Simulating Unstressed Crop Development and Growth Using the Unified Plant Growth Model (UPGM)

Since initial development of the EPIC model in 1989, the EPIC plant growth component has been incorporated into other erosion and crop management models (e.g., WEPS, WEPP, SWAT, ALMANAC, and GPFARM) and subsequently modified to meet research objectives of the model developers. This has resulted in different versions of the same base plant growth component. The objectives of this study are the following: (1) describe the standalone Unified Plant Growth Model (UPGM), initially derived from the WEPS plant growth model, to be used for merging enhancements from other EPIC-based plant growth models; and (2) describe and evaluate new phenology, seedling emergence, and canopy height sub-models derived from the Phenology Modular Modeling System (PhenologyMMS V1.2) and incorporated into UPGM. A 6-year (2005–2010) irrigated maize (Zea mays L.) study from northeast Colorado was used to calibrate and evaluate UPGM running both the original (i.e., based on WEPS) and new phenology, seedling emergence, and canopy height sub-models. Model statistics indicated the new sub-models usually resulted in better simulation results than the original sub-models. For example when comparing original and new sub-models, respectively, for predicting canopy height, the root mean square error (RMSE) was 53.7 and 40.7 cm, index of agreement (d) was 0.84 and 0.92, relative error (RE) was 26.0 and ?1.26 %, and normalized objective function (NOF) was 0.47 and 0.33. The new sub-models predict leaf number (old sub-models do not), with mean values for 4 years of 2.43 leaves (RMSE), 0.78 (d), 18.38 % (RE), and 0.27 (NOF). Simulating grain yield, final above ground biomass, and harvest index showed little difference when running the original or new sub-models. Both the new phenology and seedling emergence sub-models respond to varying water deficits, increasing the robustness of UPGM for more diverse environmental conditions. Future research will continue working to incorporate existing enhancements from other EPIC-based plant growth models to unify them into one model such as multispecies competition and N cycling.     

The Impact of the Extreme Amazonian Flood Season on the Incidence of Viral Gastroenteritis Cases

During the Amazonian flood season in 2012, the Negro River reached its highest level in 110 years, submerging residential and commercial areas which appeared associated with an elevation in the observed gastroenteritis cases in the city of Manaus. The aim of this study was to evaluate the microbiological water quality of the Negro River basin during this extreme flood to investigate this apparent association between the illness cases and the population exposed to the contaminated waters. Forty water samples were collected and analysed for classic and emerging enteric viruses. Human adenoviruses, group A rotaviruses and genogroup II noroviruses were detected in 100, 77.5 and 27.5% of the samples, respectively, in concentrations of 10³–10⁶ GC/L. All samples were compliant with local bacteriological standards. HAdV2 and 41 and RVA G2, P[6], and P[8] were characterised. Astroviruses, sapoviruses, genogroup IV noroviruses, klasseviruses, bocaviruses and aichiviruses were not detected. Statistical analyses showed correlations between river stage level and reported gastroenteritis cases and, also, significant differences between virus concentrations during this extreme event when compared with normal dry seasons and previous flood seasons of the Negro River. These findings suggest an association between the extreme flood experienced and gastrointestinal cases in the affected areas providing circumstantial evidence of causality between the elevations in enteric viruses in surface waters and reported illness.     

Integrating livelihoods and conservation in protected areas: understanding the role and stakeholder views on prospects for non-timber forest products,a Bangladesh case study

Protected areas (PAs) represent a key global strategy in biodiversity conservation. In tropical developing countries, the management of PAs is a great challenge as many contain resources on which local communities rely. Collection and trading of non-timber forest products (NTFPs) is a well-established forest-based livelihood strategy, which has been promoted as a potential means for enhanced conservation and improved rural livelihoods in recent years, even though the sustainability or ecological implications have rarely been tested. We conducted an exploratory survey to understand the role and stakeholder views on conservation prospects and perceived ecological feasibility of NTFPs and harvesting schemes in a northeastern PA of Bangladesh, namely the Satchari National Park. Households (n?=?101) were interviewed from three different forest dependency categories, adopting a stratified random sampling approach and using a semi-structured questionnaire. The study identified 13 locally important NTFPs, with five being critically important to supporting local livelihoods. Our study suggests that collection, processing and trading in NTFPs constitutes the primary occupation for about 18% of local inhabitants and account for an estimated 19% of their cash annual income. The household consensus on issues relating to NTFPs and their prospective role in conservation was surprisingly high, with 48% of respondents believing that promotion of NTFPs in the PA could have positive conservation value. The majority (71%) of households also had some understanding of the ecological implications of NTFP harvesting, sustainability (53%) and possible management and monitoring regimes (100%). With little known about their real application in the field, our study suggests further investigations are required to understand the ecological compatibility of traditional NTFP harvesting patterns and management.     

Cold comfort: Arctic seabirds find refugia from climate change and potential competition in marginal ice zones and fjords

Climate change alters species distributions by shifting their fundamental niche in space through time. Such effects may be exacerbated by increased inter-specific competition if climate alters species dominance where competitor ranges overlap. This study used census data, telemetry and stable isotopes to examine the population and foraging ecology of a pair of Arctic and temperate congeners across an extensive zone of sympatry in Iceland, where sea temperatures varied substantially. The abundance of Arctic Brünnich’s guillemot Uria lomvia declined with sea temperature. Accessibility of refugia in cold water currents or fjords helped support higher numbers and reduce rates of population decline. Competition with temperate Common guillemots Uria aalge did not affect abundance, but similarities in foraging ecology were sufficient to cause competition when resources are limiting. Continued warming is likely to lead to further declines of Brünnich’s guillemot, with implications for conservation status and ecosystem services.Supplementary InformationThe online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1007/s13280-021-01650-7.     

Why geese benefit from the transition from natural vegetation to agriculture

The energy and nutrient content of most agricultural crops are as good as or superior to natural foods for wild geese and they tend to be available in agricultural landscapes in far greater abundance. Artificial grasslands (fertilised native swards and intensively managed reseeds) offer far superior quality forage and higher intake rates than seminatural or natural grasslands. The availability of such abundant artificial food explains the abandonment of traditional habitats for farmland by geese over the last 50–100 years and favours no reduction in current levels of exploitation of agriculture. Continental scale spatial and temporal shifts among geese undergoing spring fattening confirm their flexibility to respond rapidly to broadscale changes in agriculture. These dramatic changes support the hypothesis that use of agricultural landscapes has contributed to elevated reproductive success and that European and North American farmland currently provides unrestricted winter carrying capacity for goose populations formerly limited by wetlands habitats prior to the agrarian revolution of the last century.     

Crowded skies: Conflicts between expanding goose populations and aviation safety

We here review the collision risks posed by large-bodied, flocking geese to aircraft, exacerbated by recent major increases in northern hemisphere goose populations and air traffic volume. Mitigation of goose–aircraft strike risks requires knowledge of local goose movements, global goose population dynamics and ecology. Airports can minimise goose strikes by managing habitats within the airport property, applying deterrents to scare geese away and lethal control, but goose migration and movements at greater spatial scales present greater challenges. Habitat management outside of airports can locally reduce goose attractiveness of peripheral areas, but requires stakeholder involvement and coordination. Information on bird strike rates, individual goose movements and goose population dynamics is essential to understand how best to reduce the risk of goose strikes. Avian radar provides tactical information for mitigation measures and strategic data on local patterns of goose migration and habitat use. In the face of expanding air traffic, goose distributions and populations, these threats need to be integrated with other local, national and international stakeholder involvement to secure viable solutions to multiple conflicts.     

Drain-blocking techniques on blanket peat: A framework for best practice

In recent years there has been a dramatic increase in artificial drain-blocking in world peatlands. The UK blanket peatlands have been severely drained over the past few decades but now drains are being blocked in an attempt to improve peatland environments. The drain-blocking has been a disparate process with limited knowledge transfer between organisations and within organisations operating in different geographic areas. Consequently, there has been no compilation of techniques used and their effectiveness. During this study thirty-two drain-blocked sites were surveyed and all the key stakeholders interviewed. Drain-blocking using peat turf was preferred by practitioners and was also the most cost-effective method. Peat turves were successful except on steep slopes, in areas of severe erosion, in very wet or very dry locations, or if the mineral substrate was exposed. A drain-blocking best practice guide is offered by this paper, providing information on the most suitable methods for blocking peatland drains under different circumstances. Additional considerations are provided for practitioners to ensure peatland drain-blocking is as successful as possible.     

Status and trends of tundra birds across the circumpolar Arctic

Tundra-breeding birds face diverse conservation challenges, from accelerated rates of Arctic climate change to threats associated with highly migratory life histories. Here we summarise the status and trends of Arctic terrestrial birds (88 species, 228 subspecies or distinct flyway populations) across guilds/regions, derived from published sources, raw data or, in rare cases, expert opinion. We report long-term trends in vital rates (survival, reproduction) for the handful of species and regions for which these are available. Over half of all circumpolar Arctic wader taxa are declining (51% of 91 taxa with known trends) and almost half of all waterfowl are increasing (49% of 61 taxa); these opposing trends have fostered a shift in community composition in some locations. Declines were least prevalent in the African-Eurasian Flyway (29%), but similarly prevalent in the remaining three global flyways (44–54%). Widespread, and in some cases accelerating, declines underscore the urgent conservation needs faced by many Arctic terrestrial bird species.     

Collaborative assessment of California spiny lobster population and fishery responses to a marine reserve network

Assessments of the conservation and fisheries effects of marine reserves typically focus on single reserves where sampling occurs over narrow spatiotemporal scales. A strategy for broadening the collection and interpretation of data is collaborative fisheries research (CFR). Here we report results of a CFR program formed in part to test whether reserves at the Santa Barbara Channel Islands, USA, influenced lobster size and trap yield, and whether abundance changes in reserves led to spillover that influenced trap yield and effort distribution near reserve borders. Industry training of scientists allowed us to sample reserves with fishery relevant metrics that we compared with pre-reserve fishing records, a concurrent port sampling program, fishery effort patterns, the local ecological knowledge (LEK) of fishermen, and fishery-independent visual surveys of lobster abundance. After six years of reserve protection, there was a four- to eightfold increase in trap yield, a 5-10% increase in the mean size (carapace length) of legal sized lobsters, and larger size structure of lobsters trapped inside vs. outside of three replicate reserves. Patterns in trap data were corroborated by visual scuba surveys that indicated a four- to sixfold increase in lobster density inside reserves. Population increases within reserves did not lead to increased trap yields or effort concentrations (fishing the line) immediately outside reserve borders. The absence of these catch and effort trends, which are indicative of spillover, may be due to moderate total mortality (Z = 0.59 for legal sized lobsters outside reserves), which was estimated from analysis of growth and length frequency data collected as part of our CFR program. Spillover at the Channel Islands reserves may be occurring but at levels that are insufficient to influence the fishery dynamics that we measured. Future increases in fishing effort (outside reserves) and lobster biomass (inside reserves) are likely and may lead to increased spillover, and CFR provides an ideal platform for continued assessment of fishery-reserve interactions.