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71.
The influence of land use and climate change on forest biomass and composition in Massachusetts, USA 总被引:7,自引:0,他引:7
Land use and climate change have complex and interacting effects on naturally dynamic forest landscapes. To anticipate and adapt to these changes, it is necessary to understand their individual and aggregate impacts on forest growth and composition. We conducted a simulation experiment to evaluate regional forest change in Massachusetts, USA over the next 50 years (2010-2060). Our objective was to estimate, assuming a linear continuation of recent trends, the relative and interactive influence of continued growth and succession, climate change, forest conversion to developed uses, and timber harvest on live aboveground biomass (AGB) and tree species composition. We examined 20 years of land use records in relation to social and biophysical explanatory variables and used regression trees to create "probability-of-conversion" and "probability-of-harvest" zones. We incorporated this information into a spatially interactive forest landscape simulator to examine forest dynamics as they were affected by land use and climate change. We conducted simulations in a full-factorial design and found that continued forest growth and succession had the largest effect on AGB, increasing stores from 181.83 Tg to 309.56 Tg over 50 years. The increase varied from 49% to 112% depending on the ecoregion within the state. Compared to simulations with no climate or land use, forest conversion reduced gains in AGB by 23.18 Tg (or 18%) over 50 years. Timber harvests reduced gains in AGB by 5.23 Tg (4%). Climate change (temperature and precipitation) increased gains in AGB by 17.3 Tg (13.5%). Pinus strobus and Acer rubrum were ranked first and second, respectively, in terms of total AGB throughout all simulations. Climate change reinforced the dominance of those two species. Timber harvest reduced Quercus rubra from 10.8% to 9.4% of total AGB, but otherwise had little effect on composition. Forest conversion was generally indiscriminate in terms of species removal. Under the naive assumption that future land use patterns will resemble the recent past, we conclude that continued forest growth and recovery will be the dominant mechanism driving forest dynamics over the next 50 years, and that while climate change may enhance growth rates, this will be more than offset by land use, primarily forest conversion to developed uses. 相似文献
72.
Between economics and ecology: some historical and philosophical considerations for modelers of natural capital 总被引:1,自引:0,他引:1
Foster J 《Environmental monitoring and assessment》2003,86(1-2):63-74
Natural capital models attempt to remediate the relationship between economics and ecology either by conjoining models and theories from each discipline or by finding a type of phenomena that can be meaningfully measured by both fields. The developmentof a widely accepted model which integrates economics and ecologyhas eluded researchers since the early 1970s. This paper offers an historical and philosophical perspective on some of the conceptual problems or obstacles that hinder the development ofnatural capital models. In particular, the disciplinary assumptions of economic science and ecological science are examined and it is argued that these assumptions are antithetical. Hence, the development of an effective and acceptednatural capital model will require that economics and ecology reconsider their self-conceptions as sciences. For the purposesof theoretical research and practical policy, the paper cautionsagainst confusing the issue of whether or not economic models accord with ecological models with the issue of whether or not economic activities accord with ecological realities. 相似文献
73.
74.
M. Albrecht K. M. Kneeland E. Lindroth J. E. Foster 《Journal of Coastal Conservation》2013,17(3):483-491
Rhizophora mangle L. is a widespread mangrove species in the Western Hemisphere. Mangrove habitat loss and their importance to coastal and reef ecosystems make greater understanding of their genetic structure useful for conservation and management. An amplified fragment polymorphism (AFLP) analysis was performed on samples from Florida and the Caribbean to discover the genetic structure present. R. mangle had variable genetic diversity not related to latitude; P ranged 7 %–92 %. Some other factor, perhaps human impact, has caused low genetic diversity in some populations. Across Florida R. mangle populations varied in genetic diversity with less diversity (Gst?=?0.195) and greater gene flow on the Atlantic coast (Nm =2.07) than on the Gulf coast (Gst?=?0.717, Nm?=?0.197). Gene flow between Caribbean islands was low (Nm?=?0.386) compared to continental populations (Nm?=?1.40), indicating that long distance dispersal is not common between islands. Analysis of molecular variance (AMOVA) analysis showed significant deviations from Hardy-Weinberg expectations at the level of region among subpopulations and overall genetic difference among subpopulations for R. mangle. One implication for management is that small continental populations and island populations may be genetically isolated and distinct from each other. 相似文献
75.
76.
77.
Robert B. Fleming Kennith E. Foster 《Journal of the American Water Resources Association》1979,15(1):198-205
ABSTRACT: Western state water resources are drawing increasing attention because of prolonged drought, pound-water overdraft and an ever-increasing awareness of insufficient Colorado River water to supply a growing population and meet industrial demand. Arizona is no exception, and the alarming decline in ground-water levels has prompted the Arizona State Legislature to adopt legislation establishing the Ground-Water Management Study Commission to recommend legislative action by 1979. This paper summarizes Arizona's ground water legislative history and discusses possible alternatives for change. The authors address specific issues facing the State and offer a set of possible Commission recommendations. 相似文献
78.
This paper describes a heuristic model which helps to relate a developing nation's environmental risk to the level of sophistication appropriate in adjusting management strategy to dealing with environmental hazards. The model takes into account three factors: the degree of risk, the stage of economic growth, and the sophistication of adjustment. The interrelationship of these factors is examined, and the role of international cooperation in establishing strategies is outlined. 相似文献
79.
Year-to-year variation in SO4
2-,NO3
-, Ca2+, K+, and Mg2+concentrations in forest floor and mineral soil percolatefrom a forested, podzolic soil at the Turkey Lakes Watershedon the Precambrian Shield was assessed for monotonic trendsbetween 1986 and 1995. Our objective was to examine howrapidly ion concentrations in soil percolate equilibratedafter stabilization of SO4
2- concentrations inprecipitation. Significant negative trends were detected inmonthly Ca2+, and Mg2+ concentrations in forestfloor and SO4
2-, Ca2+, and Mg2+ inmineral soil percolate during the 10-year-period. Thedecline in Ca2+ and Mg2+ was greater than annualdecreases in SO4
2- and NO3
- in forestfloor percolate and proportional to the reduction inSO4
2- in mineral soil percolate. Response ofmineral soil percolate to a 15 molc L-1SO4
2- decrease in wet-only precipitation between1985 and 1986 was a gradual decline in SO4
2-concentration through 1995. The five-year meanSO4
2- concentration in bulk precipitation, forestfloor percolate, and mineral soil percolate decreased 8, 9and 18 molc L-1 from 1986–90 to 1991–95.Microbial (mineralization of organic S) and sorption(release from and/or retention in the pool of insolubleSO4
2-) processes in the soil were logicalexplanations for the observed changes in SO4
2- inmineral soil percolate. 相似文献
80.
K. James DeCook Kennith E. Foster 《Journal of the American Water Resources Association》1984,20(6):883-888
Rainfall and runoff in the Tucson, Arizona, urban area can be used to augment residential and municipal water supplies. Residential rainfall-harvesting systems include a catchment surface, collection and concentration components, separation and treatment units, storage capacity and distribution capability. A system to control runoff can divert water from urban washes for use in parks or other landscaped areas or can be used to enhance recharge to groundwater reservoirs. A reduction in flood hazards or peaks is a concurrent benefit of controlling and diverting runoff. 相似文献