.29 to +0.10 m. We classify tropical small islands into four broad groups comprising continental fragments, volcanic islands, near-atolls and atolls, and high carbonate islands including raised atolls. Because exposure to coastal forcing and hazards varies with island form, this provides a framework for consideration of vulnerability and adaptation strategies. Nevertheless, appropriate measures to adjust for climate change and to mitigate disaster risk depend on a place-based understanding of island landscapes and of processes operating in the coastal biophysical system of individual islands.     

The Gathering Storm: managing adaptation to environmental change in coastal communities and small islands

Small island communities are inherently coastal communities, sharing many of the attributes and challenges faced by cities, towns and villages situated on the shores of larger islands and continents. In the context of rapidly changing climates, all coastal communities are challenged by their exposure to changing sea levels, to increasingly frequent and severe storms, and to the cumulative effects of higher storm surges. Across the globe, small island developing states, and small islands in larger states, are part of a distinctive set of stakeholders threatened, not only by climate change but also by shifting social, economic, and cultural conditions. C-Change is a collaborative International Community–University Research Alliance (ICURA) project whose goal is to assist participating coastal communities in Canada and the Caribbean region to share experiences and tools that aid adaptation to changes in their physical environment, including sea-level rise and the increasing frequency of extreme weather events associated with climate change. C-Change researchers have been working with eight partner communities to identify threats, vulnerabilities, and risks, to improve understanding of the ramifications of climate change to local conditions and local assets, and to increase capacity for planning for adaptation to their changing world. This paper reports on the knowledge gained and shared and the challenges to date in this ongoing collaboration between science and society.     

Family structure and variation in reproductive success in blackbirds

In avian families, some offspring are rendered unequal by parental fiat. By imposing phenotypic handicaps (e.g., via asynchronous hatching) upon certain of their offspring and not others, parents structure the sibship into castes of advantaged “core” offspring and disadvantaged “marginal” offspring that results in an asymmetric sibling rivalry. Here, I show how this family structure scales up to population level reproductive consequences. In a 17-year study of red-winged blackbirds (Agelaius phoeniceus), I show that year-to-year variation in the number of surviving offspring is driven primarily by variation in the number of marginal offspring at hatching and their posthatching survival. Clutch size, core brood at hatching, and fledging varied little from year to year and had little direct effect on year-to-year variation in total brood size at fledging; conversely, variation in the size of the marginal brood at hatching and at fledging was much greater. Marginal but not core brood size at hatching rose with mean clutch size; in years where parents laid larger average clutches they did so by adding marginal progeny. The mean posthatching survival of marginal offspring was always lower than that of core offspring in a given year, and there was no overlap in the distributions. The highest mean survival of marginal offspring across years fell below the lowest mean survival of core offspring; broods were deeply structured. There was an overall female bias among fledglings, and the sex ratio varied across years, with a higher proportion of the smaller female nestlings in years of below average reproductive success. Such variation was especially pronounced in the marginal brood where a higher incidence of brood reduction allowed greater potential for sex-biased nestling mortality. In years of the highest average reproductive success, the sex ratio in the marginal brood approached equality, whereas in years of the lowest average reproductive success, more than two thirds of 8-day-old nestlings were female. Structuring the brood into core and marginal elements allowed parents to modulate both offspring number and sex under ecological uncertainty with direct consequences for population-level reproductive success. They produced fewer and less expensive fledglings in below average years and more and more expensive fledglings in above average years.